A West Coast Shake Up Call

Los Angeles Seismograph 7:10 AM EST – Credit ABC TV7

 

# 6780

 

Residents in Southern California and the Baja Peninsula were on the receiving end of a significant seismic shock overnight, as a 6.3 temblor struck 160 miles off the coast at 2:36 am (local time).

 

No tsunami was generated, and no warnings went out from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. Light to moderate shaking (Max CDI=V) was reported in San Diego and Ensenada according to the USGS.

 

There were originally reports of a second 6.1 shock, but that may have been a false reading as it no longer appears on the USGS earthquake feed.

The epicenters of these quakes were well off shore, and not along the famous San Andreas Fault which runs through much of California.

 

The USGS posted this Tectonic Summary.

 

The December 14, 2012 M 6.3 earthquake 250 km southwest of Avalon, California occurred as a result of shallow normal faulting within the oceanic lithosphere of the Pacific plate. This event is located some 400-450 km west-southwest of the plate boundary between the Pacific and North America plates – the San Andreas fault system in southern California – and is not associated with that fault system.

Instead, this earthquake represents intraplate faulting along northeast-southwest trending normal faults within the crust of the Pacific plate, just to the west of California’s continental shelf. The causative fault is not known at this time. At the location of this event, the Pacific plate moves to the northwest with respect to the North America plate at a velocity of approximately 54 mm/yr.

While the broad region surrounding the December 14, 2012 event experiences frequent earthquakes along the San Andreas and associated faults in southern California, the area offshore and within 250 km of this earthquake has not hosted any events greater than M 6 over the past 40 years. The largest nearby earthquake was a M 5.1 event 200 km to the northeast in June of 2004, 80 km west of the border between the US and Baja California. A M 3.3 earthquake struck approximately 35 km to the northeast in April 1981, representing the closest event in the USGS earthquake catalog.

 

While this morning’s wake up calls are unlikely to have caused any significant damage, they are a reminder that much of California (along with much of the world) is seismically active.

 

In 2010 (see Revised Risk Of `The Big One’ Along San Andreas Fault) scientists using better tools and techniques, determined that big earthquakes occur far more frequently along the San Andreas fault than was previously believed.

 

Major quakes have occurred – on average – every 88 years along the southern section of this fault line, or three times more frequently than prior estimates.

 

Which makes southern California long overdue for `the big one’.

 

Shakeout.org, which promotes yearly earthquake drills and education around the country, has been a leader in earthquake preparedness in California. 

 

And the county of Los Angeles – recognizing the many natural disaster threats that face their residents – has produced an excellent L. A. County Emergency Survival Guide.

Well worth downloading, and using, no matter where you live.

 

To become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with these types of disasters, I would invite you visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

And finally, some of my own preparedness articles include:

 

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

The Gift of Preparedness 2012

»» Read More

LA: A Not So Gentle Reminder

ABC LA Quake Cam 13:20 EST  8/8/12

# 6480

 

On the heels of yesterday’s 4.4 magnitude temblor centered in Yorba Linda, California we’ve two more moderately-sized jolts this morning in roughly the same area, coming in first - at 4.5 magnitude – quickly followed by another at 3.4 magnitude.

There no reports as yet of damage or injuries, and at these magnitudes, little is expected.  But these temblors serve as a not-so-gentle reminder that Los Angeles is at risk of much stronger quakes.

 

 

With National Preparedness Month less than 3 weeks away, this seems an opportune time to remind folks that seismic risks extend far beyond California. While large earthquakes in the eastern half of the country are comparatively rare, they do happen.

 

As you can see by the map below, most of the United States is seismically active – with Alaska, Hawaii, the west coast, and the Midwest seeing the most – and strongest, quakes.

USGS map

 

Last year, in Estimating The Economic Impact Of A San Andreas Quake, we looked at a report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that endeavored to gauge the crippling impact that a highly feasible (and long overdue) 7.8 magnitude Southern California earthquake would have on jobs and local businesses.

