Haida Gwaii Quake & Tsunami Advisories

Credit USGS

 

 

# 6672

 

Overnight, while I was offline, a 7.7 quake struck the sparsely populated Haida Gwaii region, or Queen Charlotte Islands, on the northern coast of British Columbia. 

 

There are no reports, as yet, on injuries or damages.  Since the initial quake, there have been dozens of aftershocks, some as strong as 5.1.

 

Crawford Kilian, over at Crofsblog, lives south of there on Vancouver Island, and has blogged a number of times on the quake including here, here, and here.

 

Although a minor tsunami was apparently generated, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has recently downgraded the earlier alerts for Hawaii with the following advisory.

 

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER  10

NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
101 AM HST SUN OCT 28 2012

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI ADVISORY

THE TSUNAMI WARNING IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.

A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE

AT 1254 AM HST.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

   ORIGIN TIME - 0504 PM HST 27 OCT 2012
   COORDINATES - 52.8 NORTH  131.8 WEST
   LOCATION    - QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION

   MAGNITUDE   - 7.7  MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA THE TSUNAMI THREAT HAS DECREASED AND IS NOW AT THE ADVISORY LEVEL AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SEA  LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG CURRENTS MAY STILL OCCUR ALONG ALL COASTS  THAT COULD BE A HAZARD TO SWIMMERS AND BOATERS AS WELL AS TO PERSONS  NEAR THE SHORE AT BEACHES AND IN HARBORS AND MARINAS. THE THREAT  MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

 

 

During the summer of 2011 I wrote extensively on Canada & the United State’s west coast earthquake and tsunami threat in a blog called Just A Matter Of Time.

 

The location of this quake, well north of the populated centers of Vancouver and Washington state, greatly diminished its impact. 

 

The next time, we may not be so lucky.

 

Which is why, 10 days ago, more than a half million residents of British Columbia took part in The Great British Columbia Shakeout drill.

 

 

They, along with a dozen other regions around the world, practiced Drop, Cover, and Hold On! as part of this yearly event (see NPM12: A Whole Lotta Shakeouts Going On).

 

A destructive quake somewhere along the Pacific Northwest coast is, as I said earlier, just a matter of time. We can’t predict when, and we certainly can’t stop it from happening.

Leaving being ready for it as the only logical recourse.

 

For a comprehensive guide on how you can prepare for `the big one’ (even if you live someplace other than Los Angeles), I would recommend you download, read, and implement the advice provided by the The L. A. County Emergency Survival Guide.

 

Everyone should have a disaster plan.  Everyone should have a good first aid kit, a `bug-out bag’, and sufficient emergency supplies to last a bare minimum of 72 hours.

 

For more on  disaster preparedness, I would invite you to visit:

 

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

The L. A. County Emergency Survival Guide

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

»» Read More

Japan’s Earthquake: Learning from Megadisasters

 

 

# 6588

 

 

We are a little more than 18 months since the Great Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011 - and while much progress has been made - much work still remains ahead to safely secure the damaged nuclear reactors, and to rebuild shattered lives and communities.

 

The events of March 11th, 2011 were far more complex and devastating than any emergency plan had previously considered;  A 9.0 earthquake spawning a massive tsunami, that would not only demolish coastal towns killing thousands, but would heavily damage nuclear power facilities as well.

 

While the term megadisaster is often bandied about, in this instance, it is an appropriate description. 

 

Via Reliefweb, we’ve the first phase of a joint project by the GFDRR, the Government of Japan, and the World Bank that should be of particular interest to emergency management officials and planners around the world:

 

The Great East Japan Earthquake: Learning from Megadisasters

Report

Download PDF (661.78 KB) Knowledge Notes Executive Summary

Download PDF (374.64 KB) Brochure

<EXCERPT>

Learning from Megadisasters, a knowledge-sharing project sponsored by the Government of Japan and the World Bank, is collecting and analyzing information, data, and evaluations performed by academic and research institutions, nongovernmental organizations, government agencies, and the private sector—all with the objective of sharing Japan’s knowledge on disaster risk management (DRM) and postdisaster reconstruction with countries vulnerable to disasters.  The World Bank and the Japanese government hope that these findings will encourage countries to mainstream DRM in their development policies and planning.

