Showing posts with label Antiviral. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Antiviral. Show all posts

CDC Webinar: Antiviral Medication Recommendations For Influenza

 

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Credit – CDC COCA


# 6179

 

Primarily of interest to clinicians - including physicians, nurses, physician’s assistants, pharmacists, paramedics, veterinarians, epidemiologists, public health practitioners, and state and local health department officials -  the CDC will hold a webinar later today on the use of antiviral medications for influenza.

 

These COCA (Clinician Outreach Communication Activity) calls are designed to ensure that clinicians have the up-to-date information for their practices, and also provide Continuing Education Credits.

 

The details of today’s COCA call follows, along with links to some recent calls that are archived and available for viewing.

 

 

2011-2012 Influenza Season: Antiviral Medication Recommendations 

Continuing Education = Continuing Education Credits

Date: Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Time: 2:00 - 3:00 pm (Eastern Time)

Participate by Phone:

Dial:800-779-7163
Passcode: 7319016

Participate by Webinar:

https://www.mymeetings.com/nc/join.php?i=PW6062720&p=7319016&t=c

Presenter(s):

 

Timothy Uyeki, MD, MPH, MPP
CAPT, U.S. Public Health Service
Deputy Chief for Science
Epidemiology and Prevention Branch
Influenza Division
National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases
CDC

Overview:

CDC estimates that influenza virus infections in the United States result in an average of more than 200,000 related hospitalizations, and between 3,300 to 49,000 deaths each year, depending upon the severity of the influenza season. Annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all persons aged 6 months and older, and is the best way to prevent influenza. However, available evidence consistently indicates that antiviral treatment, when initiated as early as possible in patients with confirmed or suspected influenza, can reduce severe outcomes of influenza.  During this COCA conference call, a subject matter expert will review current Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) and CDC guidance on the use of antiviral medications in the prevention and treatment of influenza.

 

 

For a list of recent (and upcoming) conference calls, visit this link.

»» Read More

The CDC Responds To The Cochrane Group’s Tamiflu Study

 

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Photo Credit – Wikipedia

 

# 6127

 

Three weeks ago, The Tamiflu Controversy Continues  we looked at the ongoing debate over the effectiveness of oseltamivir (Tamiflu ®) in the wake of the release of a new Cochrane group analysis that found insufficient evidence to show whether the drug reduces influenza complications and transmission.

 

Robert Roos of CIDRAP provided a good summation of that Cochrane group analysis in:

 

Review renews questions about oseltamivir benefits

Robert Roos * News Editor

Jan 19, 2012 (CIDRAP News) – A lengthy new analysis of unpublished clinical trial data is renewing questions about the effectiveness of the influenza drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu), saying that although the drug shortens flu symptoms by about a day, there is no evidence that it reduces hospital admissions.

(Continue . . .)

 

 

While research purists may applaud their methods, the problem that I (and many others) have with this analysis is that the Cochrane group set the bar very high as to what studies they would consider, and effectively ignored any observational studies.  

 

As few studies met their criteria, they were unable to determine one way or the other, the overall effectiveness of the drug.

 

Despite the fact that their analysis was inconclusive, some aspects of the media immediately latched onto this as `proof’ that Tamiflu was ineffective. 

 

No doubt spurred by this media buzz, yesterday the CDC on their Have You Heard? website published their rationale for continuing to recommend the use of Oseltamivir for severe influenza.

 

CDC Recommendations for Influenza Antiviral Medications Remain Unchanged

February 7, 2012 -- A recent review of randomized clinical trial data for the influenza neuraminidase inhibitor antiviral medications published by the Cochrane Collaboration, and two related commentaries [“Rethinking credible evidence synthesis” and “Questions Remain over safety and effectiveness of oseltamivir”] published in the British Medical Journal, raised questions about the value of antiviral medications for the prevention and treatment of influenza. After careful consideration of all available evidence, CDC guidance on the use of antiviral medications remains unchanged. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) continues to recommend the use of the neuraminidase inhibitor antiviral drugs (oral oseltamivir and inhaled zanamivir) as an important adjunct in the prevention and treatment of influenza.

 

The Cochrane review assessed unpublished and published data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of oral oseltamivir or inhaled zanamivir versus placebo for early treatment (within 48 hours after illness onset) or chemoprophylaxis of uncomplicated seasonal influenza in otherwise healthy adults and children. The review concluded that in adults and children with influenza-like illness, early oseltamivir treatment shortens the duration of symptoms by approximately 21 hours compared to placebo. This finding is similar to results in published RCTs which reported a reduction of approximately one day of laboratory-confirmed influenza illness by early oseltamivir treatment. One RCT in children aged 1 to 3 years with influenza found a reduction of 3.5 days when oseltamivir treatment was started within 24 hours after illness onset. The Cochrane review was unable to reach conclusions about the efficacy of oral oseltamivir or inhaled zanamivir treatment to reduce health complications, including those which might result in hospitalization. The review authors reported that they did not have full access to all unpublished data for oseltamivir RCTs as requested from the manufacturer.

 

A systematic review of RCTs should include unpublished and published data, and researchers should have full access to these data. However, such a review may not fully inform the question of whether antiviral treatment reduces severe influenza complications such as those resulting in hospitalization in generally healthy persons because enormous numbers of participants are needed. The burden of influenza disease is greatest among the elderly, persons with underlying medical conditions such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, congestive heart failure, diabetes, pregnant women, and young children. These groups are at highest risk for developing severe complications from influenza resulting in hospitalization or death, and generally have not been studied in RCTs.

 

The Cochrane review did not consider any data from uncontrolled observational studies of oseltamivir treatment. While such studies have inherent design limitations, they can inform clinical practice and public health, especially when data from RCTs are unavailable or have not been conducted among high-risk groups or hospitalized influenza patients, or because having a placebo group would be unethical since antiviral treatment is recommended for these groups. Indeed, many observational studies of antiviral treatment of seasonal influenza or influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 (2009 pandemic H1N1) have been conducted among hospitalized patients, including critically ill children and adults. These observational studies from many countries have consistently found that early oseltamivir treatment of influenza patients reduces the duration of hospitalization and risk of severe outcomes such as intensive care unit admission or death. These studies have reported that clinical benefit is greatest when oseltamivir treatment is started within 48 hours of illness onset; however clinical benefit has still been observed when oseltamivir treatment is started up to less than 5 days after illness onset.

(Continue . . .)

 

 

While falling short of the `gold standard’ employed by the Cochrane group for inclusion into their analysis, we’ve a number of compelling observational studies to look at, including:

 

In 2010 we saw an observational study that appeared in JAMA  (see Study: Antivirals Saved Lives Of Pregnant Women) that strongly suggested that Tamiflu was life saving for some patients with pandemic flu.

 

And again in 2010, in BMJ: Efficacy of Oseltamivir In Mild H1N1, we saw a study which suggested that the administration of oseltamivir may have significantly reduced the incidence of pneumonia among otherwise healthy pandemic H1N1 patients.

 

And lastly, in Study: Antiviral Therapy For H5N1, we saw the largest study to date on the outcomes of H5N1 patients who either received, or did not receive, antiviral treatment.

 

The research appears in the IDSA’s  Journal of Infectious Diseases. The bottom line is essentially out of 308 cases studied, the overall survival rate was a dismal 43.5%.

 

But . . . of those who received at least one dose of Tamiflu . . .  60% survived . . .  as opposed to only 24% who received no antivirals.