 

Download PDF file

A quake of this magnitude, they estimate, could affect  430,000 businesses and 4.5 million workers and deliver a devastating – and prolonged – blow to the local economy.

 

While huge death tolls are considered unlikely in this scenario, the untimely demise of thousands of unprepared businesses is all but assured.

 

This latest seismic activity makes this a pretty good time to remind my readers about the study from 2010 (see Revised Risk Of `The Big One’ Along San Andreas Fault) that suggests that Southern California may be more overdue for another major quake than previously thought.

 

Since we can’t prevent earthquakes, or predict them, the only recourse is to prepare for them . . .  as individuals, businesses, and communities.

 

 

For a comprehensive guide on how you can prepare for `the big one’ (even if you live someplace other than Los Angeles), I would recommend you download, read, and implement the advice provided by the The L. A. County Emergency Survival Guide.

 

The Great California Shakeout website invites you to participate once again in this year’s state-wide earthquake drill on October 18th at 10:18 a.m. For regions outside of California, you can check here for Shakeout Drills in your area.

 

And lastly, to become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with these types of disasters: I would invite you visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

»» Read More

Estimating The Economic Impact Of A San Andreas Quake

 

 

# 5643

 

Japan, a little more than 100 days after their massive 9.0 earthquake and Tsunami, finds itself in recession with hundreds of thousands of people either displaced from their homes or out of work, and much of their manufacturing base in disarray.

 

The damage from these types of disasters continue long after the shaking stops.

 

Over the past 18 months we’ve seen major earthquakes along the Pacific rim ranging from Chile, to New Zealand, to Japan. Spared, thus far, have been the Pacific coasts of North America.

 

But California, Washington, Oregon, British Columbia, and Alaska all have significant seismic risks. 

 

Accordingly, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report yesterday that estimated the crippling impact a highly feasible (and long overdue) 7.8 magnitude Southern California earthquake would have on jobs and local businesses.

 

Download PDF file

 

 

A quake of this magnitude, they estimate, could affect  430,000 businesses and 4.5 million workers and deliver a devastating – and prolonged – blow to the local economy.

 

While huge death tolls are considered unlikely in this scenario, the untimely demise of thousands of unprepared businesses is all but assured.

 

As the following story in the Los Angeles Times points out, it is imperative that local businesses prepare now for an inevitable quake.

 

Else they risk not only their own economic future, but the futures of their employees and of the local economy.

 

Southland businesses urged to get ready for 'The Big One' -- a 7.8 earthquake

June 21, 2011 |  3:03 pm

 

 

Yesterday’s announcement makes this a pretty good time to remind my readers about the study last year (see Revised Risk Of `The Big One’ Along San Andreas Fault) that suggests that Southern California may be more overdue for another major quake than previously thought.

 

For more on how you can prepare for `the big one’ (even if you live someplace other than Los Angeles), I would recommend you download, read, and implement the advice provided by the The L. A. County Emergency Survival Guide.

 

 

And finally, from  the USGS Great Southern California Shakeout website,  we’ve this 4 and 1/2 minute video called Preparedness Now (Streaming | Video) that  “depicts the realistic outcome of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas fault in Southern California.”

 

 

To become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with these types of disasters: visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

»» Read More

The Great California Shakeout

 

 

 

 

# 4993

 

On Thursday morning, October 21st at 10:21 am (local time) millions of Californians will participate in a statewide earthquake drill called The Great California Shakeout.

 

 

The shakeout.org website asks  Californians to register, and to take part in this annual disaster drill.  You’ll find plenty of suggestions on how to participate – at home, at work, or at school – on this site.

 

A number of radio & TV stations across the state will play audio and/or video earthquake simulations at precisely 10:30am to add authenticity to the drill.

 

You can also download these presentations from Youtube and from the Shakeout.org website to play at 10:21 in your home, to help the drill along.

 

 

As you may recall, a couple of months ago I mentioned this upcoming drill in Revised Risk Of `The Big One’ Along San Andreas Fault.

 

The main thrust of that blog, however, was on concerns that big earthquakes may happen more frequently in California than previously believed. 