(Continue . . . )

»» Read More

Hawaii & Japan Tsunami Advisories

 

**** UPDATE:  USGS lowers Magnitude to 7.6 ****

**** UPDATE: Tsunami Watch For Hawaii Cancelled ****

BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER   2
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
331 AM HST FRI AUG 31 2012

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WATCH CANCELLATION

THE EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE IS REDUCED.

THE TSUNAMI WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE
AT 0331 AM HST.

USGS Shake map

 

# 6528

 

Although it is not yet known whether a tsunami was generated by the 7.9 earthquake that occurred within the last hour east of the Philippines, Japan has issued a tsunami advisory, and Hawaii is under a tsunami watch.

 

This from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

 

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WATCH

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT 0257 AM HST.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

   ORIGIN TIME - 0248 AM HST 31 AUG 2012
   COORDINATES - 10.9 NORTH  127.1 EAST
   LOCATION    - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
   MAGNITUDE   - 7.9  MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A TSUNAMI MAY HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY THIS EARTHQUAKE THAT COULD BE DESTRUCTIVE ON COASTAL AREAS EVEN
FAR FROM THE EPICENTER. AN INVESTIGATION IS UNDERWAY TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS A TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

IF TSUNAMI WAVES IMPACT HAWAII THE ESTIMATED EARLIEST ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS

                     1228 PM HST FRI 31 AUG 2012

MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT

 

 

Meanwhile, Japan’s Meteorological Agency has issued a Tsunami advisory for what may be a .5 meter tidal wave.

**********About Tsunami Forecast************
<Tsunami Advisory>
Tsunami height is expected to be about 0.5 meters. Attention advised.

******* Earthquake Information ********

Occurred at 
21:48 JST 31 Aug 2012

Region name 
PHILIPPINES AND ITS VICINITY

Latitude 10.9N

Longitude 127.1E

Depth Unknown

Magnitude  7.9

 

UPDATE:  No Destructive Tsunami Expected Along West Coast

 

To: U.S. West Coast, Alaska, and British Columbia coastal regions

From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center

Subject: Tsunami Information Statement #2 issued 08/31/2012 at 6:36AM PDT

This message is updated with REVISED MAGNITUDE OF 7.6.

A strong earthquake has occurred, but a tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, or Alaska coast. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.

A damaging tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska coasts although some of these areas may experience non-damaging sea level changes.

At 5:48 AM Pacific Daylight Time on August 31, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 7.6 occurred in the Philippine Islands region . (Refer to the United States Geological Survey for official earthquake parameters.)

Pacific coastal regions outside California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska should refer to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages for information on the event.

This will be the final statement issued for this event by the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center unless conditions warrant. See the WCATWC web site for basic tsunami information, safety rules, and a tsunami travel time map. (NOTE: Travel time maps indicate forecasted times only, not that a wave was generated.)

»» Read More

Philippines: 7.9 Quake & Tsunami Warning

****  UPDATE:  USGS lowers Magnitude to 7.6 ****

**** UPDATE: Tsunami Watch For Hawaii Cancelled ****

USGS Earthquake Map

 

# 6527

 

Preliminary reports indicate that a 7.9 magnitude quake has struck east of the Philippines, and a Tsunami warning and watch have been issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

 

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001

PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1255Z 31 AUG 2012

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR   INDONESIA / PHILIPPINES / BELAU / YAP / TAIWAN / JAPAN / GUAM / N. MARIANAS / PAPUA NEW GUINEA

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR   CHUUK / MARCUS IS. / KOSRAE / POHNPEI / MARSHALL IS. /
WAKE IS. / SOLOMON IS. / RUSSIA / NAURU

FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN... IT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.

 

 

At this time, we’ve no reports of damage, and we do not know whether a tsunami was generated, only that one is possible.

 

»» Read More

East Coast Tsunami Threats

# 6448

 

East Coast tsunamis, while admittedly rare – do occur - and history has shown that they can be extremely destructive.  Last March in Tsunami Awareness Week: March 20th – 26th I wrote about a list of known or suspected Atlantic and East Coast Tsunamis which included:

 

• November 1, 1755 - Lisbon, Portugal
• October 11, 1918 - Puerto Rico
• November 18, 1929 - Newfoundland
• August 4, 1946 - Dominican Republic
• August 18, 1946 - Dominican Republic
• November 14, 1840 - Great Swell on the Delaware River
• November 17, 1872 - Maine
• January 9, 1926 - Maine
• May 19, 1964 - Northeast USA

