Disaster’s Hidden Toll

 

  +

Credit NHK News – Fukushima evacuation zone March 2011

 

# 6846

 

With our short attention span, and the news media’s proclivity for moving on to the next big disaster or story, we often don’t closely follow the struggle to rebuild disaster stricken communities, which can take months or even years.

 

And for some caught in harm’s way, whose homes and businesses were destroyed - and loved ones lost - there is no going back to the way things used to be.

 

Not surprisingly, that can produce significant mental and physical health challenges for those affected.

 

Today we’ve a report out of Japan showing that the earthquake/tsunami of March 2011 that killed more than 20,000 people in Japan also had a long-term, largely unseen, effect on nursing home patients who were forced to evacuate to temporary facilities.

 

A study shows a 2.4 fold increase in deaths during the 8 months following the earthquake.  Deaths not caused by the quake, tsunami, or radiation release itself – but likely brought on by the stress of having to live in make-shift emergency shelters.

 

A unusually large number of these excess deaths were due to pneumonia or bronchitis, which many attribute to insufficient emergency shelters provided for the elderly and frail.

This report from the Ashasi Simbum.

 

Death rates spike among elderly evacuees from Fukushima

January 11, 2013

By YURI OIWA/ Staff Writer

Former residents of nursing homes near the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant died at a higher rate than usual in 2011, a study has shown, likely because of the stress of evacuation and having to live in temporary accommodations such as draughty school gyms.

 

Researchers from the Fukushima Medical University studied reports submitted to the Fukushima prefectural government by 34 institutions for the elderly and found that the death rate over eight months in 2011 was 2.4 times that of the same period in 2010.

(Continue . . . )

 

A similar result was found in this study of nursing home evacuations from the University of South Florida.

 

The Effects of Evacuation on Nursing Home Residents With Dementia

Lisa M. Brown, PhD, David M. Dosa, MD, MPH, Kali Thomas, MA, Kathryn Hyer, PhD, MPP, Zhanlian Feng, PhD, Vincent Mor, PhD

Background: In response to the hurricane-related deaths of nursing home residents, there has been a steady increase in the number of facilities that evacuate under storm threat. This study examined the effects of evacuation during Hurricane Gustav on residents who were cognitively impaired.

 

Conclusions: The findings of this research reveal the deleterious effects of evacuation on residents with severe dementia. Interventions need to be developed and tested to determine the best methods for protecting this at risk population when there are no other options than to evacuate the facility.

 

 

We’ve looked at other post-disaster health impacts in the past, such as in Post Disaster Stress & Suicide Rates. One disaster discussed was a 1999 7.3 earthquake that struck in Chi-Chi, Nantou county in central Taiwan killing more than 2,300 people.

 

A study that subsequently appeared in the Taiwan Journal of Medicine (Disease-specific Mortality Associated with Earthquake in Taiwan Hsien-Wen Kuo, Shu-Jen Wu, Ming-Chu Chiu) found `a considerable increase in the number of suicides after the earthquake’.

 

PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder) can often occur in the wake of a disaster or traumatic experience. Symptoms may include anxiety, depression, suicide and PTSD may even lead to drug and alcohol-related disorders.

 

Victims of personal violence, rescue and medical workers, victims of disasters, terrorism, physical or psychological trauma, and/or a combat zone are all at risk of suffering some level of PTSD.

 

In Psychological First Aid: The WHO Guide For Field Workers we looked at the need for, and a guide for providing psychological first aid (PFA) in a post-disaster environment.

 

The CDC also provides a website which contains a number of resources devoted to coping with disasters.

 

Coping With a Disaster or Traumatic Event

Trauma and Disaster Mental Health Resources

The effects of a disaster, terrorist attack, or other public health emergency can be long-lasting, and the resulting trauma can reverberate even with those not directly affected by the disaster. This page provides general strategies for promoting mental health and resilience. These strategies were developed by various organizations based on experiences in prior disasters.

 

As does the National Center For PTSD - including videos - on how to provide Psychological First Aid.

A reminder that a disaster’s impact can linger long after the story has fallen off the front pages, and that indirect casualties can follow months after the initial event.

»» Read More

Do1Thing: A 12 Step Preparedness Program

Major Disasters In the United States - Credit FEMA

 

 

# 6827

 

While government agencies like FEMA and Ready.gov  continually urge people to become better prepared to deal with emergencies and disasters, many people end up doing little (or nothing) because the task seems so daunting.

 

To go from unprepared to prepared doesn’t happen overnight.  It requires thought, effort, some modest expenditures and time.

 

Each September FEMA & Ready.gov promote National Preparedness Month – and I devote a good deal of this blog to that effort – but the best time to get started in preparedness is now.

 

And to help you along in this task is the web-based Do1Thing project, which was recently featured in the CDC’s Public Health Matters Blog.   This is a 12-step program that asks you to just do 1 thing each month to become better prepared.

 

Register on the site (which is free) and you’ll receive monthly email reminders and encouragement, to help you meet the goal of becoming better prepared over the next year.

 

A few excerpts from the CDC blog, then I’ll return with more.