 

 

There are other concerns when it comes to use of oseltamivir, of course. Including the possibility inducing side effects and the possibility of generating resistant strains of the influenza virus.

 

But for now, it remains one of the few pharmacological options we have available to treat severe influenza.

»» Read More

WER: Update On Anti-Viral Resistant Influenza

 

 

 

# 5940

 

During the 18 months prior to the emergence of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus, the old seasonal H1N1 virus developed nearly complete resistance to the antiviral drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu ®).  

 

The novel swine H1N1 virus – while resistant to the older amantadines – has fortunately remained sensitive to oseltamivir. The concern is, that over time, this newer strain might one day develop resistance as well.

 

So testing influenza samples for resistance-producing mutations, and epidemiological tracking of resistant isolates, is a big part of global influenza surveillance.

 

During the first two years, only 1%-2% of samples tested have shown the most common mutation known to convey oseltamivir resistance; H275Y, where a single amino acid substitution (histidine (H) to tyrosine (Y)) occurs at the neuraminidase position 275.

 

(Note: some scientists use 'N2 numbering' (H274Y) and some use 'N1 numbering' (H275Y))

 

Most of the cases we’ve seen reported are isolated and sporadic, with no apparent epidemiological links. 

 

Most occurred in patients under therapeutic or prophylactic treatment with oseltamivir, or were among immunocompromised patients; factors commonly associated with the development of spontaneous resistance.

In a few instances, we’ve see small clusters of resistant influenza, suggestive of person-to-person transmission of a resistant virus.

 

 

But these have really been the exception, not the rule.

 

For the most part, the 2009 H1N1 virus, seasonal H3N2, and influenza B remain overwhelmingly sensitive to oseltamivir.

 

 

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Today, the World Health Organization’s WER (Weekly Epidemiological Record) updates us on the detection of antiviral resistance in currently circulating influenza viruses.

 


Global monitoring  of antiviral resistance in currently circulating human influenza viruses, November 2011

4 November 2011, No. 45, 2011, 86, 497–508

Introduction


Antiviral treatment is an important tool in the clinical management of severe or complicated influenza, and treatment recommendations need to take account of information on the prevalence of resistance to antiviral medicines among the circulating viruses.

 

This article provides a brief update on global incidence of resistance in currently circulating human influenza viruses since the last published report on oseltamivir resistance in influenza A(H1N1) 2009 viruses, now termed influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 viruses.

 

It also highlights the need to monitor and report resistance during the post-pandemic period.

 

All influenza viruses currently circulating in the community are resistant to adamantanes (amantadine and rimantadine), but most are sensitive to neuraminidase inhibitors, although a limited number of sporadic cases involving resistant viruses have been reported.

 

However, a recently reported cluster of cases involving oseltamivir-resistant influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus suggests that such viruses may have been transmitted locally, and reinforces the need for continual surveillance.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

This report notes that a variant of the H1N1 virus I wrote about earlier this summer (see Eurosurveillance: A `Mildly’ Resistant Strain of H1N1 Emerges) has appeared in a small percentage of flu cases in Singapore and Northern Australia, but that no new cases have been reported since April of 2011.

 

 

This variant carries a S247N neuraminidase mutation, instead of the H275Y mutation mentioned above.  At least one case of a patient with both (S247N & H275Y) mutations has been detected, and that patient exhibited high levels of oseltamivir resistance.

 

This report concludes by stating:

 

The prevalence of resistance to neuraminidase inhibitors in circulating human influenza viruses remains low, and WHO guidelines for treatment of patients and use of antiviral medicines remain as previously published.

 

Recommendations For Post-pandemic Surveillance

WHO has collated and reported data on all known cases of infection with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus since the start of the 2009 pandemic.Such data support the conclusion that resistance to neuraminidase inhibitors does not currently constitute a significant risk to public health.

 

However recent characterization of case clusters, and an increased prevalence of resistant viruses in community-based cases, are causes for concern, and suggest that continued vigilance is required.

 

 

While surveillance for antiviral resistance continues to be reassuring, scientists remember the remarkable speed by which seasonal influenza went from being almost 100% sensitive to being nearly 100% resistant.

 

So, as the report says, continued vigilance is required. 

»» Read More

ECDC: Risk Assessment On Australia’s Antiviral Resistant H1N1 Cluster

 

 

# 5815

 

 

Roughly 10 days ago, in Australia Reports Cluster Of Antiviral Resistant H1N1, I wrote of a large clustering of oseltamivir (Tamiflu) resistant H1N1 cases in New South Wales. More than 2 dozen patients – roughly 14% of the isolates tested from that region since May – have shown a genetic mutation that confers resistance.

 

Ever since the novel H1N1 swine flu virus appeared in the spring of 2009, scientists have worried that it would someday develop resistance to oseltamivir as its predecessor - seasonal H1N1 - did in 2008.

 

Overall, however, the news has been encouraging.

 

During the first two years, only 1%-2% of samples tested have shown the most common mutation known to convey oseltamivir resistance; H275Y, where a single amino acid substitution (histidine (H) to tyrosine (Y)) occurs at the neuraminidase position 275.

 

(Note: some scientists use 'N2 numbering' (H274Y) and some use 'N1 numbering' (H275Y))

 

This recent jump in resistance in Australia is concerning as these cases have not been linked to prior antiviral use or occurred in immunocompromised patients, factors commonly associated with the development of spontaneous resistance in the past.

 

Today the ECDC released a 5-page PDF risk assessment on the rise of resistant H1N1 cases in Australia.  It concludes - that at least for now - “the risk of this cluster becoming more widespread and having public health implications remains low.”

 

It goes on to warn, however, that  “only ongoing surveillance will indicate whether this occurrence remains a localised event or whether it has the potential to become widespread.”

You can read the abstract or download the entire document from the link below.

 

 

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ECDC assessment on Oseltamivir-resistant influenza A(H1N1)2009 cluster reported in Australia

06 Sep 2011

Australia has reported oseltamivir resistance of A(H1N1)2009 influenza virus in the state of New South Wales, with assumed person-to-person transmission of the resistant strain. The European Centre of Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has produced a rapid risk assessment to assess the situation.

 

The oseltamivir-resistant cases had no known link to oseltamivir exposure and were not immunosuppressed, but were closely linked geographically. Samples from the cluster do not currently exhibit any resistance to zanamivir. Although the cluster has remained localised, it cannot be assumed that the variant virus will not spread.

 

ECDC concludes that at present, the risk of this cluster becoming more widespread and having public health implications remains low. However, if spread does occur, there will be implications for the prophylaxis and treatment of influenza patients and the consequences for public health in Europe will need to be considered.

 

Regardless of the outcome, constant antiviral resistance monitoring is vital in Europe and globally. Only ongoing surveillance will indicate whether this occurrence remains a localised event or whether it has the potential to become widespread.

 

Oseltamivir and zanamivir are active ingredients in antiviral drugs (Tamilfu, Relenza). Vaccination, supplemented by personal hygiene measures, remains the primary measure for prevention of seasonal influenza transmission. However, antiviral drugs are important countermeasures for prophylaxis and treatment, especially in vulnerable people and those with severe influenza.