  POSSIBLE TSUNAMI

• June 9, 1913 - Longport, NJ
• August 6, 1923 - Rockaway Park, Queens, NY. An article on triplicate waves."
• August 8, 1924 - Coney Island, NY. Contains a discussion, “An Observed Tsunami Building In Coastal Waters?"
• August 19, 1931 - Atlantic City, NJ
• September 21, 1938 - Hurricane, NJ coast.
• July 3-4, 1992 - Daytona Beach, FL

 

 

While little remembered today, in November of 1929 a destructive North Atlantic tsunami came ashore after a 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck offshore from Newfoundland.  Three hours later a 3 to 4 meter tsunami washed across many coastal fishing villages on the Burin Peninsula, killing 28 people and leaving as many as 10,000 homeless.

 

In the spring of 2011 we took  A Look At Europe’s Seismic Risks, which gave details on the mother-of-all Altantic basin tsunamis, which was generated by the Lisbon Earthquake  of 1755 (Est. 8.5 magnitude).

 

Tremendous tsunamis (20+ meters) were reported in Northern Africa, Spain and Portugal, and smaller waves washed ashore in the Caribbean and the Atlantic Coast of the New World many hours later. 

 

Tsunami Travel Times from the 1755 Quake – Credit Wikipedia

 

Although accurate numbers are impossible to come by, in Lisbon alone the death toll is estimated at between 10,000 and 100,000.  Most historians place the number at the high end of that range.

 

While far less common that their Pacific counterparts, east coast tsunamis - by reason of geography, population density, and a general lack of public awareness - have the potential to be extremely dangerous.

 

Courtesy of a tweet from FEMA Director Craig Fugate yesterday, I found this fascinating slideshow training presentation on the East Coast Tsunami Threat that expands considerably on my earlier blog post.

 

One of the most remarkable slides in this 29 minute presentation shows that while they happen less often than Pacific tsunamis, historically the east coast death toll is almost as great as those from the west coast.

 

 

Depending upon the type of precipitating event (seismic activty, landslide, asteroid/meteor impact, etc) and the location, tsunami travel and warning times around the Atlantic will vary from minutes to many hours.

 

 

 

You can access current Tsunami warnings and arrival times at the  Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

 

As far as what to do before a tsunami threatens, READY.GOV has a Tsunami Awareness Page with helpful hints.

 

While it may seem unlikely that a tsunami will affect you or your region - this is just one of many potential hazards that may threaten you and your community - and they all require similar preparedness steps.

 

Knowing your local threats, whether they be tsunamis, forest fires, floods, earthquakes or hurricanes  . . . and then becoming prepared to deal with them, will provide you and your family the best safety insurance available.

 

To become better prepared, visit the Ready.gov site today.

Credit Ready.gov

 

To learn how to prepare as an individual, family, business owner, or community I would invite you to visit the following sites and use THIS LINK to access some of my preparedness blogs.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

»» Read More

Video: Three Congressional Hazards Briefings

 

May 22, 2011, a Level 5 tornado  Joplin, Missouri

# 6318

 

While tabloid newspapers and apocalyptic websites seem obsessed with 2012 Mayan prophecies and extinction level events, genuine emergency managers, scientists, and policy makers are focused on far more likely disasters.

 

Earthquakes, tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, pandemics, and even tsunamis.

 

Disasters that not only happen with some regularity, but that are actually - with a bit of preparation - survivable.

 

Recently the Congressional Hazards Caucus sponsored three public briefings in Washington D.C. focusing on Earthquakes, Tornadoes, and Tsunamis.

 

Videos of all three briefing are available online, and they provide a fascinating look at not only the potential for disasters here in the United States, but at some of the steps that are being taken to reduce or mitigate their effects.

 

First stop, a Public Briefing on Saving Lives in the Path of Destructive Tornadoes, held on March 29th at the Rayburn House Office Building.

From the Invitation Flyer PDF.

                                                                                Speakers

Veronica Johnson, Broadcast Meteorologist, NBC4 Washington (Moderator)

Dr. David Stensrud, Chief, Forecast Research and Development Division, National Severe Storms Laboratory

Keith Stammer, Director, Emergency Management Division, Joplin/Jasper County, Missouri

Julie Demuth, Scientist, Societal Impacts Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Next, a public briefing on Faults in the East - New Madrid Seismic Zone and Recent Virginia Earthquake - Understanding Risks, again held on March 29 at the Rayburn House Office Building.