 

Do 1 Thing in 2013

Categories: General, Natural Disasters, Preparedness, Response

 

January 1st, 2013 8:00 am ET  -  Blog Administrator

New Year’s resolutions have been on our mind at CDC’s Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response.  Through the halls you will hear talk of losing weight, reading more, spending less money… the list goes on and on.  But let’s be honest, resolutions can be hard to keep.  This year, make a resolution you can keep.  Commit to improving your preparedness skills and resources for emergency situations.

 

The idea of preparing for an emergency may seem like a daunting task.  Some shrug and assume that emergency responders will be there to save the day.  The truth is, when disaster strikes, emergency responders are slammed with calls for help.  It may be left up to you.  Be ready and prepared to help yourself, your family, and your neighbors.

 

Start small.  Focus on one topic area each month for the year.  The Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response has recognized the Do 1 Thing project as a community effort that reflects and embodies the Whole Community approach to emergency management.  Do 1 Thing, a web-based preparedness program, encourages participants to become better prepared by tackling one topic each month.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

Do1Thing also has a Youtube channel where you’ll find a dozen audio files (each approx 4 minutes) giving the basics for each month of preparedness, along with a dozen 30 second PSA videos. 

 

You can visit it HERE.

 

The first step for January is to MAKE A PLAN.  In February you’ll store enough water for family and pets to last 72 hours, and in March you’ll make decisions about sheltering in place or (if necessary) evacuating to another location. 

 

By following these 12 monthly steps, by the end of the year, you and your family should be well prepared to deal with most emergencies and disasters.

 

While major disasters don’t happen every day, the United States experiences one – on average – every five to seven days.  In 2011 there were a record 99 major disaster declarations.

 

It doesn’t take a `doomsday’ type event to ruin your whole day.  Tornadoes, floods, winter storms, power outages, earthquakes, wildfires, and hurricanes are all too common occurrences.  

When things go bad in a hurry, the advantage goes to those who are best prepared.

 

Which is why FEMA, Ready.gov, the HHS, CDC, and dozens of other agencies and organizations all encourage citizen preparedness.

 

For more on general preparedness, I would invite you to visit.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

 

And finally, some of my own preparedness articles may be of interest:

 

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

The Gift of Preparedness 2012

»» Read More

Black Swan Events

 

# 6772

 

Black Swan events are game changing incidents that few, if anyone, had predicted. The phrase was coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2004 book Fooled By Randomness, and expanded upon in his 2007 book The Black Swan.

 

Yesterday, the U.S. National Intelligence Council released a report called  "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" that tries to anticipate the global shifts that will likely occur over the next two decades.

 

This 166-page report tries to predict the future, but admits that the course of history is often abruptly and unexpectedly changed by outlier events – black swans – that are simply impossible to predict. 

Several of these `game changers’ have been topics of previous posts in this blog.

 

 

Global Trends 2030's potential Black Swans

1. Severe Pandemic

"No one can predict which pathogen will be the next to start spreading to humans, or when or where such a development will occur," the report says. "Such an outbreak could result in millions of people suffering and dying in every corner of the world in less than six months."

2. Much More Rapid Climate Change

"Dramatic and unforeseen changes already are occurring at a faster rate than expected. Most scientists are not confident of being able to predict such events. Rapid changes in precipitation patterns—such as monsoons in India and the rest of Asia -- could sharply disrupt that region's ability to feed its population."

6. Nuclear War or WMD/ Cyber Attack

"Nuclear powers such as Russia and Pakistan and potential aspirants such as Iran and North Korea see nuclear weapons as compensation for other political and security weaknesses, heightening the risk of their use. The chance of nonstate actors conducting a cyber attack—or using WMD (weapon of mass destruction) —also is increasing."

7. Solar Geomagnetic Storms

"Solar geomagnetic storms could knock out satellites, the electric grid, and many sensitive electronic devices. The recurrence intervals of crippling solar geomagnetic storms, which are less than a century, now pose a substantial threat because of the world's dependence on electricity," the report says.

 

While most people are loathe to think about them, these types of high-impact events are not wild-eyed Hollywood disaster movie fantasies. They are considered valid (albeit, low probability) threats by many of our nation’s planning and response agencies. 

 

Which is why agencies like the HHS, CDC, FEMA, Ready.gov and others work each day to convince citizens of the importance of being prepared for the unexpected, and why I devote a fair amount of this blog to everyday preparedness.

 

 

And it’s not just the United States that looks at and prepares for low-probability-high Impact events. 

 

Last March in UK: Civil Threat Risk Assessment, we looked at a report issued by the UK government that is essentially a short list of disaster scenarios (man-made & natural) that the Cabinet Office believe to be genuine threats.

 

The 2012 list includes:

 

Pandemic influenza – This remains the most significant civil emergency risk. The outbreak of H1N1 influenza in 2009 (‘swine flu’) did not match the severity of the scenario that we plan for and is not necessarily indicative of future pandemic influenzas; the three influenza pandemics of the 20th century (1918–19, 1957–58 and 1968–69) all had differing levels of severity. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic does not change the risk of another pandemic emerging (such as an H5N1 (avian flu)
pandemic) or mean that the severity of any future pandemics will be the same as the 2009 H1N1 outbreak.

 

Also on their list is a repeat of the 1953 severe coastal flooding event that claimed hundreds of lives and caused extreme property damage and a catastrophic terrorist attack.

