East Coast Tsunami Threats

# 6448

 

East Coast tsunamis, while admittedly rare – do occur - and history has shown that they can be extremely destructive.  Last March in Tsunami Awareness Week: March 20th – 26th I wrote about a list of known or suspected Atlantic and East Coast Tsunamis which included:

 

• November 1, 1755 - Lisbon, Portugal
• October 11, 1918 - Puerto Rico
• November 18, 1929 - Newfoundland
• August 4, 1946 - Dominican Republic
• August 18, 1946 - Dominican Republic
• November 14, 1840 - Great Swell on the Delaware River
• November 17, 1872 - Maine
• January 9, 1926 - Maine
• May 19, 1964 - Northeast USA

  POSSIBLE TSUNAMI

• June 9, 1913 - Longport, NJ
• August 6, 1923 - Rockaway Park, Queens, NY. An article on triplicate waves."
• August 8, 1924 - Coney Island, NY. Contains a discussion, “An Observed Tsunami Building In Coastal Waters?"
• August 19, 1931 - Atlantic City, NJ
• September 21, 1938 - Hurricane, NJ coast.
• July 3-4, 1992 - Daytona Beach, FL

 

 

While little remembered today, in November of 1929 a destructive North Atlantic tsunami came ashore after a 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck offshore from Newfoundland.  Three hours later a 3 to 4 meter tsunami washed across many coastal fishing villages on the Burin Peninsula, killing 28 people and leaving as many as 10,000 homeless.

 

In the spring of 2011 we took  A Look At Europe’s Seismic Risks, which gave details on the mother-of-all Altantic basin tsunamis, which was generated by the Lisbon Earthquake  of 1755 (Est. 8.5 magnitude).

 

Tremendous tsunamis (20+ meters) were reported in Northern Africa, Spain and Portugal, and smaller waves washed ashore in the Caribbean and the Atlantic Coast of the New World many hours later. 

 

Tsunami Travel Times from the 1755 Quake – Credit Wikipedia

 

Although accurate numbers are impossible to come by, in Lisbon alone the death toll is estimated at between 10,000 and 100,000.  Most historians place the number at the high end of that range.

 

While far less common that their Pacific counterparts, east coast tsunamis - by reason of geography, population density, and a general lack of public awareness - have the potential to be extremely dangerous.

 

Courtesy of a tweet from FEMA Director Craig Fugate yesterday, I found this fascinating slideshow training presentation on the East Coast Tsunami Threat that expands considerably on my earlier blog post.

 

One of the most remarkable slides in this 29 minute presentation shows that while they happen less often than Pacific tsunamis, historically the east coast death toll is almost as great as those from the west coast.

 

 

Depending upon the type of precipitating event (seismic activty, landslide, asteroid/meteor impact, etc) and the location, tsunami travel and warning times around the Atlantic will vary from minutes to many hours.

 

 

 

You can access current Tsunami warnings and arrival times at the  Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

 

As far as what to do before a tsunami threatens, READY.GOV has a Tsunami Awareness Page with helpful hints.

 

While it may seem unlikely that a tsunami will affect you or your region - this is just one of many potential hazards that may threaten you and your community - and they all require similar preparedness steps.

 

Knowing your local threats, whether they be tsunamis, forest fires, floods, earthquakes or hurricanes  . . . and then becoming prepared to deal with them, will provide you and your family the best safety insurance available.

 

To become better prepared, visit the Ready.gov site today.

Credit Ready.gov

 

To learn how to prepare as an individual, family, business owner, or community I would invite you to visit the following sites and use THIS LINK to access some of my preparedness blogs.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

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A Highly Uncertain Forecast

***UPDATED***

 

As I wrote this morning, the National Hurricane Center’s forecast track for T.S. Debby was apt to change, and as of the 5pm update, it most certainly has. 

 

The new forecast track (above) is still one of relatively `low confidence’, as the storm is moving slowly and steering currents could change. Basically, anyone along the Gulf Coast - from Texas to Florida - needs to keep an eye on this system.

 

11 am Forecast – Now outdated

# 6403

 

 

The 11 am discussion from the National Hurricane Center stresses just how difficult the current forecast for Tropical storm Debby is proving to be.  Model are not even close to consistent right now, with two very different scenarios a possibility.

 

First, here are the latest computer models, from the SWFTMD website. They basically have the storm going in every direction except south-south-west.  Which means that until these models coalesce, the entire gulf coast needs to keep an eye on this storm.

 

 

For now, based on the strength and past performance of some of these models, the NHC is going with a general movement to the west-north-west – putting the northern gulf coast as the likely target.

