Showing posts with label Public Health. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Public Health. Show all posts

Ready or Not? TFAH Report 2012

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Download Link

 

 

# 6795

 

For the tenth year in a row, the Trust for America’s Health (TFAH), has produced a comprehensive report on the the level of preparedness for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

 

You can find, and compare progress, from my coverage of earlier editions of this report:

 

TFAH: 2011 Ready or Not Report
TFAH Ready Or Not Report: 2010
TFAH: Ready Or Not 2009


From today’s Press Release:

 

Ready or Not?

Protecting the Public from Diseases, Disasters, and Bioterrorism

December 2012

In the 10th annual Ready or Not? Protecting the Public from Diseases, Disasters, and Bioterrorism report, 35 states and Washington, D.C. scored a six or lower on 10 key indicators of public health preparedness.

The report found that while there has been significant progress toward improving public health preparedness over the past 10 years, particularly in core capabilities, there continue to be persistent gaps in the country's ability to respond to health emergencies, ranging from bioterrorist threats to serious disease outbreaks to extreme weather events.

In the report, Kansas and Montana scored lowest - three out of 10 - and Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Vermont and Wisconsin scored highest - eight out of 10.

"In the past decade, there have been a series of significant health emergencies, including extreme weather events, a flu pandemic and foodborne outbreaks," said Jeffrey Levi, PhD, executive director of TFAH. "But, for some reason, as a country, we haven't learned that we need to bolster and maintain a consistent level of health emergency preparedness. Investments made after September 11th, the anthrax attacks and Hurricane Katrina led to dramatic improvements, but now budget cuts and complacency are the biggest threats we face."

(Continue . . . )

 

You can download the entire 76-page report here.  Each state is ranked based on ten preparedness criteria. A rating of 10 is the highest, although no state exceeded an 8. 

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The report, which is worth reading in its entirety, contains these key findings:

 

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You’ll find an interactive map, with links to each individual state’s report at :

 

http://healthyamericans.org/report/101/

»» Read More

The Return Of Naegleria fowleri

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L & R: Trophozoites of N. fowleri in brain tissue, stained with H&E. Center: Ameboflagellate trophozoite of N. fowleri. Credit: DPDx

 


# 6442

 

While it is exceedingly rare, each summer we hear of one or two fatal cases of PAM (Primary Amoebic Meningoencephalitis) here in the United States caused by an infection usually acquired while swimming in warm lakes and streams.

 

Tragically, an 8-year old boy from South Carolina has become the latest victim (see Amoeba kills Sumter youth –The State).

 

Blake Driggers reportedly fell ill a week after swimming in Lake Marion and was rushed to the hospital by his family.

 

Roughly a week later he died. With no effective treatment, survival with this infection is very rare. 

 

Last year, in Sometimes It’s Zebras I wrote about this usually fatal form of meningitis caused by the Naegleria fowleri parasite.

 

N. flowleri is an amoeba, which can often be found in the silt at the bottom of warm water lakes and streams. If absorbed through the nostrils - it can make a beeline towards the brain.

 

Although usually only a danger to swimmers, last year we saw a new wrinkle when 2 people in Louisiana became infected through the introduction of tap water into their sinuses using a neti pot.

 

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Photo Credit – Wikipedia Commons


These incidents caused the Louisiana Health Department to recommend that people `use distilled, sterile or previously boiled water to make up the irrigation solution’ (see Neti Pots & Naegleria Fowleri).

 

While it made a lot of headlines, this was not the first time that nasal irrigation has been linked to PAM. Several years ago N. fowleri contaminated tap water in Karachi, Pakistan may have caused 13 cases over 18 months.

 

According to the CDC’s FAQ on Naegleria, we average 2 to 4 infections each year in the United States with this parasite.  They list the common sources of the amoeba as:

Where is Naegleria fowleri found?

Naegleria fowleri is found around the world. In the United States, the majority of infections have been caused by Naegleria fowleri from freshwater located in southern-tier states (2). The ameba can be found in:

  • Bodies of warm freshwater, such as lakes and rivers
  • Geothermal (naturally hot) water, such as hot springs
  • Warm water discharge from industrial plants
  • Geothermal (naturally hot) drinking water sources
  • Soil
  • Swimming pools that are poorly maintained, minimally-chlorinated, and/or un-chlorinated
  • Water heaters with temperatures less than 47°C (3, 4)

Naegleria fowleri is not found in salt water, like the ocean.

 

Since millions of people swim in waters where this amoeba naturally occur (or are otherwise exposed) and only a small handful of infections result, the odds of acquiring this infection are extraordinarily low.

 

But the Florida Department of Health has some common sense safety advice on how to avoid this parasite.

 

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Photo Credit – Florida DOH

For more information on the Naegleria parasite, you can visit the CDC’s Naegleria webpage.

 

UPDATE:

While I was writing this blog, Ronan Kelly and Alert over at FluTrackers were posting on a recent spate of deaths due to Naegleria – once again in Karachi, Pakistan.

 

The number of deaths being reported varies depending on the source, but the media is reporting between 3 and 8 fatalities over the past couple of weeks. 

 

You can follow the media reports in this thread.

»» Read More

Updating Public Health Practices (PHP)

 

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# 6381

 

 

Every few months I try to highlight the Public Health Practices project (formerly Promising Practices), a freely accessible repository of public health tools and strategies, sponsored by CIDRAP at the University of Minnesota, in partnership with the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO).

 

 

I’ve been remiss in not mentioning them since late last year, especially since they are currently seeking feedback from visitors on how they are doing.

 

After you’ve explored their site, there is a short survey they would appreciate your answering.

