NWS: Possible Coastal Storm Mid-Week

 

Source CDC

 

 

# 6694

 

As I mentioned on Thursday (see A Worrisome Mid-Week Forecast), computer models are increasingly indicating a coastal storm/Nor’easter for the Mid-Atlantic & New England states later this week.

 

Not only will this increase the misery factor for residents and rescue workers dealing with the aftermath of Sandy, for those without power or heat temperatures and wind chills may drop dangerously low.

 

This is the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook from the New York NWS, issued early this morning:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S.

THOSE WITHOUT POWER SHOULD PLAN FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S.

THOSE WITHOUT POWER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...RAIN/WINTRY PRECIPITATION...COASTAL FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION TO THE TRI-STATE AREA.

STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

 

 

The 7 day forecast for Newark, NJ gives a pretty good idea of the expected progression of the weather.

 

The concern here isn’t just for the cold, for every year we get tragic reports of people who either started a house fire, or succumbed to Carbon Monoxide poisoning, while trying to heat their homes during a power outage.

 

The sources of CO are numerous; faulty furnaces, snow blocked car exhaust pipes, attempts to use generators inside the house or garage . . . and the use of CO producing emergency heat sources all contribute to the winter body count.

 

The CDC’s MMWR released a report in 2005 called Unintentional Non--Fire-Related Carbon Monoxide Exposures --- United States, 2001—2003 that stated:

 

During 2001--2003, an estimated 15,200 persons with confirmed or possible non--fire-related CO exposure were treated annually in hospital EDs. In addition, during 2001--2002, an average of 480 persons died annually from non--fire-related CO poisoning. Although males and females were equally likely to visit an ED for CO exposure, males were 2.3 times more likely to die from CO poisoning. Most (64%) of the nonfatal CO exposures occurred in homes. Efforts are needed to educate the public about preventing CO exposure.

 

The CDC maintains a webpage on Carbon Monoxide, which you can access here, and has this short video on what they call the `quiet killer’.

 

 

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A Worrisome Mid-Week Forecast

Source NOAA HPC

# 6689

 

The very last thing that the residents of New England and the Mid-Atlantic states need right now is another storm to deal with, but early indications from NOAA’s HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) suggest a Nor'easter could be in store by the middle of next week.

 

The two forecast models above show the model runs for November 7th and November 8th. 

 

They show a low pressure area – potentially a winter storm – moving up the eastern seaboard during that time frame.

 

While six days out is a long way off, and the forecast could certainly change, any deterioration in the weather will make the recovery efforts in New York, New Jersey, and surrounding areas that much more difficult.

 

 

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

947 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2012

VALID 12Z MON NOV 05 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 08 2012

...NOR'EASTER POSSIBLE FOR MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES BY ELECTION DAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY...

<SNIP>

GUIDANCE STILL HAVE SOME TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES BUT COMMONLY AGREE THAT DEEPER LOW DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR MON-THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND UP OFF THE EAST COAST.
THIS WOULD BRING BEST ORGANIZED RAINS FROM THE ERN MID-ATLANTIC TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

 

A TRACK IN THIS VEIN OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER SNOWS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE LOW WRAPS INLAND.  INCREASING WINDS ALONG COASTAL NEW ENGLAND (AND POSSIBLY THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES IF A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK VERIFIES) TUESDAY ONWARD MAY LEAD TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.

 

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN HURRICANE SANDY AND PRODUCE IMPACTS MUCH LESS EXTREME AND MAINLY AWAY FROM THE REGION MOST
STRONGLY IMPACTED BY SANDY.

Obviously we’ll be watching these developments with keen interest, and the fervent hope that this storm fails to materialize.

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`Tis The Season

 

 

# 5971 

 

 

 

 

Although the reasons are less than entirely clear, every year during the winter months - more specifically from Thanksgiving to just after New Years Day – we see an increase in the rate of heart attacks and coronary related deaths.

 

This spike in `winter mortality’ has been blamed on a variety of factors.

 

Colder temperatures, increased respiratory infections (including influenza & Pneumonia), over indulgence in food and alcohol, diminished activity levels, forgetting to take prescription medicines, and the combined stressors of shopping, running up debt for gifts, traveling, meal preparation, and/or the stress that comes from dysfunctional family gatherings.

 

My guess is all play some part. 

 

But as a former paramedic, I can tell you that the holiday season always meant a lot of emergency calls.  Everything from cardiac arrests and car accidents to domestic violence and overdoses.

 

The rate of heart attacks in the winter run as much as 53% higher than during the summer. 

 

Seasonal distribution of acute myocardial infarction in the second National Registry of Myocardial Infarction.

Spencer FA, Goldberg RJ, Becker RC, Gore JM.

 

While cold weather combined with strenuous physical activity (like clearing snow from sidewalks) has often been blamed for this spike, even in balmy Southern California, studies have shown a 33% increase in heart attacks over the holidays.