 

Read the full ECDC risk assessment: Oseltamivir-resistant influenza A(H1N1)2009 cluster in Australia

»» Read More

Australia Reports Cluster Of Antiviral Resistant H1N1

 

 


# 5786

 

 

Since it first appeared in the spring of 2009, scientists have worried that the H1N1 swine flu would someday develop resistance to the antiviral medication oseltamivir (Roche’s Tamiflu ®) as its predecessor - seasonal H1N1 - did in 2008.

 

Overall, however, the news has been generally good.

 

During the first two years, only 1%-2% of samples tested have shown the most common mutation known to convey oseltamivir resistance; H275Y, where a single amino acid substitution (histidine (H) to tyrosine (Y)) occurs at the neuraminidase position 275.

 

(Note: some scientists use 'N2 numbering' (H274Y) and some use 'N1 numbering' (H275Y))

 

Most of these cases of antiviral resistance occurred spontaneously in people after being treated with the drug, and quite often involved immunocompromised individuals.

 

Yesterday, ProMed Mail published a report from Australia on an unusual and worrisome cluster of oseltamivir resistance in New South Wales.  More than 2 dozen patients – roughly 14% of the isolates tested from that region since May – have shown the H275Y mutation.

 

INFLUENZA (50): AUSTRALIA (NEW SOUTH WALES), H275Y MUTATION CLUSTER

********************************************************
A ProMED-mail post
http://www.promedmail.org
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
http://www.isid.org
Date: Thu 24 Aug 2011
From: Kate Hardie


A cluster of oseltamivir-resistant A(H1N1)2009 influenza cases with onset between May and August 2011 has been detected in the Hunter region of New South Wales (NSW), Australia.

 

Viruses from 25 of 184 (14 percent) A(H1N1)2009 cases from the Hunter New England region exhibited highly reduced oseltamivir sensitivity due to the H275Y substitution in the neuraminidase. The H275Y mutation is a well-established substitution previously reported to confer oseltamivir resistance in N1 neuraminidases and was present in the widespread oseltamivir resistant pre-pandemic seasonal A(H1N1) virus.

(Continue . . . )

 

Significantly, none of the cases reportedly took the antiviral prior to their flu test, and in follow up interviews with 16 of these cases, none have a history of being immunocompromised.

 

Jason Gale, writing for Bloomberg News, has more details, including some quotes from World Health Organization officials on this finding.

 

Tamiflu-Resistant Flu Outbreak Reported in Australia’s Newcastle, WHO Says

By Jason Gale - Aug 25, 2011 9:25 PM ET

 


For now, the H1N1 virus remains overwhelmingly sensitive to oseltamivir, even in the New South Wales region where all of these cases are located. And the H1N1 virus with the H275Y mutation remains sensitive to GSK’s Relenza, an alternative antiviral.

 

The concern is that this appears to be a biologically fit, easily transmitted strain of H1N1 and that it might eventually spread beyond this region.

 

Which is exactly what we saw happen with the old seasonal H1N1 virus, when in early 2008 Norway began to report a rise in resistant samples, and less than a year later the resistant strain was the predominant strain around the world.

 

It’s a crowded viral field out there, and whether this resistant strain can compete with the numerous non-resistant strains of H1N1 on the global stage is something we will have to wait to see.

 

This is a compelling enough reason, however, to get that seasonal flu shot this year. It is better to try to prevent the flu, than to have to treat it. 

 

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Photo Credit PHIL

 

Particularly if treatment options should become more limited in the future.

»» Read More

MIT: Researchers Testing A Broad Spectrum Antiviral

 

 

 

# 5748

 

Overnight Crof over at Crofsblog carried an excerpt (see Broad-spectrum antiviral therapeutics) from a PLoS One article on research being done at MIT on developing a unique antiviral drug approach, dubbed Double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) Activated Caspase Oligomerizer (DRACO).

 

While the popular media has already jumped on this story, all but proclaiming that a `cure for the common cold’ is at hand, extensive testing and research lies ahead before that can become a reality.

 

Nonetheless, this is a fascinating story.

 

If future testing shows this drug to be both safe and effective on humans, this could one day end up being a major advance in medical science. 

 

From the MIT Newsroom, we’ve a press release that explains this new discovery.

 

Photo Credit – MIT

The microscope images above show that DRACO successfully treats viral infections. In this set of four photos, dengue hemorrhagic fever virus kills untreated monkey cells (lower left), whereas DRACO has no toxicity in uninfected cells (upper right) and cures an infected cell population (lower right).

 

New drug could cure nearly any viral infection

 

Researchers at MIT’s Lincoln Lab have developed technology that may someday cure the common cold, influenza and other ailments.

Anne Trafton, MIT News Office

August 10, 2011

 

Most bacterial infections can be treated with antibiotics such as penicillin, discovered decades ago. However, such drugs are useless against viral infections, including influenza, the common cold, and deadly hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola.

 

Now, in a development that could transform how viral infections are treated, a team of researchers at MIT’s Lincoln Laboratory has designed a drug that can identify cells that have been infected by any type of virus, then kill those cells to terminate the infection.

 

In a paper published July 27 in the journal PLoS One, the researchers tested their drug against 15 viruses, and found it was effective against all of them — including rhinoviruses that cause the common cold, H1N1 influenza, a stomach virus, a polio virus, dengue fever and several other types of hemorrhagic fever.

 

The drug works by targeting a type of RNA produced only in cells that have been infected by viruses. “In theory, it should work against all viruses,” says Todd Rider, a senior staff scientist in Lincoln Laboratory’s Chemical, Biological, and Nanoscale Technologies Group who invented the new technology.

 

(Continue . . . )

»» Read More

Eurosurveillance: A `Mildly’ Resistant Strain of H1N1 Emerges

 

 

# 5919

 

 

The acquisition of antiviral resistance by influenza strains is a constant worry, given their long history of eventually finding their way around our pharmaceutical defenses. 

 

Not so long ago Amantadine (an M2 ion channel blocker) was the preferred influenza antiviral.  It was cheap, plentiful, and effective.

 

But by the mid 2000s Amantadine began to lose its ability to combat the H3N2 seasonal flu virus along with some strains of the H5N1 bird flu.

 

It has been suggested that the prophylactic use of Amantadine by Chinese poultry farmers (who supposedly included it in their chicken feed for several years) may have contributed to this sudden resistance.

 

But whatever the cause, by January of 2006 the CDC had issued a warning to doctors not to rely on Amantadine (or Rimantadine) to treat influenza.

 

Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) – a newer neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor drug  introduced in 1999 - while far more expensive, became the new treatment standard.

 

But by 2008 seasonal H1N1 began to show growing resistance to Oseltamivir as well (although H3N2 remained sensitive).

 

By the spring of 2009, - in the space of just about a  year seasonal H1N1 had gone from almost 100% sensitive to the drug to nearly 100% resistant.

 

The arrival of the novel 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus was a game changer, in that it – unlike seasonal H1N1 – was still sensitive to oseltamivir (but not Amantadine).

 

Since then, we’ve been watching to see if – like its seasonal cousin – A/H1N1/2009 learns to evade oseltamivir and/or zanamivir as well.

 

So far, the news has been generally good.

 

Only 1%-2% of samples tested have shown the most common mutation known to convey oseltamivir resistance; H275Y, where a single amino acid substitution (histidine (H) to tyrosine (Y)) occurs at the neuraminidase position 275.

 

(Note: some scientists use 'N2 numbering' (H274Y) and some use 'N1 numbering' (H275Y))

 

 

Of course, resistance to antivirals is usually a matter of degree. A virus may become strongly resistant, rendering an antiviral all but useless, or just mildly resistant, which may simply reduce the drugs effectiveness.