 

 

Over the past year Public Health Practices has broadened its original scope to include more than just pandemic response. You’ll find tools and practices that cover a wide range of public health concerns, including chemical, radiological, and natural disasters.

 

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In addition to the constantly expanding website, there is also a monthly email newsletter you can sign up for.

 

The About Us page provides an overview of the mission of the Public Health Practices website:

 

Features of Public Health Practices include:

  • More than 300 public health practices in 9 categories of emergency preparedness and disaster response from state and local health agencies, community-based organizations, and colleges and universities.
  • In-depth stories on how state and local projects were created, communications materials in more than 40 languages, and tools like job action sheets and media campaigns.
  • Expert reviewers' commentary on a practice's effectiveness, reach, sustainability, feasibility, and transferability. Please note: expert review is only available for a select number of practices.
  • A regular e-newsletter featuring our newest practices and other updates from the CIDRAP Public Health Practices staff.
  • The ability to search for practices based on geography, available languages, and key topics in preparedness and response.

 

 

If you are interested in starting a community public health, preparedness, or response program - or one for a college or university - a visit to this website could save you and your organization or agency a lot of time, money, and aggravation.

 

Some recent additions to the site include:

 

Recent Practices

Curriculum trains children to act as disaster preparedness ambassadors to their families

 

Guidance helps integrate concerns about sexual violence into the roles and procedures of disaster responders

 

Parochial Armenian schools develop and implement an earthquake preparedness program

 

Framework provides strategies for addressing resource scarcity in hospitals and clinics during a regional response

 

Toolkit paves the way for hospitals to meet children's needs during a disaster

 

Partnership with Civil Air Patrol allows winter transport of emergency medications to Michigan's Upper Peninsula

 

 

Whether you are looking for a specific solution, or simply looking for muse to inspire your organization’s emergency preparedness efforts, visiting Public Health Practices – and returning often – will likely pay tremendous dividends.

 

Highly recommended.

»» Read More

How The ECDC Will Spend Your Summer Vacation

 

 

# 6374

 

This summer there will be three high profile, well-attended public events in Europe; The London Olympics and Para-Olympics Games, and the UEFA EURO 2012 football championship (which is being hosted by Poland and the Ukraine).

 

Hundreds of thousands of visitors will converge on multiple venues over the summer, coming from all parts of Europe and around the world.  And as with any large gathering of people, there are serious public health concerns.

 

Over the past few months we’ve seen some hyperbolic media stories suggesting that these games could help launch the next pandemic, but past experience with other big travel events, like the Hajj, the Carnival in rio, The World Cup,  or our own Super Bowl suggests that is unlikely.

 

It is true that some disease outbreaks have been exacerbated by the gathering of large crowds. 

 

This past year a number of people were exposed to measles at the Super Bowl in Indianapolis, leading to a limited outbreak of the disease (mostly among the unvaccinated).

 

Perhaps most famously, the city of Philadelphia went ahead with plans to hold a Liberty Loan parade in September of 1918, which was attended by 200,000 people.

 

Although the flu pandemic had already begun, the city fathers were apparently heartened by the low number of cases that had been reported in Philadelphia. Other cities, like St. Louis, banned public gatherings, closed movie theatres, and even limited church gatherings.

 

What happened next is best demonstrated by the following graph, which depicts an explosion of pandemic flu cases beginning just days after the parade.

The chart above, taken from the PNAS journal article entitled Public Health Interventions and Pandemic Intensity During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic , shows the excess mortality in two American cities.

 

The tall spike represents Philadelphia, while the lower curve represents St. Louis.

 

Over the next three weeks, at least 6,081 deaths from influenza and 2,651 deaths from pneumonia were registered in Pennsylvania, most occurring in Philadelphia (CDC source).

 

So the potential is there, assuming that a novel pathogen to which there is limited immunity is introduced to the crowds.

 

The good news is, that while mass gatherings provide greater opportunities for disease outbreaks, history has shown that serious outbreaks like that which followed the 1918 Philadelphia parade are a rarity.

 

Still, there is enough concern that a good deal of planning has gone into the surveillance and prevention of disease spread at these summer events. Earlier this year in Lancet: Mass Gatherings And Health, we looked at a 6-part series on public health measures during mass gathering events.

 

 

The ECDC has published a report today outlining some of the steps they are taking to try to prevent disease outbreaks during these mass gathering events.

 

Watching the summer games

08 Jun 2012

Two large mass gathering events involving millions of EU citizens and worldwide visitors are being hosted this summer in the EU: the UEFA EURO 2012 football championship and London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

 

ECDC is enhancing its surveillance activities this summer, watching for any infectious disease health events that could present a public health threat during these sport events. As of today, a summary of relevant health events will be included in the weekly Communicable Disease Threat Report (CDTR), published on this website.

 

ECDC is working with the hosting country competent bodies of Poland, the United Kingdom and the Ukraine to provide international surveillance activities in order to support their public health actions.

 

Global mass gathering events can present challenges for public health because of their scale and the possible additional demands made of the public health services. To tackle these challenges, surveillance systems can be enhanced to target specific diseases or syndromes and to support timely response actions to reduce their impact and risk of spread.

 

Based on its founding regulation, one of the core functions of ECDC is undertaking daily 24/7 epidemic intelligence. This term encompasses activities related to early identification of potential health threats, as well as their verification, assessment and investigation, in order to recommend adequate public health control measures. Epidemic intelligence sources of information vary from health data routinely collected through standardised surveillance systems to unstructured official and unofficial reports of any origin.

 

What will ECDC be doing during these mass gathering events?