From the Invitation Flyer PDF.

 

Moderator:

David B. Spears, Virginia State Geologist, Virginia Department of Mines, Minerals and Energy, Charlottesville, Virginia

Speakers:
J. Wright Horton, Jr., U.S. Geological Survey, National Center, Reston, Virginia
Learning from the 2011 Virginia Earthquake (3 Mb PDF)

Charles A. Langston, Director of the Center for Earthquake Research and Information, University of Memphis, Memphis, Tennessee
Understanding Earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (4.6 Mb PDF)

James M. Wilkinson, Jr., Executive Director of the Central United States Earthquake Consortium, Memphis, Tennessee
Planning, Preparing, and Responding to Earthquake Risks in the Central United States (1.8 Mb PDF)

 

 

And for our last stop, a public briefing on  Tsunami Preparedness: Understanding our Nation's Risk and Response, this time held March 21 at the Rayburn Office Building.

 

From the  Invitation Flyer PDF.

 

Speakers:
Eddie Bernard, Scientist Emeritus, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Presentation: Local Tsunami Warnings: Can the U.S. Do It? (PDF)

 

John Orcutt, Distinguished Professor of Geophysics at Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Presentation: Tsunami Warning and Preparedness: An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and Tsunami Preparedness (PDF)

 

John Schelling, Earthquake/Tsunami Program Manager for Washington State Emergency Management Division
Presentation: State & National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Programs: Increasing our Nation's Overall Resilience to Tsunamis (PDF)

 

 

 

 

These are sober presentations by serious scientists, and the events they talk of are – over time – pretty much inevitable.  

 

The unknowns are when, exactly where, and how bad they will be.

 

Which is why emergency managers around the country urge individual, family, and business preparedness, telling everyone to  GET A KIT, MAKE A PLAN, and BE INFORMED.

 

Credit Ready.gov

 

Everyone needs an appropriate disaster plan, just as everyone should have a good first aid kit, a `bug-out bag’, and sufficient emergency supplies to last a bare minimum of 72 hours.

 

For more on  disaster preparedness, I would invite you to visit Ready.gov or revisit these blogs:

 

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

The Gift Of Preparedness 2011

»» Read More

OCHA: Yesterday’s Tsunami Alert Response Timeline

 

 

# 6277

 

 

Yesterday’s 8.6 magnitude earthquake off the northern shore of Sumatra did not end up generating a devastating tsunami, but that bit of good fortune wasn’t apparent until several hours after the event.

 

For a time vulnerable coastal regions across the Indian ocean were under a tsunami watch, and evacuations were ordered in some areas.

 

Below you’ll find a graphic from OCHA (the United Nation’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs), showing the alert response across the Indian ocean.

 

The timeline, showing the first quake and warnings, followed 2 hours later by a second 8.2 quake, are excerpted below.

 

 

 

After the tremendous earthquake and tsunami that devastated many coastal regions across the Indian ocean in 2005, tsunami warnings and preparedness have been taken far more seriously.

 

Last year’s earthquake/tsunami in Japan only reinforced the need for timely warnings and evacuations. 

 

For the most up-to-date tsunami information for the Pacific, Indian Ocean, and the Caribbean you will want to bookmark the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

 

 

As you can see, yesterday’s Sumatran earthquake have now slipped to positions 3 & 4, with 2 strong quakes in Baja California overnight. 

 

Neither of these most recent quakes produced a tidal wave.

 

For more on tsunami preparedness, you may wish to revisit a blog from last month called Tsunami: The Other Coastal Threat.

There I wrote about the history of tsunamis that have struck along the Atlantic coastline, and provided information and links for National Tsunami Preparedness Week.

 

 

As I wrote last month . . .

 

Tsunamis are relatively rare, but they are just one of many potential threats, which is why most experts recommend an `all threats’ preparedness strategy.

 

Disasters happen.

 

And so you need to have adequate emergency supplies (including a good first aid kit), a NOAA weather radio, and a disaster plan, in order to give you and your family the best protection.

 

Good places to get preparedness information include:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS

http://www.redcross.org/

 

And you can click the following link to search this blog for my PREPAREDNESS ESSAYS.