 

We’ve a report appearing in Eurosurveillance this week which looks at the emergence of an H1N1 mutation that is mildly resistant to oseltamivir and zanamivir due to a different sort of  mutation; S247N (serine (S) to asparagine (N)) mutation at the neuraminidase position 247.

 

This emerging mutation has been appearing with some frequency in Australia, Brunei and Singapore.

 

 

Eurosurveillance, Volume 16, Issue 23, 09 June 2011

Rapid communications

 

Increased detection in Australia and Singapore of a novel influenza A(H1N1)2009 variant with reduced oseltamivir and zanamivir sensitivity due to a S247N neuraminidase mutation

 

A C Hurt, R T Lee, S K Leang, L Cui, Y M Deng, S P Phuah, N Caldwell, K Freeman, N Komadina, D Smith, D Speers, A Kelso, R T Lin, S Maurer-Stroh, I G Barr

 

A novel influenza A(H1N1)2009 variant with mildly reduced oseltamivir and zanamivir sensitivity has been detected in more than 10% of community specimens in Singapore and more than 30% of samples from northern Australia during the early months of 2011.

 

The variant, which has also been detected in other regions of the Asia-Pacific, contains a S247N neuraminidase mutation. When combined with the H275Y mutation, as detected in an oseltamivir-treated patient, the dual S247N+H275Y mutant had extremely high oseltamivir resistance.

 

In and of itself, this mutation may not be enough to produce clinical resistance to oseltamivir and zanamivir, as the reduction in sensitivity observed was just 6 fold and 3 fold respectively.

 

But when combined with the better known H275Y mutation, a virus with the S247N mutation proved 10 times more resistant than with the H275Y mutation alone.

 

The concern is that this mutation, which appears to be biologically fit and easily transmissible, may team up with other mutations known to produce varying degrees of resistance – and together they could prove far more problematic.

 

While the entire article is well worth reading, the authors conclude with:

 

If the S247N variant spreads globally, the greatest concern is that other NA mutations which may have previously caused only mild reductions in NAI susceptibility (e.g. mutations at the I223 residue) could instead cumulatively decrease NAI sensitivity to levels that may be clinically significant and affect treatment efficacy.

 

Laboratories should consider screening currently circulating specimens and isolates for the S247N NA mutation to determine whether the variant is spreading into other regions.

 

 

Although our antiviral arsenal remains largely effective against the new H1N1 virus, over time, that could change.

 

All of which points towards the wisdom of getting a flu shot every year. While not 100% protective, the yearly influenza vaccine can significantly reduce your chances of catching the flu.

 

After all, it is nearly always better to try to prevent an illness, than to have to treat one.   

»» Read More

Pandemics & The Law Of Unintended Consequences

 

 

 

# 5348

 

A variation today on a theme we’ve touched on before.

 

What happens to the environment during a pandemic when large numbers of people in a community are taking – and subsequently excreting in their urine & feces – antivirals and antibiotics?

 

Many of the life-saving drugs used during a pandemic are excreted at some percentage from the human body unchanged or as a bioactive metabolite.  Tamiflu, Erythromycin, and Moxifloxacin are almost 100% bio-actively intact at excretion.

 

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Supplemental Table 4. Assessing the Ecotoxicologic Hazards of a Pandemic Influenza Medical Response. Environ Health Perspect :-. doi:10.1289/ehp.1002757

 

 

A little more than four years ago, the subject of what happens to Tamiflu once it is excreted by the human body first graced these pages.

 

The blog was called The Law of Unintended Consequences, and it looked a study conducted at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Oxford, England.

 

Their findings were released in the January 2007 issue of Environmental Health Perspectives (EHP) in a report entitled, Potential Risks Associated with the Proposed Widespread Use of Tamiflu, that illustrated what might happen if millions of people simultaneously began taking Tamiflu and releasing it into our environment.

 

The upshot of the the study was that scientists believed enough of the metabolite OC (oseltamivir carboxylate) would be present in some rivers and streams, after sewage plant processing, to present a genuine risk to the environment.

 

The concern being that enough Tamiflu might persist after wastewater treatment and release to rivers and streams that it might speed the development of resistant influenza viruses in waterfowl.

 

Fast forward to October of 2009 and we saw another report (see Everything Old Is News Again), based on studies done the previous year in Kyoto, Japan – that showed elevated levels of the OC Metabolite in wastewater discharge. 

 

More recently, investigators looking at the levels chemicals in rivers downstream from a pharmaceutical manufacturing hub in India, found staggering amounts of antibiotics along with signs of resistant bacteria. 


That story was recently well covered by Maryn McKenna on her Superbug Blog (see Drug residues and drug resistance in water: Not good).

 

Today, a new study appears in Environmental Health Perspectives that reports on another potential problem inherent in the massive distribution and consumption of antibiotics and antivirals during a pandemic.

 

WWTPs (Wastewater Treatment Plants) depend upon microbial activity in order to breakdown or `digest’ sewage.

 

Antibiotics in the sewage – at elevated levels such as might be seen during a pandemic – could inhibit microbial activity, resulting in the failure of WWTPs and the discharge of under-treated wastewater into the environment.

 

First a link to the study, an excerpt from the abstract, and a link to the press release . . . then I’ll return with a little more.

 

Assessing the Ecotoxicologic Hazards of a Pandemic Influenza Medical Response

Andrew C. Singer, Vittoria Colizza, Heike Schmitt, Johanna Andrews, Duygu Balcan, Wei E. Huang, Virginie D. J. Keller, Alessandro Vespignani, Richard J. Williams

Background: The global public health community has closely monitored the unfolding of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic to best mitigate its impact on society. However, little attention has been given to the impact of this response on the environment.

 

Antivirals and antibiotics prescribed to treat influenza are excreted into wastewater in a biologically-active form, which presents a new and potentially significant ecotoxicologic challenge to microorganisms responsible for wastewater nutrient removal in wastewater treatment plants (WWPTs) and receiving rivers.

 

<SNIP>

 

Conclusions: The current pandemic influenza medical response might result in the discharge of insufficiently treated wastewater into receiving rivers, thereby increasing the risk of eutrophication and contamination of drinking water abstraction points. Widespread drugs in the environment could hasten the generation of drug resistance. These results highlight the need for empirical data on the effects of antibiotics and antiviral medications on WWTP and freshwater ecotoxicity.

Supplemental Material

(1.8 MB) PDF.

 

The 48-page supplemental file provides a pretty good look at the assumptions used in this computational study.

 

A press release summarizes this study’s findings, portions of which follow:

 

Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

Public release date: 2-Mar-2011

Effectiveness of wastewater treatment may be damaged during a severe flu pandemic

Existing plans for antiviral and antibiotic use during a severe influenza pandemic could reduce wastewater treatment efficiency prior to discharge into receiving rivers, resulting in water quality deterioration at drinking water abstraction points.

 

These conclusions are published this week (2 March 2011) in a new paper in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives, which reports on a study designed to assess the ecotoxicologic risks of a pandemic influenza medical response.

 

<SNIP>

 

The research team concluded that, consistent with expectations, a mild pandemic (as in 2009) was projected to exhibit a negligible ecotoxicologic hazard. However in a moderate and severe pandemic nearly all WWTPs (80-100%) were projected to exceed the threshold for microbial growth inhibition, potentially reducing the capacity of the plant to treat wastewater.