 

Instead of occurring every 250 years, they have happened – on average – every 88 years.

 

So California is `overdue’ for a big quake, and that makes this drill, and public preparedness, all the more important.

 

For more on earthquake and general disaster preparedness, you might wish to look at these essays as well.

 

 

The L. A. County Emergency Survival Guide

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

FEMA Asks: Are You Earthquake Prepared?

Inside My Bug Out Bag

Red Cross Unveils `Do More Than Cross Your Fingers’ Campaign

 

 

Not to be left out, residents in the Central United States are being asked to participate in the first Central US Shakeout next April (which is National Earthquake Month).

 

 

For more on Earthquake and general disaster preparedness, you might want to revisit a blog of mine from earlier this summer.

 

Disaster Preparedness Videos

»» Read More

California Reports 9th Pertussis Fatality of 2010

 

 

# 4911

 

 

The last time I updated the California Whooping Cough epidemic was in late July, and at that time 6 children had already died from this preventable disease. 

 

As of the September 14th report, 3 more babies have died. California is on track to see the worst Pertussis (Whooping Cough) outbreak in 55 years.

 

Pertussis rates going the wrong way 

 

 

As you can see, in the early 1980s Pertussis was practically eliminated – thanks to the introduction of an effective Pertussis vaccine in the 1940s. Before that was available, several thousand children died each year in the United States from Whooping cough.

 

But the incidence of Whooping cough has been creeping back up over the past 30 years (and not just in California), and large regional outbreaks occur every few years.

 

That resurgence is due in part to the reluctance of some parents to get their kids vaccinated, but is also due to a lack of adults and adolescents getting their recommended booster shots.

 

As of 9/14/2010, California reports 4,017 confirmed, probable and suspect cases of pertussis for 2010, making for a state rate of 10.3 cases/100,000.

 

This is the most cases since 1955 when 4,949 cases were reported,and the highest incidence since 1962, when a rate of 10.9 cases/100,000 was reported.

 

Up until now, the worst year in the past 40 was in 2005 when 3,182 cases reported.

 

Nine infant deaths have been reported of which  8 (89%) were Hispanic.

 

Eight of the fatalities were among infants  less than 2 months of age who had not received any doses of the Pertussis vaccine.  The remainder was a 2-month old preemie that had received only one dose of the vaccine just 15 days prior to falling ill.

 

Prevention is through vaccination, but since the vaccine offered is `inactivated’ (contains no live bacteria), it requires repeated doses during childhood and a booster shot as adults.

 

 

The CDC has a simple, 2-page pamphlet on the DTaP vaccine.

 

 

 

Although the numbers are small, in recent years an increasing number of parents are filing “personal belief exemptions”, to avoid vaccinating their children.

 

California, like all states, requires that all students be vaccinated against Whooping Cough before entering school, but parents can ask for their children to be exempted from the program if vaccines run contrary to their religious or personal beliefs.

 

The following information comes from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

 

VACCINE EXEMPTIONS

It is law in all US states that children be properly immunized before attending school.  However, in addition to medical exemptions offered in each state, 48 states allow for religious exemptions and 21^a states allow personal belief exemptions for daycare and school.

 

(Click to view)

Other states, including Idaho, Arkansas, and Texas are reporting outbreaks of Pertussis this year as well.

 

Whether due to activism or apathy, a declining rate of vaccination for preventable diseases like Whooping Cough will almost certainly lead to more cases – and more deaths – in our communities down the road.

 

For another perspective on all this, you might want to read Maryn McKenna’s post on Pertussis from last July.

 

Whooping cough: Back, with a vengeance

»» Read More

Revised Risk Of `The Big One’ Along San Andreas Fault

 

 

# 4825

 

 

For years scientists have believed that big earthquakes occur along California’s San Andreas fault on average every 250 to 450 years. 

 

While conceding that another temblor could strike at any time, with the last big quake just 153 years ago , many residents have taken solace in the belief that another quake wasn’t `due’ for another hundred years.

 

Which of course reminds one of the cautionary tale of the statistician who drowned trying to wade across a river that was – on average – only 3 feet deep.