 

When Throughout the Year Is Coronary Death Most Likely to Occur?

A 12-Year Population-Based Analysis of More Than 220 000 Cases

Robert A. Kloner, MD, PhD; W. Kenneth Poole, PhD; Rebecca L. Perritt, MS

 

 

Additionally, outcomes during the winter are worse – on average – than during the summer.  Again, there are theories as to why this might be so.

 

One idea is that during the holidays, people are more likely to delay getting treatment so as not to `ruin the holidays’ for friends and family.   They ignore chest pains, or other symptoms, hoping they will pass.

 

Another area of concern is that while hospital censuses are typically higher in the winter, the holidays may contribute to temporary staffing shortages.

 

A Duke University study looked at records of 134,609 heart attack patients admitted to the hospital in the middle 1990s.

 

They found that those hospitalized between December 15th and January 15th were slightly less likely to receive proven life saving procedures (angioplasty, beta blockers, even aspirin upon admission) than patients during the rest of the year.

And it isn’t just the time of the year that can affect the severity, frequency, and outcome of heart attacks, studies show that the time of day plays a major role as well.

 

Earlier this year, in A Bad Way To Start Your Day, we  looked at research that appeared in the BMJ Heart Journal that found that STEMI (ST segment elevation myocardial infarction) were more likely to occur during the dark-to-light transition period (6:00–noon).

 

STEMIs are serious heart attacks that affect a large portion of cardiac muscle and show up on EKGs (ST segment elevation) and produce a spike in cardiac enzymes (indicative of muscle damage).

 

The peak levels of cardiac enzymes released - Creatine kinase (CK) and troponin-I (TnI) – provide a good indication of the amount of coronary muscle damage.

 

By comparing peak enzyme levels in patients with their time of coronary onset, researchers were able to determine what time of day the most severe heart attacks occurred.

 

And the results  showed that heart attacks that began during the dark-to-light transition period (6:00–noon), showed roughly 20% more tissue death, compared with heart attacks with onsets between 6pm and midnight.

 

The current theory as to why this might be is that the body’s circadian rhythm influences the production of cardio-protective proteins called salvage kinases, which are released in greater quantities later in the day.

All of the above I hoping will inspire my readers to exercise a little moderation this holiday season, to remember to take your prescribed medications, and to pay attention to the signs and symptoms of a heart attack.

 

From the CDC’s Heart Attack Information page:

Symptoms of a Heart Attack

The five major symptoms of a heart attack are—

• Pain or discomfort in the jaw, neck, or back.
• Feeling weak, light-headed, or faint.
• Chest pain or discomfort.
• Pain or discomfort in arms or shoulder.
• Shortness of breath.

If you think that you or someone you know is having a heart attack, you should call 9–1–1 immediately.

 

And while you are thinking about gifts for your family and friends this year, one gift you can give them is to take a CPR course – so you can help save their life if their heart should stop due to a heart attack, electrocution, anaphylactic reaction or drowning.

 

Compression-only CPR is now the standard for laypeople, and is easier to do than the old way.  The American Heart Association has produced this short video showing the importance of learning this life saving technique.

 

 

(Click Image to View on YouTube)

 

Taking a class only requires a few hours of your time, and it could end up helping you save the life of someone you love.

 

To find a local CPR course contact your local chapter of the American Red Cross, the American Heart Association, or (usually) your local fire department or EMS can steer you to a class.

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Cold Weather Car Bag

 

 

 

# 5130

 

 

This second week of December has brought an icy blast deep into the southland, with sub-freezing temperatures (and even snow flurries) all the way down to the Gulf coast.

 

This morning’s wind chill map gives you some idea of just how cold it is across the country.   In some places, even in the south, roads are slick and icy.

 

 

Aside from having your car winterized to cope with these extreme temperatures, you should also make sure your auto is equipped with cold weather emergency supplies, in addition to the emergency kit you should be carrying all year round.

 

The CDC recommends you equip your automobile with the following items to deal with cold weather emergencies.

 

Car and Emergency Checklist

Prepare your car with emergency supplies.

Cell phone; portable charger and extra batteries

Shovel

Windshield scraper

Battery-powered radio (and extra batteries)

Flashlight (and extra batteries)

Water

Snack food

Extra hats, coats, mittens

Blankets

Chains or rope

Tire chains

Canned compressed air with sealant (emergency tire repair)

Road salt and sand

Booster cables

Emergency flares

Bright colored flag; help signs

First aid kit

Tool kit

Road maps

Compass

Waterproof matches and a can (to melt snow for water)

Paper towels

 

 

You’ll find more information on dealing with extreme winter weather in the CDC’s pdf file called:

 

 

You don’t have to live in the frozen tundra to risk hypothermia, or other cold weather hazards.

 

Which is why – even though I don’t need the snow chains - every fall I add an extra Jacket, hat, gloves, and blanket to the extended emergency kit in my car . . .  even down here in `sunny’ Florida.

 

Preparing is easy.  Worrying is hard.