In addition, a proportion (5-40%) of the River Thames was similarly projected to exceed key thresholds for environmental toxicity, resulting in potential contamination and eutrophication at drinking water abstraction points.

(Continue . . . )

 

As Professor Emeritus of Statistics at the University of Wisconsin George E. P. Box famously observed:

 

All models are wrong, but some models are useful.”

 

Until we actually see a severe pandemic combated by modern pharmaceuticals, it is impossible to know just how big the environmental impact will be. 

 

Computational models, such as the one above however, give us clues as to what might happen under various very specific scenarios.   

 

And what this study, and others in the past, have shown us is that the impact could be multi-faceted and pose significant public health ramifications.

 

The solution, of course, isn’t to withhold life saving antibiotics or antivirals during a pandemic. It is to recognize potential problems before they occur, and to devise contingency plans now on how to deal with them.

 

Much like the more famous Murphy’s law, the Law of Unintended Consequences is not a scientifically recognized law, as is Boyle’s or Torricelli’s.

 

Nevertheless, they can almost always be counted on introduce new complications anytime you attempt to to `fix something’.

 

Whether it is the creation of newly resistant organisms or the discharge of dangerous partially treated effluent into the environment, studies such as these give us new insight into unexpected problems we might face during a severe pandemic.

»» Read More

Japan Reports Peramivir Resistant Virus

 

 

 

# 5333

 

In 1940, even before penicillin could be rolled out for clinical use, a penicillin-resistant organism was detected by researchers in a sample of Gram-negative E. coli.

 

Ever since then, man has been in a ongoing battle to create new antibiotics and antivirals faster than nature can find ways to circumvent them.

 

One of the newest entries onto the antiviral stage has been peramivir (Rapiacta) introduced in Japan in 2010, and used under an EUA (Emergency Use Authorization) here in the United States during the pandemic.

 

Peramivir is an IV neuraminidase inhibitor, developed by BioCryst, and has been viewed as a potential successor to Tamiflu – particularly for severe cases of influenza.

 

Today we are hearing of what appears to be a single spontaneous mutation of the new H1N1 virus in a child receiving the IV peramivir therapy.

 

Spontaneous mutations of this sort, while notable, are not unexpected and are far less serious than a resistant mutation detected in a biologically fit (and circulating) flu strain.

 

The story from Kyodo News, and then I’ll return with more.

 

New flu virus resistant to antiflu drug Rapiacta detected in patient

TOKYO, Feb. 22, Kyodo

A genetic mutation of the H1N1 influenza virus resistant to the Rapiacta anti-influenza drug has been detected in a 5-year-old patient, according to the National Institute of Infectious Diseases.

(Continue . . . )

 

The child has reportedly recovered and has been discharged from the hospital. There are no indications that the mutated virus was transmitted further.

 

In March of 2010 we learned of another case of peramivir resistance (see NIH: Rapid Development Of Antiviral Resistance In Two Cases) during the fall 2009 pandemic wave.

 

Our arsenal of antivirals is limited, and some of the new ones in the pipeline are refinements of older drugs, which may prove vulnerable to some of the same forms of resistance.

 

Overuse of Amantadine, particularly its inclusion into chicken feed during the 1990s to combat bird flu in Asia – has been credited with a dramatic rise in influenza’s resistance to the drug by 2005.

 

Tamiflu (oseltamivir), released in 1999 proved extremely effective against influenza until 2008, when a resistant version of the old seasonal H1N1 appeared and quickly spread around the world.

 

Seasonal H3N2 remained susceptible to the drug.

 

The old H1N1 virus has been replaced by novel H1N1, which fortunately still remains largely sensitive to the drug.  

 

Scientists do worry that over time, the new H1N1 virus could pick up resistance to Tamiflu. And as we’ve seen in these two isolated cases, even newer generations of neuraminidase inhibitors are not immune to resistant spontaneous mutations.

 

The takeaway message from these reports isn’t that peramivir has already been rendered useless (it hasn’t), but that resistance can develop quickly in rare instances in some people while receiving these medications.  

 

Which is another good reason why getting a flu shot every year is an exceedingly good idea.

 

It is almost always better to try to prevent an illness, than to have to treat one.

»» Read More

JID: Emerging Influenza Resistance Threats

 

 

 

 

# 5125

 

 

The old adage - `if you make a better mouse trap, nature will begin to work on a better mouse’ - is well illustrated by the continual evolution of bacteria and viruses to evade our arsenal of antibiotic and antiviral agents.



Between MRSA and the growing number of emerging carbapenemases  - antibiotic resistance (rightfully) has most of our attention because it directly impacts tens of thousands of patients every year.   

 

Antiviral resistance – for now – is viewed with somewhat less alarm simply because we are not currently in an influenza pandemic, and it is rare that we encounter an influenza virus that is resistant to our entire arsenal of antiviral drugs.

 

But scientists worry that could change.

 

A few short years ago Amantadine (an M2 ion channel blocker) was the preferred influenza antiviral.  It was cheap, plentiful, and worked pretty well.

 

But by the mid 2000s Amantadine began to lose its effectiveness against the H3N2 seasonal flu virus and some strains of the H5N1 bird flu.

 

It has been suggested that the prophylactic use of Amantadine by Chinese poultry farmers (who supposedly included it in their chicken feed for several years) may have contributed to this sudden resistance.

 

But whatever the cause, by January of 2006 the CDC had issued a warning to doctors not to rely on Amantadine (or Rimantadine) to treat influenza.

 

Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) – a newer neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor drug  introduced in 1999 - while far more expensive, became the new treatment standard.

 

But within two years seasonal H1N1 began to show growing resistance to Oseltamivir as well (although H3N2 remained sensitive).

 

By the spring of 2009, - in the space of just about a  year seasonal H1N1 had gone from almost 100% sensitive to the drug to nearly 100% resistant.

 

The arrival of a novel H1N1 pandemic virus was a game changer, in that it – unlike seasonal H1N1 – was still sensitive to oseltamivir (but not Amantadine).

 

In short order novel H1N1 supplanted the seasonal strain, breathing new life – at least for now – into the neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor class of antivirals.

 

But over the past 18 months we have seen a small number (less than 2% of samples tested) of Oseltamivir resistant novel H1N1 viruses – along with some evidence of transmissibility. 

 

So the concern lingers.  If seasonal H1N1 could go from nearly completely susceptible to completely resistant to oseltamivir in a year’s time – could it happen again with the new H1N1 strain?

 

And if that happens, what antiviral alternatives do we have in the pipeline?

 

These issues are addressed in the January issue of IDSA’s Journal of Infectious Diseases in a pair of articles and an editorial.

 

First, links to the three JID items, followed by excerpts from the IDSA’s press release.

 

Dual Resistance to Adamantanes and Oseltamivir Among Seasonal Influenza A (H1N1) Viruses: 2008-2010” 
 

Evidence of Person to Person Transmission of Oseltamivir Resistant Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 Virus in a Hematology Unit

 

Emerging Influenza Antiviral Resistance Threats

 

 

A few excerpts from the accompanying press release:

 

 

Influenza Virus Strains Show Increasing Drug Resistance and Ability to Spread

 

Studies Highlight Need for New Antiviral Treatment Options and Strategies

Two new studies raise public health concerns about increasing antiviral resistance among certain influenza viruses, their ability to spread, and a lack of alternative antiviral treatment options. The findings are published in the January 1 issue of The Journal of Infectious Diseases.