 

This week scientists, using better tools and techniques, have determined that big earthquakes occur far more frequently along the San Andreas fault than was previously believed.

 

Major quakes have occurred – on average – every 88 years along the southern section of this fault line, or three times more frequently than prior estimates.

 

Which makes southern California long overdue for `the big one’.

 

According to the Los Angeles Times report (below), using carbon dating and LIDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) techniques, scientists have calculated that big quakes occurred sometime around the years 1417, 1462, 1565, 1614, and 1713.

 

As you might imagine, the release of this data has spurred a fair amount of media coverage this weekend, including:

Study shakes up scientists' view of San Andreas earthquake risk – Los Angeles Times

California Overdue for 'the Big One,' Geologists Say – Fox News

L.A. 'Big One' could come sooner than expected: study - AFP

 

The journal Geology has the paper, detailing these findings, and the abstract is available online.

Century-long average time intervals between earthquake ruptures of the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain, California

Sinan O. Akçiz, Lisa Grant Ludwig, J Ramon Arrowsmith and Olaf Zielke

 

 

The `good news’ in this study is that the next big earthquake won’t necessarily be as massive in size or strength as the 1857 quake.  But scientists concede that the San Andreas is capable of producing up to an 8.1 magnitude event.

 

 

Which makes this year’s National Preparedness Month (NPM10), due to kick off in a little over a week, all the more important for those who live in southern California.

 

From the USGS Great Southern California Shakeout website,  we’ve this 4 and 1/2 minute video called Preparedness Now (Streaming | Video) that  “depicts the realistic outcome of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas fault in Southern California.”

 

Visit the Shakeout site (above) for more information on how you can participate in this yearly exercise.

 

For more on earthquake and general disaster preparedness, you might wish to look at these essays as well.

 

The L. A. County Emergency Survival Guide

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

FEMA Asks: Are You Earthquake Prepared?

Inside My Bug Out Bag

Red Cross Unveils `Do More Than Cross Your Fingers’ Campaign

 

And of course, Ready.gov  and FEMA are great resources for earthquake, and general, disaster preparedness information.

»» Read More

California Whooping Cough (Pertussis) Update

# 4751

 

 

Once upon a time, not so very long ago, Whooping Cough infected more than a 160,000 Americans each year, and killed about 5,000 of them.

 

All that began to change in the 1940s when the first whole-cell pertussis vaccine combined with diphtheria and tetanus toxoids (DTP) was introduced.

 

In what was a remarkable success story, by 1976 the number of reported cases reached a record-low of 1,010 cases, a decrease of 99%.

 

But since then, the number of cases has increased ten-fold, and on average 8 to 40 deaths now occur each year.  

 

That resurgence is due in part to the reluctance of some parents to get their kids vaccinated, but is also due to a lack of adults getting their recommended booster shots.  

 

Exactly a month ago I blogged on the growing California Pertussis outbreak (see California: Pertussis Epidemic).  Since then, at least 500 more cases have been detected, putting California on track for having the worst year for Pertussis in half a century.

 

Pertussis, or `Whooping Cough’ is a highly contagious bacterial infection that can cause serious illness and even death.  It is sometimes called the `hundred days cough’, because it can take months to get over.

 

Although it is thought of as a `childhood’ disease, anyone of any age can catch it.

 

Whooping cough outbreaks are cyclical, with outbreaks occurring every 3 to 5 years. California saw its last big outbreak in 2005, with more than 3,000 cases reported.

 

Prevention is through vaccination, but since the vaccine offered is `inactivated’ (contains no live bacteria), it requires repeated doses during childhood and a booster shot as adults. 

 

The CDC has a simple, 2-page pamphlet on the DTaP vaccine.

 

 

This latest appeal comes from the California Department of Public Health.