 

 

For more information on emergency preparedness you can click this link, to see some of my preparedness articles, or you can visit the following websites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

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Preparedness: How To Chill When It’s Cold Outside

 

 

# 5096

 

 

Although I’m a 2nd generation Floridian, I spent 10 years living in the backwoods of Missouri.   Thankfully, the statute of limitations expired, and in 2005 I was finally able to return to my home state.

 

My back-to-the land decade taught me many things. I learned how to fell trees, how to split and stack cords of wood every summer, and how to maintain and operate a wood furnace.

 

But most of all . . .  I learned  to appreciate the comparatively mild winters in Florida. 

 

For those who live outside of tropical climes, preparing for winter should be a yearly routine.   The hazards that come with cold weather are considerable.

 

Hypothermia, carbon monoxide poisoning, heating-related house fires, falls on icy walkways, cold-stress heart attacks, snow blower mishaps, car accidents due to inclement weather . . .  the list is long.

 

Winter, quite simply, claims a lot of lives each year, although the exact number is subject to considerable debate.    According to the SDR’ Grand Challenges for Disaster Reduction.

 

. . .  two different datasets of weather-related mortality report opposite findings.  One dataset (the National Climatic Data Center’s Storm Data) records more heat-related deaths per year than cold-related deaths, whereas another dataset (the National Center for Health Statistics Compressed Mortality Database) records the opposite, with nearly four times the number of cold-related deaths than heat-related deaths.

 

One of the factors that helps tip the scales towards cold related morbidity and mortality are winter weather influenced vehicular accidents.  Again from the SDR report.

 

Weather information providers and consumers have
not embraced a probabilistic approach to these
forecasting challenges that would help significantly
decrease the nearly 7,000 deaths, 600,000 injuries, and 1.4 million accidents a year that occur due to adverse winter driving conditions, by extending winter weather watch and warning lead times.

 

Something I saw with disturbing regularity as a paramedic was carbon monoxide poisoning.

 

Faulty furnaces, snow blocked car exhaust pipes, attempts to use generators inside the house or garage . . . and the use of CO producing emergency heat sources all contribute to the winter body count.

 

The CDC’s MMWR released a report in 2005 called Unintentional Non--Fire-Related Carbon Monoxide Exposures --- United States, 2001—2003 that stated:

 

During 2001--2003, an estimated 15,200 persons with confirmed or possible non--fire-related CO exposure were treated annually in hospital EDs. In addition, during 2001--2002, an average of 480 persons died annually from non--fire-related CO poisoning. Although males and females were equally likely to visit an ED for CO exposure, males were 2.3 times more likely to die from CO poisoning. Most (64%) of the nonfatal CO exposures occurred in homes. Efforts are needed to educate the public about preventing CO exposure.

 

 

Accordingly, FEMA and the CDC have a winter safety and preparedness websites, filled with useful preparedness information.

 

First from FEMA.

 

Winter Storms and Extreme Cold

Heavy snowfall and extreme cold can immobilize an entire region. Even areas that normally experience mild winters can be hit with a major snowstorm or extreme cold. Winter storms can result in flooding, storm surge, closed highways, blocked roads, downed power lines and hypothermia.

How can I protect myself from winter storms and extreme cold?

• Know your winter storm and extreme cold terms
• What to do before winter storms and extreme cold
• What to do during a winter storm
• What to do after a winter storm
• Learn about floods that can result from winter storm thaws

 

And this from the CDC.

 

Extreme Cold: A Prevention Guide to Promote Your Personal Health and Safety

The Extreme Cold Prevention Guide combines all of the key content of the CDC Winter Weather website into one downloadable, printable file. Printing this PDF file ensures that you will have important winter weather health and safety information available even when you're without power or Internet service.

 

Although the PDF is not Section 508-compliant, all content in the PDF is available in a 508-compliant HTML version on this site. Links to those HTML versions are provided below.

Download the Prevention Guide

• Extreme Cold Prevention Guide (3.45 MB/15 pages)

List of Webpages Included in the Prevention Guide:

• About Winter Weather
• Take Steps
  • Before a Storm
    • Prepare Your Home for Winter Weather
    • Prepare Your Car for Winter Weather
    • Winter Weather Checklists
  • During a Storm
    • Indoor Safety
    • Outdoor Safety
• Stay Safe and Healthy
  • Hypothermia
  • Frostbite

 

 

It doesn’t take an earthquake or a hurricane to quickly plunge you and your family into a survival situation. 

 

Every day threats . . .  like severe thunderstorms, summer heat waves, and wintery blasts of weather . . .  can all create hazards that can threaten your health and safety.

With winter closing in, today would be a good day to review and update your emergency plans.

Some resources to get you started on the road to `all threats’ preparedness include:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

And a few of my (many) preparedness essays include:

 

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

Inside My Bug Out Bag

Red Cross Unveils `Do More Than Cross Your Fingers’ Campaign

 

You can search this blog for more preparedness information by clicking this link.

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