 

(Please see below (above) for links to these articles online.)

 

Influenza viruses are treated with two classes of drugs: M2 blockers (adamantanes) and neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs), including oseltamivir and zanamivir.  While the spread of influenza strains with resistance to one class of drugs has been well documented in recent years, a new report from Larisa Gubareva, MD, PhD and colleagues at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and at health agencies in West Virginia, Texas, and Canada, confirms that dual resistance can emerge in several ways and has been on the rise during the past three years.

 

<SNIP>

 

Although dual resistant viruses are still rare, the investigators noted an increase in the number of tested viruses with this resistance, from 0.06 percent (2007-2008) to 1.5 percent (2008-2009) to 28 percent (2009-2010); however, during the 2009-2010 season the number of circulating seasonal H1N1 viruses was low, and only 25 viruses were tested.  “Because only two classes of antiviral agents are approved, the detection of viruses with resistance to drugs in both classes is concerning,” said Dr. Gubareva. “If circulation of viruses with dual resistance becomes more widespread among any of the predominant circulating influenza A viruses, treatment options will be extremely limited. New antiviral agents and strategies for antiviral therapy are likely to be necessary in the future.”

 

(Continue . . . )

»» Read More

CDC: 2010-2011 Interim Influenza Antiviral Guidance

 

 


# 5060

 

 

Last night the CDC posted the details of their 2010-11 Interim Antiviral Guidance prior to their appearing in an upcoming edition of the MMWR.

 

First, a list of the major changes to this year’s guidance, then the summary (published Nov. 8th), and finally a look at the table of contents of the full guidance. 

 

Interim Guidance on the Use of Influenza Antiviral Agents During the 2010-2011 Influenza Season

Primary Changes and Updates in the Recommendations

The 2010 recommendations include six principal changes or updates:

  • Antiviral treatment is recommended as soon as possible for patients with confirmed or suspected influenza who have severe, complicated, or progressive illness, or who are hospitalized.
  • Antiviral treatment is recommended as soon as possible for outpatients with confirmed or suspected influenza who are at higher risk for influenza complications; clinical judgment should be an important component of outpatient treatment decisions.
  • Antiviral medications currently recommended include oseltamivir and zanamivir, based upon recent viral surveillance and resistance data indicating that >99% of currently circulating influenza virus strains are sensitive to these medications.
  • Oseltamivir should be used to provide treatment or chemoprophylaxis for infants aged less than 1 year old when indicated.
  • Local influenza epidemiology and viral surveillance data, when available, and influenza testing of patients, when testing is done, should be used to help guide choice of antiviral medications when antiviral resistance profiles vary among circulating influenza A virus subtypes.
  • Antiviral treatment can be considered for any previously healthy non high risk symptomatic outpatient with confirmed or suspected influenza who is not in the recommended groups, based upon clinical judgment, if treatment can be initiated within 48 hours of illness onset.

 

 

This pre-publication summary was posted last week on the CDC website.  Follow the link to read the copious footnotes.

Summary Influenza Antiviral Treatment Recommendations for 2010-2011

  1. Studies indicate that early antiviral treatment can reduce the risk of complications from influenza, such as pneumonia, respiratory failure, and death. Antiviral treatment is recommended as early as possible for any patient with confirmed or suspected influenza who:
    • has severe, complicated, or progressive illness, or
    • is hospitalized, or
    • is at higher risk for influenza complications as follows:
      • Children younger than 2 years old;*
        • Although all children <2 years are at risk for severe complications from influenza, the risk is highest among young infants aged <6 months old. Because many children with mild febrile respiratory illness may have other viral infections (e.g. RSV, rhinovirus, parainfluenza, metapneumovirus virus), knowledge about other respiratory viruses as well as influenza virus strains circulating in the community is important for treatment decisions. **
      • Adults 65 years of age and older;
      • Persons with the following conditions: chronic pulmonary (including asthma), cardiovascular (except hypertension), renal, hepatic, hematological (including sickle cell disease), neurological, neuromuscular, or metabolic disorders (including diabetes mellitus);
      • Immunosuppression, including that caused by medications or by HIV infection;
      • Women who are pregnant or post-partum (within 2 weeks after delivery);
      • Persons younger than 19 years of age who are receiving long-term aspirin therapy;
      • American Indians and Alaskan Natives;
      • Persons who are morbidly obese (body-mass index ≥40);
      • Residents of nursing homes and other chronic-care facilities.
  2. Clinical judgment, based on the patient's disease severity and progression, age, underlying medical conditions, likelihood of influenza, and time since onset of symptoms, is important to consider when making antiviral treatment decisions for high-risk outpatients. When indicated, antiviral treatment should be started as soon as possible after illness onset.
    • The greatest benefit is when antiviral treatment is started within 48 hours of influenza illness onset.
    • Antiviral treatment may still be beneficial in patients with severe, complicated, or progressive illness, and in hospitalized patients when administered >48 hours from illness onset.
  3. Antiviral treatment also can be considered for any previously healthy, non high risk, symptomatic outpatient with confirmed or suspected influenza based upon clinical judgment, if treatment can be initiated within 48 hours of illness onset.

 

 

The full guidance can be accessed by clicking this link, or the table of contents image below.

 

image

»» Read More

PLoS Medicine: Mono or Combo Antiviral Therapy?

 

 


# 5028

 

 

Pharmacological victories over continually evolving pathogens are often fleeting at best. 

 

No sooner do researchers release a new generation of antibiotics or antivirals, than these organisms begin to find ways to work around them.  

 

History shows that if we create a better mousetrap, nature immediately goes to work building a better mouse.

 

Amantadine managed to remain an effective treatment and/or prophylaxis against influenza A for four decades, although it was used only sparingly for the first 30 years or so.

 

Overuse of Amantadine, particularly its inclusion into chicken feed during the late 1990s to combat bird flu in Asia – has been credited with a dramatic rise in influenza’s resistance to the drug by 2005.

 

Tamiflu (oseltamivir), released in 1999 proved extremely effective against influenza until 2008, when a resistant version of seasonal H1N1 appeared and quickly spread around the world.

 

Seasonal H3N2, along with the pandemic strain of H1N1, remain largely susceptible to the drug.  As does H5N1.

 

At least for now. 

 

We’ve a new study in Plos Medicine that takes a look at the best use (monotherapy or as a combination) of two well known antivirals used for treating seasonal (and by extension, pandemic) influenza.

 

The two antivirals in question are both neuraminidase inhibitors; Roche Laboratories  Tamiflu (oseltamivir) and GlaxoSmithKline’s Relenza (zanamivir). 

 

The study, which comes up with a somewhat surprising answer, is called:

 

Efficacy of Oseltamivir-Zanamivir Combination Compared to Each Monotherapy for Seasonal Influenza: A Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial

Duval X, van der Werf S, Blanchon T, Mosnier A, Bouscambert-Duchamp M, et al. 2010 Efficacy of Oseltamivir-Zanamivir Combination Compared to Each Monotherapy for Seasonal Influenza: A Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial. PLoS Med 7(11): e1000362. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000362

 

 

Over the 2008-2009 (pre-pandemic) influenza season, researchers enlisted the aid of 145 general practitioners across France, and conducted a randomized placebo-controlled study on adult patients with a positive influenza A rapid test and reporting flu-like symptoms for less than 36 hours. 