»» Read More

Indian Ocean Tsunami Watch Canceled

 

# 6275

 

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has lifted the Tsunami watch for the Sumatran earthquakes, stating that while a significant tsunami was generated, the threat appears to have passed.

 

First some excerpts from the PTWC alert, then I’ll be back with a little more on why some undersea earthquakes generate large tsunamis and others do not.

 

 

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 006

PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1236Z 11 APR 2012

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.

... THE TSUNAMI WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR BOTH MAIN SHOCK

AT 0839Z AND AFTERSHOCK AT 1043Z ...

<SNIP>

EVALUATION

A SIGNIFICANT TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED BY THIS EARTHQUAKE.

HOWEVER...SEA LEVEL READINGS NOW INDICATE THAT THE THREAT HAS  DIMINISHED OR IS OVER FOR MOST AREAS.  THEREFORE THE TSUNAMI  WATCH ISSUED BY THIS CENTER IS NOW CANCELLED.

 

 

As to why some large undersea earthquakes produce tremendous tsunamis – such as the 30+ meter tidal waves that struck Japan last year – and others do not, it depends primarily on the type of fault line where the earthquake occurs.

 

Strike-Slip faults cause earth movements that are primarily horizontal, and are less likely to produce large tsunamis.

 

Credit http://quake.abag.ca.gov/

 

Thrust faults produce an upward movement of the earth, and these are capable of producing very large tsunamis.

 

Credit http://quake.abag.ca.gov/

 

The reality is that most quakes involve some degree of both types of earth movement.

Those with significant amount of vertical and horizontal earth movement are called an oblique-slip quakes.

 

Credit Wikipedia

 

The amount of upward thrust generated by an undersea quake will have a direct bearing on the size of any tsunami that may be generated.

 

It would appear, based on the reports so far, that today’s Sumatran earthquake produced relatively little upward thrust, and therefore only minor tsunamis.

»» Read More

Strong Aftershocks Strike Off Sumatra

SEE UPDATE : Indian Ocean Tsunami Watch Canceled

# 6273

 

 

According to the USGS, several strong aftershocks - including one measuring a remarkable 8.2 magnitude - have struck off the coast of Sumatra over the past couple of hours in the wake of today’s 8.6 magnitude quake.

 

For details on the earlier quake and tsunami watch, check here and here.

 

 

 

Details on the largest of these aftershocks follow:

 

 

This quake is large enough that extensions and revisions to the existing tsunami watches may be required, particularly close to the epicenter.

 

Travel times for any tsunami that may have been generated by this aftershock are displayed in the NOAA map below:

 

»» Read More

Sumatra Tsunami Travel Times

SEE UPDATE: Indian Ocean Tsunami Watch Canceled

 

 

# 6272

 

 

Although we have no information as yet on the size of any tsunami that may have been generated by this morning’s 8.6 Magnitude earthquake off of Sumatra (see Sumatra: 8.6 Magnitude Earthquake & Indian Ocean Tsunami Watch), the following map shows the estimated travel times for any tidal waves.

 

 

 

Source NOAA  West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center.

 

 

As far as the Pacific and the west coast of the United states are concerned, there are no watches and warnings issued for this event.

 

»» Read More

Japan: Quake/Tsunami Risks Greater Than Previously Thought

 

Credit Wikipedia

# 6255

 

We’ve two seismic studies announced today in Japan - one regarding Tokyo’s vulnerability to a major earthquake and the other on the tsunami risk that would result from an offshore earthquake in the Nankai Trough.

 

Both substantially escalate the amount of damage that could be expected over previous estimates.

 

First stop, the Nankai quake scenario, as reported by the Japan Times.

 

 

20-meter tsunami projected from Honshu to Kyushu

Nankai quake scenario menaces Pacific coast

Kyodo

Wide swaths of the Pacific coastline stretching from Honshu to Kyushu may be hit by tsunami over 20 meters high if a newly feared megaquake occurs in the Nankai Trough, a Cabinet Office panel warned Saturday.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

Kuroshio, Kochi Prefecture could see a tsunami up to 34.4 meters (112 feet, or as high as a 10 story building), while parts of Shizuoka, Kochi and Miyazaki prefectures could see tidal waves of 10 to 20 meters.

 

Such an earthquake could send tsunami waves towards other Pacific shorelines, as well.

 

The second announcement comes from Japan’s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) which has determined that the fault line lying under Tokyo is shallower than previously thought, and capable of producing more damage than had been earlier estimated.