During the months of June-September 2012, ECDC is undertaking enhanced event-based surveillance as part of its routine epidemic intelligence activities. It has adapted media screening tools and its procedures to assist detecting timely infectious disease threats which may be relevant for these events, and the hosting and participating countries. The use of social media and blog fora as a mechanism of timely identification of disease threats is being explored in this context.

 

ECDC is working very closely with the hosting countries and international partners such as the World Health Organisation, including having liaison officers to facilitate daily communication with ECDC. A daily bulletin containing information on events relevant from a public health perspective will be provided to public health authorities of Member States and the event-hosting countries.

 

A summary of relevant infectious disease threats will be included in the weekly CDTR published on this website.

 

What kind of infectious diseases is ECDC looking for?

Large gatherings of people may be subject to increased public health risks, including non-communicable diseases. Based on experience from previous such mass gatherings, it is unlikely that infectious diseases will be a major problem at these two events.

 

The greatest risk for visitors to these mass gatherings is likely to be related to food and waterborne diseases, such as food poisoning due to inappropriately handled food items or inadequate hand hygiene practices. At the same time, in the context of outbreaks of measles and other vaccine preventable diseases in Europe, unvaccinated and non-immune people may be at increased risk of infection.

 

In addition to food- and water-borne diseases and vaccine preventable diseases, ECDC will be monitoring for a wide range of infectious diseases and syndromes through available data sources and networks, as it does on a daily basis, in order to detect unusual events or outbreaks.

 

The organisers of these mass gatherings have published public messages about how to stay healthy in order to best enjoy these events. Preventative measures that people can take themselves and can contribute to keeping others healthy include things such as: washing hands regularly, ensure relevant vaccinations are up to date, practice safe sex, stay out of the sun, and stay at home if you feel unwell. For those seeking travel or health advice, specific information for EURO 2012 and London 2012 can be found below.

ECDC Rapid risk assessment on measles

WHO European Region on health planning for large events

 

 

Assuming that no large outbreaks of illness or disease occurs, it will be due primarily to the advance work done by local and regional public health officials in planning for these events.

 

The old saying is true, `When public health works, nothing happens’.

»» Read More

CDC Streaming Health: Influenza Videos

 

 


# 6294

 

The CDC, along with other government agencies, increasingly are using social media to inform and educate the public. In addition to their traditional web presence, we are seeing agencies use twitter chats and updates, stream live webinars and press conferences, and many of these agencies maintain Youtube Channels with updated selections of videos.


As an example, the CDC’s Streaming Health video channel features 300 videos, on a wide variety of health topics. 

 

Over the past week, they have uploaded 7 videos on influenza, which run anywhere from 2 to 10 minutes in length.

 

 

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Misconceptions about Flu and the Flu Vaccine

 

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    3:06

Flu: Medicine Safety and Children

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   2:45

Flu Warning Signs That Need Medical Care Right Away

 

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      8:55

Answers to Common Questions about Flu Vaccine Safety

 

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   6:27

Flu Vaccine Information for Pregnant Women and Children

 

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Answers to Common Questions about the Flu Vaccine

 

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   2:22

How to Know if You Have the Flu: Flu Symptoms

 

 

 

For convenience, you’ll find the videos arranged by topic in 18 playlists, including: Influenza, Emergency Preparedness, Novel H1N1 Influenza, Cancer, PSAs, and videos en Español.

 

 

In another social media venue, next Monday the CDC will conduct a `twitter chat’ on STD’s.  Here’s the announcement.

 

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Join us! We will be talking more about STD prevention and young people during our live Twitter chat with CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden (@DrFriedenCDC) on April 23 at 1 pm EDT. #CDCChat

»» Read More

How Parrot Fever Changed Public Health In America

 

 

 

Dr. Charles Armstrong - credit National Library of Medicine

 

# 6222

 

We’ve a report today out of the UK of a suspected outbreak of Chlamydophila psittaci, or `Parrot Fever’, in Tayside, Scotland. While somewhat rare, this form of pneumonia usually responds well to antibiotics if it is diagnosed and treated in time.

 

It’s an interesting enough report (h/t Shiloh on FluTrackers), but unlikely to turn into a big story. It does, however, allow me to revisit a fascinating piece of American history.

 

The STV story is linked below, but when you return, I have the tale of how the 1929 Parrot Fever epidemic in the United States helped to change public health in America.

 

 

Suspected outbreak of potentially fatal 'parrot fever' cases

A number of patients thought to have contracted the bug from inhaling dust from dry bird droppings.

13 March 2012 16:04 GMT

 

 


Just 10 years after the end to the horrific Spanish flu pandemic, which claimed more than 600,000 American lives (and tens of millions worldwide), a new and mysterious pneumonia began to spread in the northeast.

 

It began when Simon Martin, a worker at the Chamber of Commerce in Annapolis, Maryland bought a parrot for his wife Lillian 10 days before Christmas.

 


Hoping to keep it a surprise, he enlisted his daughter (Edith) and son-in-law (Lee) to keep the bird until Christmas day, but by Christmas Eve, the bird began to show signs of illness.

 

By morning, in a scene reminiscent of a Monty Python sketch, they had a late parrot on their hands.

 

Unfortunately, by New Years, Lillian, Edith & Lee were all seriously ill. A local doctor, who had read about a parrot fever outbreak in South America, put the pieces together about a week later.

 

In no time, newspapers had the story, and the country – still reeling from the Stock Market crash of October – and with memories of the 1918 Spanish Flu still relatively fresh – suddenly began to fear a new pandemic was on the way.