 

New this year are the addition of Severe effusive (gas-rich) volcanic eruptions abroad and the potential impact from severe space weather.

 

Few are aware of it now, but In 1783 the Craters of Laki in Iceland erupted and over the next 8 months spewed clouds of clouds of deadly hydrofluoric acid & Sulphur Dioxide, killing over half of Iceland’s livestock and roughly 25% of their population.

 

These noxious clouds drifted over Europe, and resulted in widespread crop failures and thousands of deaths from direct exposure to these fumes. There are also anecdotal reports that suggest this eruption had short-term global climate impacts as well.

 

Were that to happen again today, the effects would be absolutely disastrous to Europe, and the rest of the world.

 

Sounding a bit like science-fiction, violent solar flares and earth directed CMEs are also on FEMA’s and the UK’s worry list, and are subjects we’ve discussed before:

 

A Flare For The Dramatic

Solar Storms, CMEs & FEMA

A Carrington Event

 

NASA, while admitting that a serious solar storm could happen practically anytime, also cautions that the next big one could be many decades away. It is a genuine threat, they say, but the timing is impossible to predict.

 

In June of 2011 (see OECD Report: Future Global Shocks), we saw a series of reports come out of the OECD (The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) that warned - as the world becomes more interconnected and interdependent - that `Global Shocks’ to the world economy become more likely.

 

They define a Global Shock as: a rapid onset event with severely disruptive consequences covering at least two continents.

While discussing a wide range of future shock scenarios, the authors concentrated most of their attention on five highly disruptive future shock events.

• A Pandemic
• A Cyber Attack
• A Financial Crisis
• A Geomagnetic Storm
• Social Unrest/Revolution

 

They also make special note of the risks of increased antibiotic resistance, and the need for new classes of antibiotics to be developed. 

 

The common threats running through all of these reports are a Pandemic, a coordinated cyber Attack, and destructive solar storms.

 

But of course, by definition, a `black swan event’ comes as a surprise. The next global shock may not come from this list, it could be something we’ve not considered.

 

 

Until it happened, few people would have seriously concerned themselves that a 9.0 earthquake, and a 100 foot tsunami, could devastate northern Japan, disable four nuclear reactors, and change the view of nuclear energy in many countries around the world.

 

But regardless of the source of the next future global shock, being prepared to deal with it is of paramount importance.

 

While there is much governments can do to prepare, a nation’s resilience in the face of a major crisis –whether it be local or global - truly comes from the bottom up, not from the top down. 

 

Being prepared doesn’t mean going to extremes.  You don’t have to dig a bunker, or set aside 10 years worth of canned goods. Nor should you focus on one particular threat, or scenario.

 

Instead, the smart money is on taking basic preparedness steps against `All Hazards', including those you may not automatically assume are a threat where you live.

 

Everyone should have a well thought out disaster and family communications plan, along with a good first aid kit, a `bug-out bag’, and sufficient emergency supplies to last a bare minimum of 72 hours.

 

Based on the  events in Japan (or after Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, or the earthquake in Haiti) 3 days of supplies many not be enough for a truly worst case scenario.

 

The County of Los Angeles Emergency Survival Guide calls for having 3 to 10 days worth of food and water. Personally, I believe that 2-weeks of supplies isn’t an unreasonable goal, particularly if you live in earthquake or hurricane country.

 

The L.A. guide may be downloaded here (6.5 Mbyte PDF).

 

For more information on preparedness, you may wish to visit:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

And lastly, you may wish to revisit some of my earlier preparedness essays, including:

 

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

 

The Gift of Preparedness 2012

 

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

 

Because, by the time you recognize the onset of a black swan event, it is probably too late to prepare for it.

»» Read More

FEMA: Beware Of Post-Disaster Scam Artists

 

 

# 6728

 

While it isn’t unique to the post-Sandy disaster, scam artists are apparently plying their unsavory trade in parts of New York state, taking advantage of people already devastated by the storm.

 

FEMA, which has been dealing with inaccurate disaster assistance stories for weeks (see FEMA: Quashing Rumors), is now warning of a new `contractor scam’.

 

This from their Hurricane Sandy page.

 

Hurricane Sandy: Rumor Control

Main Content

There is a lot of misinformation circulating on social networks regarding the response and recovery effort for Hurricane Sandy. Rumors spread fast: please tell a friend, share this page and help us provide accurate information about the types of assistance available.

 

Check here often for an on-going list of rumors and their true or false status.

Contractors

There are reports that individuals claiming to be "City Assessment Contractors" assessing houses under the New York Rapid Repairs and Sheltering and Temporary Essential Power (STEP) program are telling residents throughout Staten Island in New York to provide payment for services provided immediately. These "contractors" are claiming that FEMA will reimburse survivors for assessment costs and guarantee additional cash payments of $10,000 to be used for rapid repairs to their homes. This is FALSE. (November 19)

STEP assessments are free of charge. They do not provide money to individuals. STEP is meant to provide temporary measures so storm survivors may shelter-in-place in their homes. Remember, all contractors providing assessments are coordinated through your city/county officials and must provide identification prior to viewing your home. Please contact your local officials for more information about the STEP program.