 

Those that fell into that criteria were randomized into one of 3 groups who received either:

 

(1) oral oseltamivir 75 mg twice daily plus zanamivir 10 mg by inhalation twice daily

(2) oral oseltamivir 75 mg twice daily plus inhaled placebo, or

(3) zanamivir 10 mg by inhalation twice daily plus oral placebo.

 

The assessment of each treatment regimen was evaluated virologically and clinically.  The participants in this study were all blinded to the individual treatment protocols. 

 

Using reverse transcription (RT)-PCR testing, they monitored nasal viral shedding levels, while clinical evaluation included the amount of time to resolution of illness and the incidence of secondary complications of influenza. 

 

Most (85%) of these patients were assumed to have had H3N2 seasonal influenza, which predominated that year.  The study was supposed to involve 900 patients, but was cut short by the emergence of the novel H1N1 virus in the spring of 2009, and so only 541 patients were enrolled.

 

The goal was to determine what worked best.

 

Tamiflu alone

Relenza alone

Or a combination of the two.

 

While a more expensive treatment option, many scientists have suggested that a combination of antiviralsinstead of using a single drug - might help prevent the creation of new antiviral resistant strains.

 

It has also been assumed that a combination of two antivirals might prove more effective as well.

 

Today’s study – while limited in scope and size – seems to call both of those ideas into question.

 

When the blinds were removed researchers discovered that by the 2nd day of treatment, 62.5% of those receiving Tamiflu alone saw a significant reduction in viral load compared to just 40.5% of those receiving Relenza. 

 

Additionally, the study found:

 

(reparagraphed from the study):

 

Overall the oseltamivir-zanamivir combination was both virologically and clinically significantly less effective than the oseltamivir monotherapy.

 

In addition, the clinical effects of the oseltamivir-zanamivir combination on time to resolution of symptoms were not significantly different from that of zanamivir monotherapy, suggesting that oseltamivir does not add clinical benefit to zanamivir monotherapy.

 

The combination of antivirals was also linked to a slightly increased incidence of side effects.

 

For ethical reasons, there was not a double-placebo arm to this study.

 

In other words, we have no comparison of outcomes between those who received no antivirals and those who received one of the protocols above.

 

The authors sum up their study this way:

 

 

Despite the theoretical potential for the reduction of the emergence of antiviral resistance, the lower efficiency of the oseltamivir-zanamivir combination found in this study calls for caution in its use in clinical practice.

 

Thus, also considering the superiority of oseltamivir monotherapy over zanamivir monotherapy observed in this trial, oseltamivir should be the recommended primary anti-influenza treatment during influenza seasons with predominant H3N2 viruses naturally susceptible to oseltamivir.

 

These results would need to be confirmed for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus and in the coming years, for future circulating influenza viruses.

 

The entire open access study is available here.

 

Interesting findings that will need to be analyzed (and repeated)  by others, particularly since the strain of H3N2 in circulation in 2008 is no longer with us. 

 

The results may not be the same with other virus strains.

 

This study also doesn’t resolve ongoing questions over whether single-antiviral drug treatment exacerbates the development of resistant strains.  

 

Given the limited number of influenza antivirals available now or in the pipeline, finding ways to protect the ones we have remains a serious consideration.

»» Read More

Referral: 3 Antiviral Reports From CIDRAP

 

 


# 4930

 

 

 

Last night in their news scan, CIDRAP featured three stories on antiviral use, effectiveness, and cases of resistance.  

 

All three are of considerable interest, so follow the provided links to read them in their entirety.

 

 

 

Multidrug-resistant 2009 H1N1 virus reported in teenager


A 2009 H1N1 flu virus that contributed to the death of a 14-year-old girl was resistant to three neuraminidase inhibitors, pointing up the need for new types of antivirals, according to a letter in the Oct 15 Clinical Infectious Diseases (CID).

(Continue . . .)

 

2009 H1N1 can gain Tamiflu resistance in less than 2 days


Physicians from Singapore say they determined that the 2009 H1N1 virus became resistant to oseltamivir in less than 48 hours after a 28-year-old woman began receiving the antiviral, much faster than reported in other cases, according to a report in Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID).

(Continue . . .)

 

Early antivirals failed to protect some patients in Japan


Researchers writing in Clinical Infectious Diseases (CID) report that significant percentages of Japanese patients who had fatal or severe cases of 2009 H1N1 flu during the pandemic had received early antiviral treatment (oseltamivir or zanamivir).

(Continue . . .)

 

»» Read More

ECDC: Effectiveness Of Chemo-Prophylaxis During The Pandemic

 

 


# 4853

 

 

During the opening months of the pandemic there were widely varying policies and opinions around the world as to how antivirals would be used. 

 

In the UK, fearing that patient loads would overwhelm their medical system, just about anyone who exhibited flu-like symptoms could call a hotline and get a packet of Tamiflu prescribed without testing or seeing a doctor.

 

In the United States, and many other countries, antivirals were used more conservatively, partially out of concerns over fostering antiviral resistance.

 

Now that the pandemic is over, we are getting studies looking at how these varying strategies worked.  

 

Today the ECDC’s web portal has summaries, and a comparison, of two recent journal articles that looked at the therapeutic and prophylactic use of antivirals during the pandemic.

 

Differing effectiveness of the therapeutic and prophylactic use of antivirals and other measures for public health purposes during the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic

31 Aug 2010

 

 

The two studies in question are:

Lee VJ, Yap J, Cook AR, et al.
Oseltamivir Ring Prophylaxis for Containment of 2009 H1N1 Influenza Outbreaks
New England Journal of Medicine; Volume 362:2166-2174; 10 June 2010; Number 23

and

Health Protection Agency UK The role of the Health Protection Agency in the ‘containment’ phase during the first wave of pandemic influenza in England in 2009
Health Protection Agency, March 2010

 

At first glance, these two studies appear to come up with different conclusions. 

 

In the first study, which I profiled back in June (see CIDRAP On Two NEJM Pandemic H1N1 Studies), ring prophylaxis (or PEP) was shown to slow down or contain an influenza outbreak in a closed or semi-closed setting.

 

The second study, conducted by the UK’s HPA, found that chemo-prophylaxis could be effective in the home, and somewhat effective in schools, but proved less effective when scaled up to a larger community.

 

The ECDC’s comment (slightly reformatted for readabilty) follows:

 

ECDC Comment (19/08/10)


On the surface these two evaluations suggest different outcomes while in reality they are compatible.

 

Both found that if antivirals are used intensively in small defined populations in combination with personal health measures even pandemic influenza can be halted at least for a while. That is consistent with other observations of the effectiveness of oseltamivir against the pandemic strain.(1)

 

However when scaling up to the macro-level such containment is simply impossible as well as being very resource intensive and exhausting.  That is what was suggested by WHO in April and the UK experience was reported to the Swedish Presidency meetings in July 2009 which led to the abandonment of containment policies in Europe.(2,3)

 

It had been pointed out in the UK by their official evaluation that containment was never part of the original plan.(4)

 

Whether or not to use antivirals in a pandemic remains a controversial area. In some EU countries it was policy to offer them to all people when they developed symptoms, in others only to those at higher risk of severe disease and in yet others to confine their use to those ill enough to require hospital treatment.

 

Dilemmas for clinicians were that it is generally agreed that to be effective antivirals had to be given early, hence waiting for someone to become very ill was risky. Equally the policy of giving treatment to only those in the risk group was confronted with the fact that around 30% of those who eventually died from the pandemic infection were outside any risk group.(5) 

 

 

Of course, limiting the spread of the virus isn’t the only measure of the effectiveness of chemoprophylaxis. 