 

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 Sarasota Times Newspaper – Jan 8th, 1930

 

It didn’t help that 1929 also saw the biggest surge in influenza and pneumonia cases since the end of the great influenza. Newspapers, looking for something other than bad economic news to print, banged the `pandemic gong’ loudly.

 

By now, several employees at the pet shop were sick, and the mayor of Baltimore telegrammed the U.S. Public Health Service urgently requesting assistance. Within hours, Dr. Charles Armstrong – a pathologist with the USPHS – was put in charge of the investigation.

 

Three days later, more cases were detected hundred of miles away in Toledo, Ohio. By January 11th, there were two deaths and more than a dozen cases reported.

 

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Lawrence Journal-World - Jan 11, 1930

The newspapers had a field day, and `Polly Pandemic Paranoia’ swept the nation.

 

Upon discovering that the pet store in Baltimore had sold 36 parrots before Christmas, Armstrong and his team began tracking them down. Meanwhile, the health department began notifying local health departments around the country to be on the look out for possible cases.

 

Fortunately, it doesn’t take long before it becomes apparent that only those in close contact with parrots were at risk, and that actual the number of cases was very, very small.

 

Curiously, most of the victims were elderly widows.

 

While their age may have predisposed them to pneumonia, it was also suggested that some of them allowed their birds pluck seeds from between their lips or teeth (a trick I can remember my Grandmother performing in the 1950s!).

 

After a week of screaming headlines, the newspapers did an about-face and began to ridicule the story – even going so as to begin printing parrot jokes. Overnight the Polly Pandemic became a national joke.

 

But the investigative work continued.

 

Within a week, the story would take horrific turn, as a number of the investigators began to fall seriously ill. 

 

Several of them died.

 

On February 8th, lead investigator Charles Armstrong was admitted to the hospital with a 104 degree fever. George McCoy, director of the US Public Health Services’ very small and underfunded Hygienic lab, took over and in a daring move created a serum (this was before antibiotics were available) from the blood of a recovered patient, which he gave to Armstrong.

 

Armstrong would recover, and eventually wrote that there had been 169 cases of parrot fever nationwide, along with 33 deaths (including Dr. Daniel S. Hatfield and Dr. William Stokes of the Baltimore Health Department, and Henry (Shorty) Anderson of the Hygienic Lab)

 

 

In March, 9 more employees at the Hygienic Laboratory became sick, and McCoy ordered the lab evacuated, the test animals euthanized and incinerated, and the lab fumigated.

 

The outbreak was finally quashed, but out of it (and concerns over the recent rise in flu) came funding from Congress for a new, better staffed and equipped laboratory to replace the old Hygienic Lab.

 

They also gave it a new name: The National Institute of Health.

 

 

I’ve only covered the highlights of this fascinating story, and I would invite you to read Jill Lepore’s  New Yorker article from June 1st, 2009 for a far more detailed and vivid account:

 

American Chronicles

It’s Spreading

Outbreaks, media scares, and the parrot panic of 1930.

by Jill Lepore June 1, 2009

 

Jill Lapore also was interviewed on NPR’s All things Considered:

In 1929, Parrot Fever Gripped The Country

 

 

Dr. Charles Armstrong (September 25, 1886 – June 23, 1967) would go on to investigate many more disease outbreaks in his career, and would contract St. Louis Sleeping Sickness (St. Louis encephalitis) during the 1934 epidemic (but would recover).

 

The NIH has a full biography of this early disease detective available for free download (PDF) at:

 

"Charles Armstrong, M.D.: A Biography"

 

You can also find other accounts of this famous episode in public health in the 1939 book, Modern Miracle Men by John Drury Ratcliff (available HERE on Google Books) and in 2007’s Government and public health in America by by Ronald Hamowy (also available through Google Books here).

 

 

And you can review some of the early history of the NIH, including the origins of the Hygienic Laboratory after the Civil War, at the following NIH site:

 

Origins of the National Institutes of Health


Navigation map

 

 

As a parting shot, I wrote about another `Parrot Fever’ outbreak in the Netherlands back in 2007, in my blog To You, My Heart Cries Out Chlamydia.

 

(No apologies for the title)

»» Read More

Lancet: Mass Gatherings And Health

 

 


# 6079

 

Whenever there is a mass gathering (or migration) of people, the thoughts of public health officials inevitably turn to the prospect of having to deal with, and hopefully contain, outbreaks of disease.

 

With the upcoming Summer Olympics in London this year, it is not surprising that the The Lancet has devoted considerable space to a six-part series covering many of the public health issues that come with managing mass gatherings.

 

Concerns go well beyond infectious diseases like measles, influenza, and norovirus, and also involve terrorist attacks, crushing injuries from unruly crowds, food borne illnesses, and sanitation.

 

These articles are (unfortunately) behind a pay wall, but summaries are available (free registration req.), as is a short audio presentation where John McConnell discusses the background to the series.

 

 

Mass Gatherings Health

Published January 16, 2012

Executive summary

A six-part series describes the scope of the emerging specialty of mass-gatherings health. Mass gatherings are events such as religious occasions, music festivals, or sports events that attract enough people to exceed the capacity of routine health and public safety measures. Managing such events requires providing for all eventualities from infectious disease outbreaks to security against terrorist attacks. Thus mass gatherings health is a topic that goes beyond the scope of typical public health provision.

(Continue . . .)

 

This issue pops up nearly every year, and with good reason. Epidemiologists remember well the lessons of 1918,  where it was demonstrated that influenza epidemics can surge in the wake of large gatherings.