 

But as of 11 am today, Tropical Storm watches have been raised as far south as Pasco County on the west coast of Florida.  

 

 

The 11 am discussion has Debby reaching minimal hurricane strength over the next several days, but much of that will depend on its ultimate path.

 

As the forecasters warn below WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK AT ANY TIME.

 

WTNT44 KNHC 241458

TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS MORNING. DEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040 AT 3
KNOTS...WHILE THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THIS HAS PROMPTED ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGSAND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA COAST.

 

DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT...PARTICULARLY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECA ST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

 

THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX. THE GFS INSISTS ON A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DEBBY BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE HWRF BUILD A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY AND FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK.  GIVEN THE WESTWARD TURN INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE HISTORICAL STRONG RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY... MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD SOLUTION.  WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK AT ANY TIME.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  24/1500Z 28.0N  86.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 28.5N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 28.5N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 28.5N  86.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  26/1200Z 28.7N  87.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  27/1200Z 29.0N  88.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  28/1200Z 29.5N  90.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 30.0N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

 

And a reminder, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has two Twitter accounts, one for the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea):

U.S. National Hurricane Center (Atlantic) - @NHC_Atlantic

and one for the Eastern North Pacific basin:

U.S. National Hurricane Center (Eastern Pacific) - @NHC_Pacific

In addition to the Twitter notifications, NHC also provides product notifications by email. Please visit hurricanes.gov/signup.shtml to sign up for this service.

And if you aren’t already following

• FEMA
• CraigAtFEMA
• Ready.gov
• Red Cross

on twitter, you might want to add them to your list.

And finally, if you haven’t already downloaded the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so.  It is a short (12-page), easy to follow guide that will walk you through the basics of understanding (and surviving) hurricanes and tropical storms.

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AAP: Warning On Energy Drinks

 

 

# 5584

 

 

Credit- Wikipedia.

 

Over the past couple of years concerns have been raised over the consumption of so-called `energy drinks’, particularly among children and teenagers.

 

These drinks, which usually contain significant doses of caffeine and sugar, along with B vitamins, amino acids, and herbs like acai and Yerba Mate, are supposed to increase alertness and energy.

 

Some brands – which may only be legally sold to adults – contain 10%-12% alcohol.

 

Non-alcoholic versions are often used as `mixers’ for alcohol - a practice reportedly favored by college and teenage drinkers because the caffeine helps produce a `better buzz’.

 

The downside is, it can fool imbibers into believing they are sober when they are not, which can lead to even more drinking and risky behavior.

 

 

Last year these alcohol laced energy drinks came under heavy scrutiny when colleges and universities around the country began to report injuries and blackouts related to the drink's use.

 

The state of Washington banned an alcoholic energy drink called  Four Loko after nine under-aged university students (aged 17 – 19) from Central Washington University fell ill at a house party and were hospitalized. 

 

A number of colleges have recently banned these types of drinks from campus.

 

But even non-alcoholic energy beverages (EBs) have raised concerns. 

 

Excessive consumption has been linked to increased heart rates, hypertension, exacerbation of psychiatric symptoms, and very rarely - sudden cardiac death (cite - Mayo Clinic Proceedings Oct 29, 2010 :Energy Beverages: Content and Safety).

 

The Mayo report, which recommends the consumption of no more than 1 can (500ml) of EBs a day, concludes:

 

Limited ingestion of EBs by healthy people is not likely to cause major adverse effects, but binge consumption or consumption with alcohol may lead to adverse events. Individuals with medical illnesses, especially underlying heart disease, should check with their physician before using EBs, because they may exacerbate their condition.

 

Today, from the American Academy of Pediatrics, we get a stronger warning via this cautionary report on the the dangers inherent in the use of `energy & sports’ drinks by children and teenagers.  

 

The report – which is available online and for free – is called:

 

Clinical Report—Sports Drinks and Energy Drinks for Children and Adolescents: Are They Appropriate?

COMMITTEE ON NUTRITION AND THE COUNCIL ON SPORTS MEDICINE AND FITNESS

 

The `money quote’ from the abstract reads:

 

Rigorous review and analysis of the literature reveal that caffeine and other stimulant substances contained in energy drinks have no place in the diet of children and adolescents.

 

Furthermore, frequent or excessive intake of caloric sports drinks can substantially increase the risk for overweight or obesity in children and adolescents.

This report offers the following clinical guidance to pediatricians:

 

CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: GUIDANCE FOR THE PEDIATRICIAN

Regarding consumption of sports and energy drinks by children and adolescents, the pediatrician is encouraged to:

● Improve the education of children and adolescents and their parents in the area of sports and energy drinks. This education must high-
light the difference between sports drinks and energy drinks and their associated potential
health risks.