 

STEP assists State and local government in performing work and services essential to saving lives, protecting public health and safety, and protecting property. In particular, STEP helps restore power, heat and hot water by funding certain emergency measures to residences that could regain power through emergency repairs. STEP can help residents safely remain in their homes pending more permanent repairs.

 

If you live in the five boroughs of New York City, call 311 to access information about the program. If you live in Nassau County, call 1-888-684-4267. Your county or city will decide what elements of the STEP Program are available for your residence. You can contact them for more information.
Anyone who was impacted by Hurricane Sandy is urged to register for assistance through FEMA by calling 1-800-621-FEMA or going to www.disasterassistance.gov or m.fema.gov (on your mobile device).

Calling 1-800-621-FEMA

 

 

Yesterday FEMA also released the following advice for avoiding being ripped off by phony contractors.

 

NEW YORKERS WARNED TO WATCH OUT FOR POST-DISASTER SCAM ARTISTS

Release date:  November 19, 2012

Release Number: NR-037

NEW YORK – As many New Yorkers work to recover from Hurricane Sandy, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) officials are warning of another danger: Phony building contractors and other scam artists often appear in communities struggling to recover from a disaster.

 

“In times of crisis, New Yorkers pull together,” said Federal Coordinating Officer Michael F. Byrne. “However, some people will try to take advantage of vulnerable survivors. We strongly recommend that folks take a few simple steps to make sure they’re dealing with an honest person.”

 

Here are a few of the most common post-disaster fraud practices:

Phony housing inspectors: If home damage is visible from the street, an owner/applicant may be especially vulnerable to the phony housing inspector who claims to represent FEMA or the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA). An applicant should ALWAYS:

• Ask to see the inspector’s identification badge if he or she does not offer to show it. A FEMA or SBA shirt or jacket is not proof of someone’s affiliation with the government. All federal employees and contractors carry official, laminated photo identification.
• Do not give bank account numbers to an inspector claiming to be affiliated with the federal government. FEMA inspectors never require banking information.

It is important to note that FEMA housing inspectors verify damage, but do not hire or endorse specific contractors to fix homes or recommend repairs.  They do not determine your eligibility for assistance.

 

Fraudulent building contractors: Damage visible from the street also can bring out fraudulent contractors who visit an applicant’s home offering to begin work immediately. When hiring a contractor: 

• Use licensed local contractors backed by reliable references, get a written estimate from at least three contractors, including the cost of labor and materials, and read the fine print.
• Demand that contractors carry general liability insurance and workers’ compensation. If he or she is not insured, you may be liable for accidents that occur on your property.

Bogus pleas for post-disaster donations: Unscrupulous solicitors may play on the sympathy for disaster survivors. They know that many people want to help others in need. Disaster aid solicitations may arrive by phone, email, letter or face-to-face visits.  Verify legitimate solicitation:

• Ask for the charity’s exact name, street address, phone number, and web address, then phone the charity directly and confirm that the person asking for funds is an employee or volunteer.
• Don’t pay with cash — instead, pay by check made out to the charity in case funds must be stopped later.•Request a receipt with the charity’s name, street address, phone number and web address (if applicable). Legitimate nonprofit agencies routinely provide receipts for tax purposes.

Fake offers of state or federal aid: Beware if anyone claiming to be from FEMA or the state visits, calls or emails asking for an applicant’s Social Security number, bank account number or other sensitive information. Beware — that information may be sold to identity thieves or used to defraud. A twist on this scam is the phone or in-person solicitor who promises to speed up the insurance, disaster assistance or building-permit process. Then there are scam artists who promise a disaster grant and ask for large cash deposits or advance payments in full. Here’s what to do:

• Know that federal and state workers do not solicit or accept money. FEMA and SBA staff never charge applicants for disaster assistance, inspections or help in filling out applications. If in doubt, do not give out information, and report people claiming to be government workers to local police.
• Provide your Social Security number and banking information only when registering for FEMA assistance, either by calling 1-800-621-FEMA (3362), TTY 1-800-462-7585, or going online at www.disasterassistance.gov or via a web-enabled phone at m.fema.gov. If you use 711-Relay or Video Relay Services, call 1-800-621-3362.

If you suspect someone is perpetrating fraud, call the FEMA Disaster Fraud Hotline at 1-866-720-5721. Complaints may also be made to local law enforcement agencies and to the New York State Attorney General’s office in New York at 212-416-8300 or go to their web site at: www.ag.ny.gov.

Disaster survivors who have any questions can call FEMA’s toll-free helpline at 1-800-621-3362.
For more information on New York’s disaster recovery, click www.fema.gov/disaster/40805.

More information about common of forms fraud watch our video: FEMA Media Library: Avoiding Frauds And Scams.  You can follow FEMA on Facebook at www.facebook.com/FEMA  . Also visit our blog at www.fema.gov/blog.

 

»» Read More

NWS: Possible Coastal Storm Mid-Week

 

Source CDC

 

 

# 6694

 

As I mentioned on Thursday (see A Worrisome Mid-Week Forecast), computer models are increasingly indicating a coastal storm/Nor’easter for the Mid-Atlantic & New England states later this week.

 

Not only will this increase the misery factor for residents and rescue workers dealing with the aftermath of Sandy, for those without power or heat temperatures and wind chills may drop dangerously low.