 

During the fall wave of the Spanish Flu most cities instituted strict public health ordinances; they closed schools, movie houses, pool rooms, restaurants . . even churches.

 

Those cities that took these measures generally saw much lower levels of death and illness.

 

But Philadelphia went ahead with a massive Liberty Loan parade on September 28th of that year, apparently heartened by the low number of flu cases reported in Pennsylvania to that point.

 

Thousands gather in the streets of Philadelphia for the Liberty Loan Parade.

Days after Philadelphia’s Liberty Loan parade in September 1918, which was attended by 200,000 people, hundreds of cases of influenza were reported. [Credit: Naval Historical Center]

What happened next is best demonstrated by the following graph, which depicts an explosion of pandemic flu cases beginning just days after the parade.

 

The chart above, taken from the PNAS journal article entitled Public Health Interventions and Pandemic Intensity During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic , shows the excess mortality in two American cities.

 

The tall spike represents Philadelphia, while the lower curve represents St. Louis.

 

Over the next three weeks, at least 6,081 deaths from influenza and 2,651 deaths from pneumonia were registered in Pennsylvania, most occurring in Philadelphia (CDC source).

 

So it is little wonder that we saw some amount of angst during the lead up to the 2010 World Cup games over the concern that it might enhance the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus (see Russia Urges Sports Fans Not To Travel To World Cup Game).

 

Each year there are multiple mass gatherings which could conceivably facilitate disease transmission; including the Super bowl, Mardi Gras, and Carnival in Rio, and the Hajj.

 

But the granddaddy of all human migrations takes place each winter across Asia, with the celebration of the Lunar New Year.  It is expected that more than 2 billion passenger journeys – mostly by crowded train –will be made in China alone over this six week period.

 

This year, the lunar New Year will fall on January 23rd, but the festivities span several weeks.

 

In many Asian cultures it is a long held tradition that people return home to attend a reunion dinner with their families on the eve of the lunar New Year. They stay a few days, then return to the cities from whence they came.

 

All of which provides opportunities pathogens to hitch rides to remote areas of the world where they may not have arrived yet, and for viruses to be carried from rural areas back to the cities.

 

Due to the potential for disease transmission (including mosquito borne illnesses, food poisoning, flu, etc.) during this very busy holiday period, the CDC posts some travel advice each year to those planning a trip to Asia.

 

Good Luck. Good Health. Good Cheer. Happy Lunar New Year!

Chinese dragon puppet

 

The good news is, that while mass gatherings provide greater opportunities for disease outbreaks, history has shown that serious outbreaks like that which followed the 1918 Philadelphia parade are a rarity.

 

Still, public health authorities must anticipate and prepare for the worst, even though it probably won’t occur. This is hardly wasted energy.

 

After all, we’ll never know the number of outbreaks that have been prevented by proactive measures over the years.

 

The old saying is true, `When public health works, nothing happens’.

»» Read More

CDC Update On trH3N2 Cases

 

 

 


# 5917

 

On Thursday of this week I wrote about A 5th trH3N2 SOIV Report, where the latest human infection from a recently identified swine flu virus was reported in the state of Maine. Over the past three months four other similar cases have been detected, 1 in Indiana and 3 in Pennsylvania.

 

While not spreading like the A(H1N1)pdm09 virus did in the spring of 2009, this new SOIV (swine origin Influenza virus) is nonetheless of some concern, since over time it might better adapt to human physiology and become easier to transmit.

 

How often viruses like this one make the jump from pigs, birds, or other hosts to humans is  unknown, but it probably happens more often than we know. Many viruses may prove only marginally adapted to humans and die out quickly.

 

With limited testing and surveillance, such one-off, dead-end infections would likely go unnoticed.

 

However, since 2005 improved testing and surveillance in the United States has picked up 26 novel swine flu infections (excluding the thousands of novel H1N1 infections that sparked the 2009 pandemic).

 

Most (but not all) had some exposure to pigs. As the CDC has previously indicated:

 

Likely transmission of swine-origin influenza virus from close contact with an infected person has been observed in investigations of human infections with swine-origin influenza A virus, but has not resulted in sustained human-to-human transmission.

 

In these five most recent cases, the virus has been a swine H3N2 virus with the M segment gene borrowed from the 2009 H1N1 virus. Essentially a hybrid – a new reassortant virus - that until this summer had not been seen before.

 

Reassorted viruses can result when two different flu strains inhabit the same host (human or otherwise) at the same time. Under the right conditions, they can swap one or more gene segments and produce a hybrid virus.

 

reshuffle

 

 

Five cases in three states over a few months does not a pandemic make, but this pattern does suggest that this new reassortant virus may be circulating (likely in pigs, but possibly in people) at low levels. 

 

Which leaves us essentially in a mode of watchful waiting.

 

This novel virus may sputter and die out, finding too few susceptible hosts to keep going, or it could – over time – better adapt to humans and begin to spread.

 

The good news here is that so far, this new virus does not appear to be exceptionally virulent.  The bad news is that this year’s vaccine is not expected to offer protection against it.

 

The CDC, along with many local health departments, continue to monitor the situation, and epidemiological investigations on how it is transmitted are ongoing. 

 


While the current threat to public health appears low, the Sept. 2nd MMWR report on this virus reminds us:

 

What are the implications for public health practice?

Non-human influenza virus infections rarely result in human-to-human transmission, but the implications of sustained ongoing transmission between humans is potentially severe; therefore, prompt and thorough identification and investigation of these sporadic human infections with non-human influenza viruses are needed to reduce the risk for sustained transmission.

 

 

Yesterday, the CDC’s HAVE YOU HEARD website updated the situation with the latest case information from Maine. Follow the link to read it in its entirety, and I’ll return with a postscript.