This report from Reuters:

 

Major quake impact on Tokyo could be worse than thought-study

31 Mar 2012 09:10

Source: reuters // Reuters

TOKYO, March 31 (Reuters) - The impact on Tokyo from a major quake could be much more devastating than the government has predicted, a new study shows.

 

The study by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology comes just over a year after one of the biggest tremors on record struck Japan'se northeast coast, triggering a massive tsunami and the world's worst nuclear crisis in 25 years.

(Continue . . .)

 

 

You may recall that a couple of months ago (see Academics Debate Odds Of Tokyo Earthquake) we saw a report indicating that some scientists believe that the odds of a major earthquake striking Tokyo (previously estimated at 70% within 30 years) are overly optimistic, and that there is a 70% chance of a major Tokyo quake in the next four years.

 

And last year, in Divining Japan’s Seismic Future, I wrote about the most widely anticipated seismic event for Japan - the Tokai Earthquake – expected to be an 8+ magnitude, and forecast to occur between the Bay of Suruga and Cape Omasezaki in Shizuoka Prefecture sometime in the near future.

 

 

Major earthquakes have occurred in this region every 100-150 years, with the most recent recorded in 1498, 1605, 1707 and 1854.

 

That puts the Tokai region 157 years since their last major quake, and in the estimation of Dr Kiyoo Mogi – Japan’s leading seismologist – well overdue for another.   In 1969, Dr Mogi began warning that the Tokai area was particularly vulnerable, and today the area is monitored continually by the JMA.

 

Which is why the Prime Minister of Japan called upon Chubu Electric to shut down its No. 4 and No. 5 reactors at the Hamaoka nuclear plant last May, located roughly 200 km south-west of Tokyo.

 

While all of this is of greatest concern to those living in Japan, a major earthquake in one of the great cities of the world would not only be a horrendous human tragedy, it could cause economic repercussions around the globe.

 

In two blogs from last year we looked at the possible ripple effects of `Global Shocks’.

 

Last December in DFID: World Unprepared For Future Shocks  the UK’s DFID (Department for International Development) warned that with global economies in turmoil, and recessionary fears continuing to spread, finding money for many relief, humanitarian, or other worthwhile projects becomes more difficult.

 

And last July, in (OECD Report: Future Global Shocks), where we looked at a 139 page report  released by the OECD (The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) that warned - as the world becomes more interconnected and interdependent - that `Global Shocks’ to the world economy become more likely.

 

In the report, they define a Global Shock as: a rapid onset event with severely disruptive consequences covering at least two continents.

They write:

Extremely disruptive events, such as earthquakes, volcanoes, financial crises and political revolutions destabilize critical systems of supply, producing economic spillovers that reach far beyond
their geographical point of origin.

 

While such extreme events have been relatively rare in the past, they seem poised to occur with greater frequency in the future. Global interconnections accompanying economic integration enable some risks to propagate rapidly around the world.

 

 

The bottom line here is that the world is now so interconnected – that while most disasters are localized - their economic and societal impacts can be felt thousands of miles away and can persist for months.

 

Of course Japan doesn’t have the market cornered when it comes to disasters; the United States, Europe, and the rest of the world are all capable of producing equally disruptive global shocks.  

 

Ultimately, a nation’s resilience in the face of a major crisis –whether it be local or global - comes from the bottom up, not from the top down.

 

Which is why agencies, like the ones below, urge greater individual, family, and community preparedness.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

A few of my preparedness blogs from the past include:

 

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

Planning To Survive

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

The Gift Of Preparedness: 2011

»» Read More

Tsunami: The Other Coastal Threat

 

 

 

Photo Credit – NTHMP

 

# 6242

 

 

Although storms remain the biggest threat, last year’s devastating combination earthquake/tsunami in Japan has reinforced concerns that many other coastal regions around the world – including those in the United States – are at risk from destructive tidal waves.

 

While most people automatically think of the Pacific ocean when it comes to America’s vulnerability to tsunamis, the Atlantic seaboard, Florida, and even the Gulf of Mexico are not completely immune to the phenomenon.