 

● Understand that energy drinks pose potential health risks primarily because of stimulant con-
tent; therefore, they are not appropriate for children and adolescents and should never be consumed.

● Counsel that routine ingestion of carbohydrate-containing sports drinks by children and adolescents
should be avoided or restricted. Intake can lead to excessive caloric consumption and an increased risk
of overweight and obesity as well as dental erosion.

 

● Educate patients and families that sports drinks have a specific limited function for child and adolescent athletes. These drinks should be ingested when there is a need for more rapid replenishment of carbohydrates and/or electrolytes in combination with water during periods of prolonged, vigorous sports participation or other intense physical activity.

 

● Promote water, not sports or energy drinks, as the principal source of hydration for children and adolescents.

 

According to a Reuters report this weekend (Stay away from energy drinks, doctors say), the sale of non-alcoholic energy drinks will approach $9 billion dollars in the United States this year – with half of that sold to children and young adults.

 

A factoid that many parents are probably unaware of given that the use of these types of drinks appears to be a generational phenomenon. 

 

Hopefully this report, and the resultant press coverage, will serve as impetus for parents to discuss the risks of  consuming these types of beverages with their children.

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FDA Warns On Fake Tamiflu

 

 

# 4661

 

 

A little caveat emptor this morning with this story from the FDA on their testing of `generic tamiflu’ that was sold online without requiring a prescription.

Not only did it not contain any oseltamivir – it was laced with cloxacillin, a penicillin like antibiotic that could cause serious (and potentially fatal) anaphylactic reactions in some recipients.

 

 

FDA Sounds Alarm on Phony Tamiflu

 

The FDA is warning consumers that a phony version of an antiviral drug being sold on the Internet could spark a harmful reaction in some people.

 

Investigators found the drug was being sold as “generic Tamiflu,” even though FDA has not approved a generic version of Tamiflu, which is used in treatment of the flu.

 

The unapproved medication contains cloxacillin, an ingredient in the same class as penicillin. FDA warned that the unlabeled product could result in a life-threatening reaction in persons who are allergic to penicillin.

 

FDA investigators bought the fake Tamiflu without a prescription on the Internet, even though a prescription is required to buy Tamiflu in legitimate pharmacies. Later, two foil-backed blister packages with a total of 30 yellow and tan capsules arrived in an envelope postmarked India. The product label claimed to be 75 mg. capsules of oseltamivir phosphate, but testing proved otherwise.

 

Laboratory tests conducted by FDA showed the product did not contain oseltamivir, the active ingredient in Tamiflu. Instead, the fraudulent medication contained cloxacillin.

 

(Continue . . . )

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China: Spring Festival - High Risk Individuals Should Not Travel Home

 

 

# 4251

 

 

Returning home in Asia during the time of the lunar New Year is practically a cultural imperative, particularly in countries like China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Korea.  

 

Chunyun – or China’s Spring Festival Travel Season - is often described as the largest yearly human migration on the planet.

 

While the actual date varies each year (it is based on the Lunar Calendar), Chinese New Year falls between late January and mid-February.

 

This year, the Chinese Lunar New year falls on February 14th, and with it comes a cultural ethic for millions who have moved to the big cities or away to school to return home to visit with their families.

 

These travelers will spend a few days in their home village or town, and then travel back to the city where they work or live.

 

With an influenza pandemic ongoing, this is an opportunity for the virus to hitch a ride to remote areas of China and other parts of Asia that have been relatively untouched by the illness. 

 

And that has authorities in Beijing worried.

 

Today, China’s state run media has announced the following advice from the Chinese government regarding travel during this pandemic.

 

China advises less travel ahead of Spring Festival amid flu fear

 

www.chinaview.cn  2010-01-14 01:03:24
 

    BEIJING, Jan. 13 (Xinhua) -- China's Ministry of Health on Wednesday advised children, old people and other vulnerable groups to stay put for the upcoming Spring Festival in a bid to prevent an A/H1N1 outbreak.

 

Usually a large number of Chinese people, mostly migrant workers and students, travel back home for family reunions in time of the Lunar New Year, which falls on Feb. 14, resulting in a highpeak of mass transportation.

 

Pregnant women, children, the elderly, obese people and those with chronic diseases were advised not to frequent crowded places and see doctors as soon as possible if experiencing respiratory symptoms, the ministry said on its official website.

 

The Chinese mainland reported 51 deaths from the A/H1N1 influenza in the week from Jan. 4 to Jan. 10, with 2,173 new cases confirmed.

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