 

This is the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook from the New York NWS, issued early this morning:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S.

THOSE WITHOUT POWER SHOULD PLAN FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S.

THOSE WITHOUT POWER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...RAIN/WINTRY PRECIPITATION...COASTAL FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION TO THE TRI-STATE AREA.

STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

 

 

The 7 day forecast for Newark, NJ gives a pretty good idea of the expected progression of the weather.

 

The concern here isn’t just for the cold, for every year we get tragic reports of people who either started a house fire, or succumbed to Carbon Monoxide poisoning, while trying to heat their homes during a power outage.

 

The sources of CO are numerous; faulty furnaces, snow blocked car exhaust pipes, attempts to use generators inside the house or garage . . . and the use of CO producing emergency heat sources all contribute to the winter body count.

 

The CDC’s MMWR released a report in 2005 called Unintentional Non--Fire-Related Carbon Monoxide Exposures --- United States, 2001—2003 that stated:

 

During 2001--2003, an estimated 15,200 persons with confirmed or possible non--fire-related CO exposure were treated annually in hospital EDs. In addition, during 2001--2002, an average of 480 persons died annually from non--fire-related CO poisoning. Although males and females were equally likely to visit an ED for CO exposure, males were 2.3 times more likely to die from CO poisoning. Most (64%) of the nonfatal CO exposures occurred in homes. Efforts are needed to educate the public about preventing CO exposure.

 

The CDC maintains a webpage on Carbon Monoxide, which you can access here, and has this short video on what they call the `quiet killer’.

 

 

»» Read More

Caveat Twitter

 

 

 

# 6693

 

 

As if the job facing local, state, and Federal emergency officials dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane/Hybrid Sandy were not enough of a challenge, FEMA is reporting that some people are spreading misinformation on social media platforms like Twitter, and Facebook.

 

This from last night’s FEMA BLOG.

 

Rumor Control

There is a lot of misinformation circulating on social networks. Check here for an on-going list of rumors and their true or false status.

• November 3: There have been recent blog posts and social media traffic expressing that FEMA is out of bottled water.  This is FALSE.  We are providing water to our state partners for distribution.
  For New York locations and times of food and water distribution centers and daytime warming centers, visit www.nyc.gov.
• November 3: There have been calls and posts from citizens related to the failure of the Old Bridge Township water system in Old Bridge, New Jersey. This is FALSE. The Old Bridge Municipal Utilities Authority (OBMUA) has reported that the water system is stable and safe and that there are no usage restrictions currently in place.
• November 3: Food stamps being given out to residents of New York and New Jersey as a part of FEMA assistance. This is FALSE. For information on the types of assistance available to those impacted by Sandy, call 1-800-621-FEMA.
• November 2: There is a spike of traffic related to FEMA hiring cleanup crews in both New York and New Jersey. This is FALSE. For information on how you can volunteer in these communities visit Serve.gov/sandy

 

The fault here doesn’t lie with the medium, but with the messenger. Why anyone would deliberately mislead people already suffering from a disaster is beyond my understanding, but some extremely small number of people out there do.

 

Most experts agree that Twitter, Facebook, and other social media platforms have provided excellent service during this, and other, crises.

 

As I wrote, more than three years ago in It Depends who you follow, being selective about who you follow on twitter – or `friend’ on Facebook – is your best defense against inane, annoying, or misleading messages.

 

During a crisis, like last week’s storm, many of us opened up our feeds using  hashtags like #SANDY or #Frankenstorm to try to gather as much information as we could from multiple sources. 

 

While useful, it is important to remember that this temporarily invites strangers into our feed, removing the filter of `trusted friends’ we normally maintain in our social media lives. 

 

All of which means that Caveat Lector – or in this case - Caveat Twitter, must be our guide. 

 

I’m a huge fan of twitter, and I used it every day.

 

But to avoid compounding a felony, I always think twice before re-tweeting a message from someone I don’t know well enough to trust. 

»» Read More

Unreasonable Expectations

  

Breezy Point and Rockaway, NY - Credit FEMA

 

# 6692

 

A couple of headlines from the local/regional section of the New York Times tell the tale.

 

Hardship Strains Emotions in New York

By JAMES BARRON and KEN BELSON

The region approached a breaking point on Friday as the collective spirit that prevailed in the first few days after Hurricane Sandy gave way to angry complaints of neglect and unequal treatment.

Anger Grows at Response by Red Cross

By DAVID M. HALBFINGER

The American Red Cross struggled on Friday to reassure beleaguered New York City residents that its disaster-relief efforts were at last getting up to speed.

 

 

These are difficult times for many victims of Sandy, and millions are cold, hungry, and miserable. With a winter storm forecast for the middle of next week and millions still without power, patience is understandably in short supply.  

 

Despite years of warnings, I’m sure many never really believed this could happen in New York City.

 

But it can, and it will again.  If not in New York, in another major American city. it’s really only a matter of time.

 

For years the American Red Cross, FEMA, Ready.gov, and just about everyone else in emergency services has urged that individuals and families be prepared to deal for at least 72 hours after a major disaster. 

 

The operative words being, `at least’.  And with good reason. 