 

 

CDC Confirms 5th Case of New Swine-Origin H3N2 Reassortant in Maine

October 21, 2011 – – CDC has confirmed the fifth case of human infection with a swine–origin influenza A (H3N2) virus that carries the M gene from the 2009 H1N1 virus. This virus was first detected in a child in Indiana in July. Subsequently three additional cases of human infection with swine–origin influenza A (H3N2) viruses carrying the same genetic change were detected in Pennsylvania. Though rare, human infections with swine–origin influenza viruses can occur, usually after close contact with infected swine. The patient in Maine was reported to have attended an agricultural fair where animals, including pigs, were present. The child was not hospitalized. He received antiviral treatment and is recovering from his illness. Though an investigation is ongoing and surveillance for influenza–like–illness is being enhanced, no human–to–human transmission of this virus has been identified in Maine.

 

The patient had not received a seasonal influenza vaccination. However it should be noted that seasonal influenza vaccine would NOT be expected to protect against this swine–origin influenza virus because it is so different from the human viruses in the seasonal vaccine. Seasonal influenza vaccination is important to decrease the risk of getting infected with human seasonal influenza viruses, which are beginning to circulate in the United States for the 2011–2012 season.

 

While there is not a vaccine to protect humans against these swine–origin influenza viruses, there are two FDA–cleared drugs that can be used to treat illness with these viruses. The antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir – which are used to treat infection with human seasonal viruses – also have shown activity against swine–origin viruses. 

(Continue . . . )

 

 

Anytime a novel influenza virus jumps species and demonstrates the ability to infect humans, it is a matter of both scientific curiosity and concern.

 

We’ve seen a number of novel flu viruses emerge over the past few years (H9N2, H7N7, H10N7, H5N1, etc.), and with the notable exception of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus, all have turned out to transmit poorly in humans.

 

But of course, influenza viruses are notoriously unstable, constantly changing and evolving.  What is true today may not hold true tomorrow.

 

While it is always possible that the next pandemic will spring directly from the wild, the odds favor that it will come from a farm – where large numbers of animals intermingle, swap viruses, and come in daily contact with humans.

 

For more on the reassortment potential of avian, swine, and human flu viruses, you can’t do better than  Helen Branswell’s excellent Scientific American article from last December called Flu Factories, or her SciAm Podcast interview.

 

For earlier posts on this newly discovered trH3N2 swine flu virus, you may wish to revisit:

 

A 5th trH3N2 SOIV Report

CDC Update On Recent Novel Swine Flu Cases

MMWR: Swine-Origin Influenza A (H3N2) Virus Infection in Two Children

MMWR: Two Novel trH3N2 Flu Infections

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The `Contagion’ Conversation Continues

 


# 5834

 

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Over the weekend I posted my review of Steven Soderbergh’s pandemic thriller `Contagion’, while last Thursday I posted on the scientific plausibility of a Nipah-like virus sparking a pandemic.

 

UPDATE:  Fellow flu blogger and good buddy Scott McPherson has posted his review of this movie in  “Contagion” is a Deeply Unsettling, Haunting – and (Mostly) Realistic – Pandemic Film .

 


The movie has sparked a good deal of conversation – both online and in the mainstream media – on the potential of someday seeing a virulent pandemic like the one in the movie.


A few examples for you to check out.

 

First from Robert Roos at CIDRAP, we get an overview of the pandemic scenario, with comments by Dr. Ruth Lynfield, state epidemiologist in Minnesota, Dr. Michael Osterholm director of CIDRAP, and Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

 

'Contagion' portrays extreme but not impossible scenario

 

Next stop, Johns Hopkin’s University Gazette.

 

Contagion’: Wake-up call for public health systems

New movie is reminder that we must be prepared for lethal disease outbreak

By Mark Guidera,

Infectious disease and disaster preparedness experts at Johns Hopkins say that the premise of the just-released Hollywood movie Contagion, in which a lethal airborne virus spreads quickly around the globe, is realistic and should serve as a reminder that the United States has much work to do to prepare for a serious national emergency posed by a deadly virus that spreads quickly.

(Continue . . . )

 

From The Atlantic, two opinion pieces. 

 

First, one from Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, Director of the CDC.

 

CDC Director on 'Contagion': Deadly Viruses Could Spread Fast

By Thomas R. Frieden

Sep 10 2011, 8:01 AM ET 11

This is a movie, not a documentary, but you could see it play out in real life: The CDC identifies a new infectious disease every year

 

 

Next a piece by Dr. Larry Madoff – Editor of ProMed Mail – and director of the Division of Epidemiology and Immunization at the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (MDPH).

 

An Epidemiologist on 'Contagion': This Will Almost Certainly Occur

By Larry Madoff

Despite some disappointments, Contagion hits much more than it misses. The science is uncannily true, with rare exceptions

 

 

And finally, a CBS Morning Show feature on the movie, with an interview with CDC director Thomas R. Frieden who calls an outbreak such as the one depicted in the movie as `quite plausible’.

 

(Dbl Click to view on YouTube)

 

Frankly, the only thing implausible about the scenario depicted in the movie Contagion was the development, production, and the start of vaccine distribution in under 4 months time.

 

Someday, perhaps.  But not today.

»» Read More

NRDC Report: Climate Change and Health Threats

 

 


# 5735

 

 

The NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) is a non-profit, tax exempt, environmental action group that was founded more than 40 years ago, with a staff of over 300 scientists and lawyers and more than 1 million members.