 

A list of known or suspected Atlantic Tsunamis includes:

• November 1, 1755 - Lisbon, Portugal
• October 11, 1918 - Puerto Rico
• November 18, 1929 - Newfoundland
• August 4, 1946 - Dominican Republic
• August 18, 1946 - Dominican Republic
• November 14, 1840 - Great Swell on the Delaware River
• November 17, 1872 - Maine
• January 9, 1926 - Maine
• May 19, 1964 - Northeast USA

  POSSIBLE TSUNAMI

• June 9, 1913 - Longport, NJ
• August 6, 1923 - Rockaway Park, Queens, NY. An article on triplicate waves."
• August 8, 1924 - Coney Island, NY. Contains a discussion, “An Observed Tsunami Building In Coastal Waters?"
• August 19, 1931 - Atlantic City, NJ
• September 21, 1938 - Hurricane, NJ coast.
• July 3-4, 1992 - Daytona Beach, FL

 

The last suspected entry – the infamous Daytona Beach `rogue wave’ of 1992 - was described by witnesses as being between 10 and 18 feet tall, slammed onto a 27 mile stretch of Florida Beaches and smashed hundreds of cars and caused as many as 75 (mostly minor) injuries.

 

Hawaii and the west coast are, of course, at considerably greater risk due to the seismically active `ring of fire’.  

 

Perhaps most vulnerable is the Pacific Northwest, where the Cascadia fault line (see Just A Matter Of Time) is believed to have produced tsunamis in the past that rival the tidal waves that struck Japan last year.

 

 

 

All of which helps to explain why the United States government takes the tsunami threat seriously. Tsunamis may not strike often, but when they do, they can be extremely destructive.

 

This coming week (March 25-31st) is National Tsunami Preparedness Week, and you’ll find information on planned activities in many coastal states on the  National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program website.

 

Other resources to check out include the PHE (Public Health Emergency) Website which includes some videos, along with preparedness resources.

 

 

And NOAA’S  National Weather Service  Tsunami Warning Page:

 

 

Since tidal waves may arrive with only minutes warning, it is imperative for those living on or near the coast to have a tsunami plan already in place.

That means having a `bug-out bag’ (see NPM11: When You Have To `Get Out Of Dodge’ In A Hurry), an emergency plan (including emergency rendezvous place), and knowing your evacuation routes off the beach.

 

Tsunamis are relatively rare, but they are just one of many potential threats, which is why most experts recommend an `all threats’ preparedness strategy.

 

Disasters happen.

And so you need to have adequate emergency supplies (including a good first aid kit), a NOAA weather radio, and a disaster plan, in order to give you and your family the best protection.

 

Good places to get preparedness information include:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS

http://www.redcross.org/

 

And you can click the following link to search this blog for my PREPAREDNESS ESSAYS.

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Just A Matter Of Time

 

 

"Time Is What Prevents Everything From Happening At Once.." - John Wheeler, Theoretical Physicist (1911-2008)

 

 

# 5650

 

 

Just over 311 years ago an earthquake and tsunami – likely on par with this year’s disastrous quake in Japan - struck the coastline of the Pacific Northwest.

 

 

While there were no contemporaneous local records kept of the event, roughly 10 hours later an `orphan tsunami’ spawned by this quake struck Japan, where records of such events have been kept for centuries.

Scientists today, looking at sediment levels and tree growth rings, can easily see some of the impact of this great quake.

 

And if you go back through the geological record, you’ll find massive quakes have struck the region at least 7 times over the past 3500 years. Given enough time, another is sure to strike sometime in the future.

 

Perhaps tomorrow, or perhaps not for hundreds of years.  

 

Fortunately, the last great event occurred at a time when that region of the world was sparsely inhabited – more than a hundred years before the celebrated Lewis & Clarke expedition.

 

Little was known about that part of the world at the time, and cartographers left that portion of the map blank. The map below was drawn roughly 20 years after this last great quake.

 

 

But today, millions of people live along the coastline that runs from Vancouver Island to Northern California, and another megathrust quake could kill thousands, injure tens of thousands, and deliver a terrible economic blow.

 

While Southern California gets most of the press when it comes to earthquake concerns, the potential for a truly great quake (8.0+ mag.) is actually higher in Seattle.

 

After the recent Ring Of Fire earthquakes in Chile, New Zealand, and Japan – and the devastating Indonesian earthquake and Tsunami of 2004 – earthquake researchers are speaking with renewed urgency about the potential for seismic destruction and the need to prepare.