 

The logistics of delivering emergency assistance to millions of people - while hampered by bad weather, crippled communications, damaged infrastructure, and stressed supply chains - all within the first three days of a major disaster, are daunting, and in some cases impossible.

 

With hurricanes and storms, agencies usually know several days in advance and are able to  pre-position equipment, personnel, and supplies.

 

Some disasters, like earthquakes, come without warning. And so response times may be even longer.

 

Federal officials know that it would be better if every individual and family had 5 days - or even a week’s worth - of food & water and other essentials in their home.  

 

But so few follow the advice to prepare for 72 hours, asking for more is thought to be unlikely to do much good.

 

Since I’m not on the ground in New York or New Jersey, I can’t speak to the criticisms being lodged against relief workers there.  Some of these complaints may be valid.

 

I suspect some stem from the public’s unreasonable expectations of what can actually be done in the hours and days immediately following a disaster.

 

Having worked in emergency services, I’m confident that the vast majority of responders are doing the best they can, under extraordinarily stressful circumstances, with the resources they have available.

 

Many of these relief worker’s homes and families have been impacted by this storm, and yet they are devoting their time and energy to helping others. 

 

It’s their job, I’m sure some will argue.  And that’s true.  But many of these people are volunteers.

 

The lesson here is that large scale disasters are messy, complicated affairs. The government possesses no magic wand that can erase the damage and eliminate the suffering overnight.

 

To expect that to happen, and to expect it will all to go flawlessly in a chaotic environment, is more than just unreasonable. It’s a fantasy.  Some problems can’t be fixed immediately, no matter how much money, and how many resources, you throw at it.

 

 
Knowing that, and knowing – despite the best efforts of the combined agencies responding – that it may be 3, 5, or even 7 days before emergency aid can get fully deployed, the best option is to be ready to deal with the first week after a disaster.

 

Last year in When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough, I highlighted  a colorful, easy-to-follow, 100 page `survival guide’ released by Los Angeles County, that covers everything from earthquake and tsunami preparedness, to getting ready for a pandemic.

 

The guide may be downloaded here (6.5 Mbyte PDF).

While designed specifically for the nearly 10 million residents of Los Angeles County, this guide would be a valuable asset for anyone interested in preparing for a variety of hazards.

 

And in Los Angeles, the advice is to have emergency supplies (food, water, etc) to last up to 10 days. In my humble opinion, 2-weeks in an earthquake zone isn’t overkill.

 

And I can’t overstress the importance of having, and being, a Disaster Buddy.

 

True, help will begin to arrive within 48 to 72 hours of most disasters, but as we saw with Hurricane Katrina, and now Sandy, relief efforts can take time. Having extra supplies means you are in a better position to offer help to a friend, a neighbor, a relative, or your community.

 

And in the wake of a major disaster, you’ll find there are better things to be doing with your time than queuing up for hours waiting for water and food distributions.

 

While the standard advice to prepare for 3 days is a good start, if you are capable of doing more (and not everyone is), you really should.

 

During a crisis, relief agencies will have their hands full trying to help those who were unable to prepare, or who lost their preps due to the disaster.

 

By being better prepared, you take some of the burden off relief agencies, which will allow them to concentrate their efforts on helping those less able to help themselves.

 

And by being prepared, you are in a better position to help others.

 

And that’s a win-win situation.

 

For you, your family, and your community.

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A Worrisome Mid-Week Forecast

Source NOAA HPC

# 6689

 

The very last thing that the residents of New England and the Mid-Atlantic states need right now is another storm to deal with, but early indications from NOAA’s HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) suggest a Nor'easter could be in store by the middle of next week.

 

The two forecast models above show the model runs for November 7th and November 8th. 

 

They show a low pressure area – potentially a winter storm – moving up the eastern seaboard during that time frame.

 

While six days out is a long way off, and the forecast could certainly change, any deterioration in the weather will make the recovery efforts in New York, New Jersey, and surrounding areas that much more difficult.

 

 

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

947 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2012

VALID 12Z MON NOV 05 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 08 2012

...NOR'EASTER POSSIBLE FOR MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES BY ELECTION DAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY...

<SNIP>

GUIDANCE STILL HAVE SOME TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES BUT COMMONLY AGREE THAT DEEPER LOW DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR MON-THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND UP OFF THE EAST COAST.
THIS WOULD BRING BEST ORGANIZED RAINS FROM THE ERN MID-ATLANTIC TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

 

A TRACK IN THIS VEIN OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER SNOWS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE LOW WRAPS INLAND.  INCREASING WINDS ALONG COASTAL NEW ENGLAND (AND POSSIBLY THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES IF A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK VERIFIES) TUESDAY ONWARD MAY LEAD TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.

 

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN HURRICANE SANDY AND PRODUCE IMPACTS MUCH LESS EXTREME AND MAINLY AWAY FROM THE REGION MOST
STRONGLY IMPACTED BY SANDY.

Obviously we’ll be watching these developments with keen interest, and the fervent hope that this storm fails to materialize.

»» Read More

NPM12: Because We Don’t Know What Tomorrow Will Bring

 

Note: Today marks  the final day of National Preparedness Month, but that in no way signals the end of your need to prepare. Preparedness is a year-round job. 

 

 

Over the past 30 days I’ve posted more than a dozen preparedness blogs, so today I thought I’d explain how I became a `prepper’.