 

CDPH BROADENS RECOMMENDATIONS FOR VACCINATING AGAINST PERTUSSIS: IMMUNIZATION KEY TO CONTROLLING WHOOPING COUGH 

Date: 7/19/2010

Number: 10-048U

Contact: Al Lundeen, (916) 4407259)

SACRAMENTO

To protect Californians against the current epidemic levels of pertussis (whooping cough) health experts at the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) today broadened recommendations for immunizing against pertussis and reiterated the importance of getting vaccinated.

 

“We are facing what could be the worst year for pertussis that this state has seen in more than 50 years,” said CDPH Chief of the Center for Infectious Disease Dr. Gilberto Chávez, who also is the state’s epidemiologist. “We are urging health providers to broaden their use of the pertussis vaccine and we are urging Californians to take the simple step of getting vaccinated to prevent pertussis.”

 

• In addition to the typical series of childhood pertussis immunizations, CDPH now recommends an adolescent-adult pertussis booster vaccine (Tdap) for:
• anyone 7 years and older who is not fully immunized, including those who are more than 64 years old,
• women of childbearing age, before, during, or immediately after pregnancy, and
• other people who have contact with pregnant women or infants.

“Considering that immunity from pertussis vaccine or disease wears off and that most adults are susceptible to pertussis, now is the time for Californians to get immunized to protect themselves and their families,” said Chávez. “In particular, all family members and caregivers of infants should get the booster vaccine.”

 

<SNIP>

 

Pertussis has reached an epidemic level in California. For the first six months of this year, 1,496 cases of pertussis were reported, a five-fold increase from the same period last year when 258 cases were reported. In addition, approximately 700 possible cases of pertussis are under investigation.

 

Since this alert was released, a 6th child has died from Pertussis in California.  Five out of the six fatalities have been in infants under the age of 3 months – too young to receive the vaccine.

 

Which is why health officials urge that the general community get vaccinated, in order to protect those that cannot be immunized. 

 

And that means adults and children.

 

In recent years more parents are filing “personal belief exemptions” to avoid vaccinating their children.

 

Although California, like all states, requires that all students be vaccinated against Whooping Cough before entering school, parents can ask for their children to be exempted from the program if vaccines run contrary to their religious or personal beliefs.

 

The following information comes from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

VACCINE EXEMPTIONS

It is law in all US states that children be properly immunized before attending school.  However, in addition to medical exemptions offered in each state, 48 states allow for religious exemptions and 21^a states allow personal belief exemptions for daycare and school.

(Click to view)

 

Other states, including Idaho, Arkansas, and Texas are reporting outbreaks of Pertussis this year as well.

 

Again from Johns Hopkins:

 

October 10, 2006

High Rates of Pertussis Found in States with Easy Immunization Exemptions

Saad B. Omer

States that easily permit parents to opt out of vaccinating their children for nonmedical reasons are at increased risk of pertussis (whooping cough), according to a new study from researchers with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the University of Florida and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

States that easily grant exemptions or offer personal belief exemptions have higher nonmedical exemption rates than states that offered only religious exemptions. The study is published in the October 11, 2006, issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association.

(Continue . . .)

 

While (mostly mild to moderate) adverse effects have sometimes been associated with the Pertussis vaccine, their incidence has dropped since the adoption of the acellular or DTaP formulation in 1991.

 

The vaccine is widely regarded as being both safe and effective.  This from the From the Immunization Action Coalition

 

What side effects have been reported with this vaccine?

About 20%-40% of children have some local reaction such as pain, redness, or swelling after the first three doses of DTaP. Such local reactions seem to be more frequent after the fourth and/or fifth doses. A temperature of 101° F or higher is reported in 3%-5% of DTaP recipients. Less common reactions (e.g., persistent crying, higher fever, febrile seizure) are rare and generally occur in fewer than 1 in 10,000 doses.

If a child has a medical reason not to receive the pertussis vaccine, they can and should still be vaccinated against diphtheria and tetanus with DT (pediatric) vaccine.

The most frequently reported side effects following vaccination with Tdap are headache, generalized body aches, and tiredness.

 

Whether due to activism or apathy, a declining rate of vaccination for preventable diseases like Whooping Cough will almost certainly lead to more cases – and more deaths – in our communities down the road.

»» Read More