 

An Active Ring of Fire

Original Map – USGS

 

 

This week geologists met in Portland, Oregon to discuss what they consider to be an inevitable event – another megathrust earthquake along the Cascadian fault line.

 

Details of that meeting, and an interview with Oregon State University Professor Chris Goldfinger, appear in yesterday’s Oregonian.

 

Experts say an earthquake surely will devastate the Northwest

Published: Friday, June 24, 2011, 9:26 PM     By Richard Read, The Oregonian 

 

A brief tour this morning of some videos on the Cascadian earthquake threat, and a referral to a couple of preparedness sites.

 

First stop, a short demonstration of an earthquake model by University of Washington Seismologist William Steele in this KOMO News feature.

 

 

Next stop, a simulation from the Washington State Department of Transportation that shows the likely effects on the Alaskan Way Viaduct, part of Washington's State Route 99, and adjacent seawall from a 7.0 earthquake.

 

 

A bit less dramatic perhaps, but extremely informative, is the 35 minute science lecture by Geologist Brian Atwater, PhD, of the USGS and University of Washington, who discusses the 1700 Cascadian earthquake and the `orphan tsunami’ that struck Japan.

 

 

Dr. Atwater is also one of the authors of the 140 page USGS paper :

 

The Orphan Tsunami of 1700—Japanese Clues to a Parent Earthquake in North America

 

Since we can’t prevent earthquakes, and accurate prediction of when they will occur is beyond our technology, our only recourse is to prepare for them.

 
And that means upgrading building codes, improving emergency services infrastructure and surge capacity, and promoting individual, family, and business preparedness.

 

Last January I profiled a Washington state based preparedness educator Carol Dunn, who maintains an excellent website on the hazards faced by those living in the Pacific Northwest called 2Resilience.

You’ll find numerous resources geared for professional first responders, citizen volunteers, and families, individuals, and businesses looking to improve their level of knowledge and preparedness.

 

Many of us who follow @Caroldn on Twitter find her dedication and enthusiasm on preparedness issues to be quite contagious.  And if your interests lie in that direction I’d certainly recommend you include her feed.

 

Another resource I strongly recommend is Shakeout.org, which promotes yearly earthquake drills and education around the country.

 

 

Upcoming drills include:

 

Future ShakeOuts (new and repeating):

The Great British Columbia ShakeOut, October 20, 2011, with 780 participants currently (2010: 470,000)

The Great California ShakeOut, October 20, 2011, with 6.4 million participants currently (2010: 7.9 million)

The Great Nevada ShakeOut, October 20, 2011, with 389 participants currently (2010: 110,000)

The Great Guam ShakeOut, October 20, 2011, with 21 participants currently (2010: 38,000)

The Great Utah ShakeOut, April 17, 2012, with over 110,000 participants

 

For more on how you can prepare for `the big one’ (even if you live someplace other than Los Angeles), I would recommend you download, read, and implement the advice provided by the The L. A. County Emergency Survival Guide.

 

To become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with these types of disasters: visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

Because no matter where you live, its just a matter of time before the next disaster strikes.

»» Read More

7.4 Mag Aftershock Hits Japan

 

UPDATE #2:  As of 1135 hrs 4/711 -  As often happens, the initial readings on earthquakes can bounce around a bit as more data comes in. 

Right now, the USGS is showing this as a 7.1 Magnitude with a depth of 49km. 

These numbers may well change again before they are finalized.

UPDATE #1: as of 1112hrs 4/7/11 -  The USGS has revised the depth of this earthquake to 25.6 km.

NHK World News is broadcasting live from Tokyo on the situation.

 

 

# 5475

 

 

Scientists have been warning for a month that another 7+ aftershock could strike northern Japan, and a short time ago one did.

 

This aftershock registered as being 40 km deep, which is considerably deeper than the massive quake that struck on March 11th.

 

So far, we’ve received no word on damages.

 

 

While a local Tsunami advisory has been issued, NO PACIFIC WIDE TSUNAMI THREAT is anticipated.

 

The following statement comes from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

 

000
WEHW42 PHEB 071442
TIBHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-071642-
TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER   1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
442 AM HST THU APR 07 2011

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII
SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

   ORIGIN TIME - 0432 AM HST 07 APR 2011
   COORDINATES - 38.2 NORTH  142.0 EAST
   LOCATION    - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU  JAPAN
   MAGNITUDE   - 7.4  MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS  NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A  DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.

»» Read More