 

Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NPM or #NPM12 hash tag.

 

 

# 6597

 

 

I confess that I didn’t really start to think seriously about preparedness until 1984, when I bought my first sailboat and began to outfit it for extended coastal cruising.

 

I knew there would be times when my wife and I would be absolutely on our own – often miles from shore or in some remote region of the Ten Thousands Islands - well beyond the puny range of our VHF radio.

 

Suddenly, I was faced with playing the `What if?’ game.

 

• What if one of us got hurt?
• What if we were dismasted or driven hard aground?
• What if the outboard motor or radio died?
• What if we sank!

 

What if . . . what if . . . what if . . .  the possibilities for disaster were endless and daunting, and then there were the less emergent considerations. 

 

How much food and water could we carry?  How much fuel?   How would we generate electricity for anchor, navigation, and interior lights . . . and for the radio?

 

As the only thing smaller than our 23-foot Grampian sailboat was the budget we had for outfitting her, it took nearly a year to get her ready for the cruise. Twelve months, and $7,500 dollars later (and that included the price of the 12 year old boat!), we headed south.

 

Cheryl at the Helm of Halcyon

 

I’m happy to report that while we did see our share of storms, gear failures, minor injuries, and accidental groundings we managed to enjoy the better part of a year cruising without any major mishaps.

 

But it wouldn’t have had a happy ending without proper planning.

 

During the mid-1990’s I moved from the water to the land, and tried my hand at taming 24 acres of Missouri backwoods. Once again, living miles from the nearest town and occasionally cut off for a week or more by snow and ice storms, made preparedness and self-sufficiency paramount.

 

The view from our 4000sf garden

 

I confess - I’m not really much of a backwoodsman - and while I learned many skills during that time, I finally was able to return to Florida in 2005 (the statute of limitations had expired).

 

So you see, I come by my preparedness streak honestly.

 

Even though I no longer live aboard a boat, or in the backwoods, I still believe in being prepared. 

 

Not for the end of the world - as seems to be the popular perception of preppers - but for the very real and all-to-common disasters and emergencies that happen all the time.

 

Thirty days ago, on the first day of National Preparedness Month, I highlighted a very effective graphic from  Ready.gov that shows the `day before disaster’ for all 50 states.

 

The date when it was still not too late to prepare.

Click through to the interactive map, to see each state’s date with destiny.

 

If you click on California, for example, you’ll get:

 

You get the idea. 

 

The takeaway point is, you never know whether today is the day before your disaster . . .

 

The thing that keeps emergency planners up at night is the knowledge that during a disaster, far too many people will be unprepared to fend for themselves until emergency help can arrive.

 

Which is why the Federal government wants all of us to be prepared for emergencies, as they know that during a `normal’ disaster (of which dozens occur every year) citizens may be on their own for up to 72 hours. 

 

In an extreme disaster (like we saw with Katrina in 2005), some people may end up having to fend for themselves for a week or longer.

 

 

Based on the  events in Japan (or after Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, or the earthquake in Haiti) 3 days of supplies many not be enough for a truly worst case scenario.

 

The County of Los Angeles Emergency Survival Guide calls for having 3 to 10 days worth of food and water.

 

Personally, I believe that 2-weeks of supplies isn’t an unreasonable goal, particularly if you live in earthquake or hurricane country.

 

The L.A. guide may be downloaded here (6.5 Mbyte PDF).

 

 

The bottom line is everyone should have a disaster plan. Everyone should have a good first aid kit, a `bug-out bag’, and sufficient emergency supplies to last a bare minimum of 72 hours.

 

For more on  disaster preparedness, I would invite you to visit:

 

NPM12: Disaster Buddies

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

NPM12: The Gift Of Preparedness

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

»» Read More

Japan’s Earthquake: Learning from Megadisasters

 

 

# 6588

 

 

We are a little more than 18 months since the Great Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011 - and while much progress has been made - much work still remains ahead to safely secure the damaged nuclear reactors, and to rebuild shattered lives and communities.

 

The events of March 11th, 2011 were far more complex and devastating than any emergency plan had previously considered;  A 9.0 earthquake spawning a massive tsunami, that would not only demolish coastal towns killing thousands, but would heavily damage nuclear power facilities as well.

 

While the term megadisaster is often bandied about, in this instance, it is an appropriate description. 

 

Via Reliefweb, we’ve the first phase of a joint project by the GFDRR, the Government of Japan, and the World Bank that should be of particular interest to emergency management officials and planners around the world:

 

The Great East Japan Earthquake: Learning from Megadisasters

Report

Download PDF (661.78 KB) Knowledge Notes Executive Summary

Download PDF (374.64 KB) Brochure

<EXCERPT>

Learning from Megadisasters, a knowledge-sharing project sponsored by the Government of Japan and the World Bank, is collecting and analyzing information, data, and evaluations performed by academic and research institutions, nongovernmental organizations, government agencies, and the private sector—all with the objective of sharing Japan’s knowledge on disaster risk management (DRM) and postdisaster reconstruction with countries vulnerable to disasters.  The World Bank and the Japanese government hope that these findings will encourage countries to mainstream DRM in their development policies and planning.