 

The aggressive use of antivirals in some communities may have reduced pandemic morbidity or mortality, but without a uniform surveillance and reporting system (and definition of `flu-related fatality’), it is exceedingly difficult to judge.

 

No doubt, some group of researchers is working on that weighty problem, and in time we may have a better idea of how antiviral use affected these numbers.

 

The pandemic of 2009 will no doubt end up being the most studied pandemic in history (up to now). 

 

Over time we should end up with a better understanding of what mitigation strategies worked best under which circumstances.

 

It is unlikely, however, that we will find a `one-size-fits-all’ solution.

»» Read More

CIDRAP On Two NEJM Pandemic H1N1 Studies

 

 

# 4637

 

 

Last night Robert Roos of CIDRAP reviewed two studies that appeared yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM).

 

One on the use of Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) as a prophylactic measure among military units in Singapore, and a second on the transmission of novel H1N1 among family members in Hong Kong.

 

First the CIDRAP article (follow the link to read in its entirety),  then a little discussion.

 

Studies examine H1N1 spread in military units, households

Robert Roos * News Editor

Jun 9, 2010 (CIDRAP News) – When the H1N1 pandemic influenza began hitting Singapore's military forces last summer, health officials largely arrested its spread by giving oseltamivir to everyone in the affected units, in combination with other preventive steps, according to a report released today.

 

Among 1,175 soldiers in four settings, 75 were infected before the preventive steps were taken, and only seven became infected afterward, according to the report in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM). The findings suggest that antiviral "ring prophylaxis," along with quick identification and isolation of infected people, can be effective in halting outbreaks in "semiclosed" settings, the researchers said.

 

In a second study, also released today by NEJM, Hong Kong researchers looked at flu in a modest-sized sample of households and found that pandemic H1N1 and seasonal flu viruses spread at about the same rate and caused illnesses of similar severity.

(Continue . . . )

 

  • Lee VJ, Yap J, Cook AR, et al. Oseltamivir ring prophylaxis for containment of 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreaks. N Engl J Med 2010 Jun 10;362(23):2166-74 [Full text]
  • Cowling BJ, Chan KH, Fang VJ, et al. Comparative epidemiology of pandemic and seasonal influenza A in households. N Engl J Med 2010 Jun 10;362(23):2175-84 [Full text]
  • Uyeki TM. 2009 H1N1 virus transmission and outbreaks. (Editorial) N Engl J Med 2010 Jun 10;362(23):2221-23 [Full text]

 

I’m going to wander a bit away from these two articles with some background, but I will come back. 

 

There are basically three uses for antivirals:

  • Treatment of those infected
  • Outbreak Prophylaxis for people who are likely to be exposed
  • PEP (Post Exposure Prophylaxis) - giving antivirals to those exposed, but not yet symptomatic to prevent infection.  

 

Treatment is pretty much self explanatory. Patients exhibiting flu-like symptoms (or who have tested positive for influenza) may be given antivirals for 5+ days to inhibit viral replication and mitigate the severity of the infection.

 

Outbreak Prophylaxis would be used to protect those at high risk of infection, such as ICU and ER doctors and nurses during a pandemic wave.  This would require a daily dose of the drug for weeks or even months.

 

PEP (Post Exposure Prophylaxis) is the U.S. equivalent of the ring chemoprophylaxis described in the Singapore study.

 

While the idea of Household PEP was floated by the HHS working group on antivirals back in June of 2008 in their Proposed Guidance on Antiviral Drug Use during an Influenza Pandemic, it was not officially endorsed.

 

In the two or three years before novel H1N1 erupted - as we watched and waited for a more severe H5N1 pandemic - the HHS built up the U.S. stockpile of oseltamivir (Tamiflu) to nearly 80 million courses (10 pills/course), and promoted the idea that hospitals and other large employers in the private sector stockpile antivirals for their staff.

 

In June of 2008, the HHS went so far as to hold a teleconference with officials from Roche Laboratories, to announce an antiviral reservation plan called RAPP, or the Roche Antiviral Protection Program  (see Roche Offers Companies Option To Reserve Tamiflu).

 

The US Strategic stockpile of antivirals, at 80 million courses, was hoped to be enough to provide treatment during a severe pandemic, but would fall far short of what was needed if Outbreak Prophylaxis or PEP was to be implemented.

 

Without adding PEP, the HHS working group determined that the number of courses of antivirals the United States needs on hand for a severe pandemic would be at least 195 million

Roughly 2.4 times more than the government had stockpiled.

In Proposed Guidance on Antiviral Drug Use during an Influenza Pandemic  the HHS working group urged that the private sector, mostly businesses - but `families and individuals as appropriate'  - stockpile the rest. 

 

This would provide:

  • 6M doses for deployment overseas to try to stop an outbreak
  • 79M treatment courses for the infected here in the United States
  • 103M courses to provide prophylaxis for healthcare and emergency service workers
  • 5M courses for outbreak control in Nursing homes, prisons, and other closed settings
  • 2M courses for people who are severely immuno-compromised

 

The authors of this HHS document point out that more than 150,000  American lives could be saved in a severe pandemic if households had antivirals available for PEP, or Post Exposure Prophylaxis.

 

To implement household PEP, however, would require another 106 million courses of antivirals, bringing the total needed to just over 300 million courses.

 

While some companies did procure antivirals for their employees, most declined.  The costs, logistics of storage and dispensing, legal barriers for dispensing prescription medications  – plus the potential liability – dissuaded many employers from participating.

 

Fortunately, the pandemic of 2009 wasn’t severe enough to require the kind of antiviral intervention envisioned by the HHS working group back in 2008. The next time, we may not be so lucky. 

 

H5N1 is still out there, and still has pandemic potential.  As are a number of other novel influenza strains.

 

The Singapore study is valuable because it proves that ring prophylaxis (or PEP) apparently can work to slow down or contain an influenza outbreak in a closed or semi-closed setting.   

 

It also bodes well for the effectiveness of Outbreak Prophylaxis among medical personnel, although there remain open questions on the wisdom of taking antivirals for weeks or perhaps months at a time. 

 

And there remain legitimate concerns that the large scale use of PEP and Outbreak Prophylaxis strategies might contribute to the creation and spread of antiviral resistant strains of influenza.

 

And to add another complication, the second NEJM study out of Hong Kong also suggested that patients infected with novel H1N1 who were treated with Tamiflu produced lower levels of antibodies than those who went untreated, opening the possibility that they might be at risk for re-infection.


Even if antiviral resistance and side effects from long-term use of these medications were not concerns, the quantity of antivirals required for large scale chemoprophylaxis, and the need to deploy and dispense them rapidly in an outbreak, remain daunting challenges.

 

Frankly, I’ve serious doubts that in this economy, and after the relatively `mild’  pandemic experience of 2009, that the private sector can ever be induced to pick up the 100 million to 200 million course `shortfall’ in this country’s antiviral stockpile.

 

So the point, at least here in the US, may be moot.

 

Besides,  even if they did make the investment in antivirals– given the concerns over potentially generating resistant flu strains -  getting the government’s green light to dispense them might  prove difficult.

  

 

All of which shows just how complicated the issues are and that there are no simple solutions to dealing with a pandemic.

»» Read More