 

Using data gleaned from the CDC and the National Climatic Data Center, the NRDC has put together a detailed series of reports on the impact of climate change on the health of those living within the United States.

 

This report is divided into 6 main sections.

 

Climate Change and Health Threats

 

Each section contains an interactive map showing the potential climatological impact on the health of Americans.

 

The one below shows that 28 states now host mosquitoes capable of carrying and transmitting tropical diseases like Dengue, but the report tells us only 3 (Florida, Virginia, and Maryland) have plans in place to deal with this contingency.

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Other infectious diseases that are likely to be exacerbated by climate change include other mosquito vectored diseases like the West Nile Virus, and tickborne diseases such as Lyme.

 

Extreme heat related illnesses, drought, flooding, and air pollution are all climate related health threats as well.


You’ll find numerous links to background reports and data on each of these topics, along with links to a number of state plans to deal with them.

 

There is a lot to read in these reports, including advice on how to deal with these dangers.

 

The NRDC published a lengthy press release yesterday regarding these reports and their interactive web tools.

 

In Your Backyard: Climate Change Will Worsen Extreme Heat, Flood and Drought Frequency, Air Pollution and Infectious Disease Threats

State-by-state analysis unveiled in new NRDC web tool

WASHINGTON (August. 3, 2011) -- Climate change is expected to lead to worsening drought conditions and greater heat extremes, increased threats of Dengue Fever, drought, floods, air pollution and myriad health problems, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council.

 

A new web tool unveiled by NRDC lets users read how their state might be impacted by climate change. On the site, www.nrdc.org/climatemaps, users can see local data and maps detailing extreme weather patterns throughout the country, see local climate change vulnerabilities and learn about health problems in their own communities that are connected to climate change.

 

Based on an analysis of data gathered from the Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other resources, NRDC’s new “Climate Change Threatens Health” webpage lets users see the effects of climate change at a regional and state level.

 

(Continue . . . )

 

 

Since the first step in making any preparedness plan is identifying potential threats, these reports provide valuable information for individuals, businesses, and local governments.

 

They are well worth taking the time to consider.

»» Read More

CDC Grand Rounds: Sodium Reduction

 

 


# 5515

 

 

 

Over the past few months – after seeing a gradual rise in my blood pressure – I’ve been working to reduce sodium in my diet.   It hasn’t been easy.  

 

Even though I add zero salt while cooking, or at the table (I haven’t owned a salt shaker in years), to my horror I realized that I’ve been consuming at least 3000 - 4000 milligrams of sodium nearly every day.

 

An amount nearly 20 times higher than the daily requirement, and 2 to 3 times higher than recommended for my age (1500mg)

 

(Note: The following slides come from the April 2011 Grand Rounds Sodium Reduction: Time for Choice)

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The problem is that restaurants, and processed food manufacturers, load up the salt content in their wares and the public literally has little control over their salt intake.

 

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It is sobering to realize that a can of condensed soup can contain more than 2,000 mg of sodium. A single tbsp of soy sauce (of which I used several in my `healthy’ stir fry) contains 600mgs. A slice of `healthy’ pita bread can contain more than 300 mg of sodium, a cup of oatmeal contains 277mg, and a cup of canned tomato sauce contains an absolutely mind blowing 1500mg.  

 

Salt (and hence sodium) is everywhere, and it doesn’t take long to exceed your maximum daily quota. It has become a chronic and insidious public health problem.

 

True, there are some sodium reduced foods out there.  But they are hard to find, more expensive, and frankly . . . very often still have more sodium that I’d like.

 

The toll that excess sodium takes is enormous, even if largely ignored by society.  Consumption of excess sodium drives up blood pressures, and that leads to more strokes, more heart attacks, and more kidney disease.

 

In fact, it is estimated that excess sodium in processed foods claims hundreds of thousands of lives each year, and drives up health care costs by tens of billions of dollars.

 

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Through diligent use of lower-sodium foods, I’ve managed to get my daily consumption down to around 2000mg a day. Of course, I do most of my own cooking, and only rarely eat in restaurants.

 

Even so, it hasn’t been easy.  And it requires constant vigilance and the reading of every food label. 

 

Manufacturers of processed foods rely heavily on sodium as a flavor enhancer, as a preservative, and to aid processing. They also fear that the public, now used to `salty’ foods, will reject lower sodium products.

 

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But there are ways for manufacturers to reduce sodium content and still retain flavor, safety, and texture.  

 

It just requires the will to do so.

 

The above information comes from this month’s Grand Rounds presented by the CDC.   In addition to the slides (of which I’ve only excerpted a few), you’ll find an hour-long video, some addition shorter videos, and other resources as well.

 

You can view this latest Grand Rounds presentation on the CDC’s Streaming Health Youtube Channel, along with more than 170 other videos.

 

For more on sodium reduction, you can read the IOM 2010 report Strategies to Reduce Sodium Intake in the United States.

 

While perhaps not as `exotic’ a topic as bird flu, Ebola, or even influenza, the toll that hidden excess sodium takes on our society and public health is far greater.

 

Other Grand Rounds presentations archived, and available for viewing, include:

 

 

Resources paid for my your tax dollars, and highly recommended.

»» Read More

Pandemics & The Law Of Unintended Consequences

 

 

 

# 5348

 

A variation today on a theme we’ve touched on before.

 

What happens to the environment during a pandemic when large numbers of people in a community are taking – and subsequently excreting in their urine & feces – antivirals and antibiotics?

 

Many of the life-saving drugs used during a pandemic are excreted at some percentage from the human body unchanged or as a bioactive metabolite.  Tamiflu, Erythromycin, and Moxifloxacin are almost 100% bio-actively intact at excretion.