(Continue . . . )

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NPM12: Surviving Disaster – Texas Style

 

 

# 6532

 

September is National Preparedness Month, and along with thousands of others across the country, AFD blog is part of this year’s NPM coalition. All this month, in addition to my regular infectious disease blogging, I’ll be running preparedness articles as well. 

 

Some will be new, like today’s entry, and some will be reposts (often updated) of earlier preparedness essays.

 

Today, from Texasprepares.org (part of the Texas Department of State Health Services) we’ve a series of preparedness videos (available in both English and En Español) that highlight how Texans – who are hardly strangers to natural disasters – prepare for and cope with emergencies.

 

The 7 videos are:

 

Introduction from Dr. David Lakey, Commissioner – 1:20

Surviving Hurricanes: Grab it and Go – 9:50

A Community Rebuilds: Recovering from Wildfires – 9:46

Back to Business: Planning for Disasters – 7:35

Ready for Anything: Preparing for the Next Flood – 8:02

Winds of Destruction: A County's Lessons – 8:45

Facing Disasters: A Plan for Work and Home – 8:17

 

You can click the image below to watch the videos, or follow the link below it to the download page, where you can access, and download, all of their videos.

 

 

Surviving Disaster: How Texans Prepare - Download and Accessible Videos

 

Beyond the videos, you’ll find plenty of emergency preparedness resources on the Texasprepares.org page, including:

 

 

You needn’t be one of the 25 million residents of Texas to find these videos, and resources useful. But you can also find emergency preparedness resources at the FEMA and Ready.gov websites.

 

Regardless of where you go, today would be an excellent day to to take a hard look at your family’s emergency plans, and begin taking steps to improve them.

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East Coast Tsunami Threats

# 6448

 

East Coast tsunamis, while admittedly rare – do occur - and history has shown that they can be extremely destructive.  Last March in Tsunami Awareness Week: March 20th – 26th I wrote about a list of known or suspected Atlantic and East Coast Tsunamis which included:

 

• November 1, 1755 - Lisbon, Portugal
• October 11, 1918 - Puerto Rico
• November 18, 1929 - Newfoundland
• August 4, 1946 - Dominican Republic
• August 18, 1946 - Dominican Republic
• November 14, 1840 - Great Swell on the Delaware River
• November 17, 1872 - Maine
• January 9, 1926 - Maine
• May 19, 1964 - Northeast USA

  POSSIBLE TSUNAMI

• June 9, 1913 - Longport, NJ
• August 6, 1923 - Rockaway Park, Queens, NY. An article on triplicate waves."
• August 8, 1924 - Coney Island, NY. Contains a discussion, “An Observed Tsunami Building In Coastal Waters?"
• August 19, 1931 - Atlantic City, NJ
• September 21, 1938 - Hurricane, NJ coast.
• July 3-4, 1992 - Daytona Beach, FL

 

 

While little remembered today, in November of 1929 a destructive North Atlantic tsunami came ashore after a 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck offshore from Newfoundland.  Three hours later a 3 to 4 meter tsunami washed across many coastal fishing villages on the Burin Peninsula, killing 28 people and leaving as many as 10,000 homeless.

 

In the spring of 2011 we took  A Look At Europe’s Seismic Risks, which gave details on the mother-of-all Altantic basin tsunamis, which was generated by the Lisbon Earthquake  of 1755 (Est. 8.5 magnitude).

 

Tremendous tsunamis (20+ meters) were reported in Northern Africa, Spain and Portugal, and smaller waves washed ashore in the Caribbean and the Atlantic Coast of the New World many hours later. 

 

Tsunami Travel Times from the 1755 Quake – Credit Wikipedia

 

Although accurate numbers are impossible to come by, in Lisbon alone the death toll is estimated at between 10,000 and 100,000.  Most historians place the number at the high end of that range.

 

While far less common that their Pacific counterparts, east coast tsunamis - by reason of geography, population density, and a general lack of public awareness - have the potential to be extremely dangerous.

 

Courtesy of a tweet from FEMA Director Craig Fugate yesterday, I found this fascinating slideshow training presentation on the East Coast Tsunami Threat that expands considerably on my earlier blog post.

 

One of the most remarkable slides in this 29 minute presentation shows that while they happen less often than Pacific tsunamis, historically the east coast death toll is almost as great as those from the west coast.

 

 

Depending upon the type of precipitating event (seismic activty, landslide, asteroid/meteor impact, etc) and the location, tsunami travel and warning times around the Atlantic will vary from minutes to many hours.

 

 

 

You can access current Tsunami warnings and arrival times at the  Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

 

As far as what to do before a tsunami threatens, READY.GOV has a Tsunami Awareness Page with helpful hints.

 

While it may seem unlikely that a tsunami will affect you or your region - this is just one of many potential hazards that may threaten you and your community - and they all require similar preparedness steps.

 

Knowing your local threats, whether they be tsunamis, forest fires, floods, earthquakes or hurricanes  . . . and then becoming prepared to deal with them, will provide you and your family the best safety insurance available.

 

To become better prepared, visit the Ready.gov site today.

Credit Ready.gov

 

To learn how to prepare as an individual, family, business owner, or community I would invite you to visit the following sites and use THIS LINK to access some of my preparedness blogs.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

»» Read More