 

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Supplemental Table 4. Assessing the Ecotoxicologic Hazards of a Pandemic Influenza Medical Response. Environ Health Perspect :-. doi:10.1289/ehp.1002757

 

 

A little more than four years ago, the subject of what happens to Tamiflu once it is excreted by the human body first graced these pages.

 

The blog was called The Law of Unintended Consequences, and it looked a study conducted at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Oxford, England.

 

Their findings were released in the January 2007 issue of Environmental Health Perspectives (EHP) in a report entitled, Potential Risks Associated with the Proposed Widespread Use of Tamiflu, that illustrated what might happen if millions of people simultaneously began taking Tamiflu and releasing it into our environment.

 

The upshot of the the study was that scientists believed enough of the metabolite OC (oseltamivir carboxylate) would be present in some rivers and streams, after sewage plant processing, to present a genuine risk to the environment.

 

The concern being that enough Tamiflu might persist after wastewater treatment and release to rivers and streams that it might speed the development of resistant influenza viruses in waterfowl.

 

Fast forward to October of 2009 and we saw another report (see Everything Old Is News Again), based on studies done the previous year in Kyoto, Japan – that showed elevated levels of the OC Metabolite in wastewater discharge. 

 

More recently, investigators looking at the levels chemicals in rivers downstream from a pharmaceutical manufacturing hub in India, found staggering amounts of antibiotics along with signs of resistant bacteria. 


That story was recently well covered by Maryn McKenna on her Superbug Blog (see Drug residues and drug resistance in water: Not good).

 

Today, a new study appears in Environmental Health Perspectives that reports on another potential problem inherent in the massive distribution and consumption of antibiotics and antivirals during a pandemic.

 

WWTPs (Wastewater Treatment Plants) depend upon microbial activity in order to breakdown or `digest’ sewage.

 

Antibiotics in the sewage – at elevated levels such as might be seen during a pandemic – could inhibit microbial activity, resulting in the failure of WWTPs and the discharge of under-treated wastewater into the environment.

 

First a link to the study, an excerpt from the abstract, and a link to the press release . . . then I’ll return with a little more.

 

Assessing the Ecotoxicologic Hazards of a Pandemic Influenza Medical Response

Andrew C. Singer, Vittoria Colizza, Heike Schmitt, Johanna Andrews, Duygu Balcan, Wei E. Huang, Virginie D. J. Keller, Alessandro Vespignani, Richard J. Williams

Background: The global public health community has closely monitored the unfolding of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic to best mitigate its impact on society. However, little attention has been given to the impact of this response on the environment.

 

Antivirals and antibiotics prescribed to treat influenza are excreted into wastewater in a biologically-active form, which presents a new and potentially significant ecotoxicologic challenge to microorganisms responsible for wastewater nutrient removal in wastewater treatment plants (WWPTs) and receiving rivers.

 

<SNIP>

 

Conclusions: The current pandemic influenza medical response might result in the discharge of insufficiently treated wastewater into receiving rivers, thereby increasing the risk of eutrophication and contamination of drinking water abstraction points. Widespread drugs in the environment could hasten the generation of drug resistance. These results highlight the need for empirical data on the effects of antibiotics and antiviral medications on WWTP and freshwater ecotoxicity.

Supplemental Material

(1.8 MB) PDF.

 

The 48-page supplemental file provides a pretty good look at the assumptions used in this computational study.

 

A press release summarizes this study’s findings, portions of which follow:

 

Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

Public release date: 2-Mar-2011

Effectiveness of wastewater treatment may be damaged during a severe flu pandemic

Existing plans for antiviral and antibiotic use during a severe influenza pandemic could reduce wastewater treatment efficiency prior to discharge into receiving rivers, resulting in water quality deterioration at drinking water abstraction points.

 

These conclusions are published this week (2 March 2011) in a new paper in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives, which reports on a study designed to assess the ecotoxicologic risks of a pandemic influenza medical response.

 

<SNIP>

 

The research team concluded that, consistent with expectations, a mild pandemic (as in 2009) was projected to exhibit a negligible ecotoxicologic hazard. However in a moderate and severe pandemic nearly all WWTPs (80-100%) were projected to exceed the threshold for microbial growth inhibition, potentially reducing the capacity of the plant to treat wastewater.

In addition, a proportion (5-40%) of the River Thames was similarly projected to exceed key thresholds for environmental toxicity, resulting in potential contamination and eutrophication at drinking water abstraction points.

(Continue . . . )

 

As Professor Emeritus of Statistics at the University of Wisconsin George E. P. Box famously observed:

 

“All models are wrong, but some models are useful.”

 

Until we actually see a severe pandemic combated by modern pharmaceuticals, it is impossible to know just how big the environmental impact will be. 

 

Computational models, such as the one above however, give us clues as to what might happen under various very specific scenarios.   

 

And what this study, and others in the past, have shown us is that the impact could be multi-faceted and pose significant public health ramifications.

 

The solution, of course, isn’t to withhold life saving antibiotics or antivirals during a pandemic. It is to recognize potential problems before they occur, and to devise contingency plans now on how to deal with them.

 

Much like the more famous Murphy’s law, the Law of Unintended Consequences is not a scientifically recognized law, as is Boyle’s or Torricelli’s.

 

Nevertheless, they can almost always be counted on introduce new complications anytime you attempt to to `fix something’.

 

Whether it is the creation of newly resistant organisms or the discharge of dangerous partially treated effluent into the environment, studies such as these give us new insight into unexpected problems we might face during a severe pandemic.

»» Read More