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Influenza: Predictably Unpredictable

 

 

 

# 5179

 

 


What a difference a few months can make.

 

Back during the summer of 2010, when the H1N1 `swine' flu pandemic was at its lowest ebb, many media outlets, internet pundits, and politicians were bashing the World Health Organization and other health agencies around the world for the `pandemic that wasn’t’, their `scare tactics’, and their `wasteful spending’ on vaccines and antivirals.

 

One such hyperbolic headline from August of 2010 proclaimed:

 

£1.2bn spent to beat swine flu... and just 26 lives saved

Last updated at 9:56 AM on 3rd August 2010

 

The author of this report, in the very first sentence, refers to `the swine flu pandemic that never was’ and tells us of a `study’ that found that all of the antivirals, vaccines, and other pandemic interventions in the UK saved `as few as 26 lives at a cost of up to £46million each’.

 

An unlikely assertion, but terrific fodder - I suppose -  to base a scathing news story on during the dog days of summer. 

 

Now that the much-denigrated pandemic H1N1 virus has returned to the UK with a vengeance, and put hundreds into intensive care, the tone of the reporting from this very same newspaper has changed just a tad:

 

Swine flu epidemic fear as hospital admissions soar by 250 per cent in... Daily Mail 19:14 Sat, 25 Dec 2010

Swine flu: The 24 known victims this winter may be only a fraction... Daily Mail 20:07 Thu, 23 Dec 2010

 

While the above stories all come from the UK’s Daily Mail, I could just as easily have selected offerings from a number of other reputable news publications, cable news channels, or Internet pundits from around the globe.

 

This blowing hot & cold in the media over the flu threat comes about because Influenza is doing exactly what influenza does. 

 

It’s being unpredictable. 

 

It’s not following the the public’s and media’s preconceived notions of how a pandemic virus should act.

 

The flu has frustratingly zigged when many officials and the press have gone on record predicting it would zag.

 

When this happens often enough, we begin to see an inevitable backlash in the press.

 

Hence, over the summer - when the H1N1 virus was all but in remission - we saw a lot of critical stories about the pandemic being `overblown’. 

 

 

Now, somewhat unexpectedly, the UK is seeing unusually heavy flu activity while the rest of the world (with the possible exception of parts of Eastern Europe) is seeing relatively little influenza.

 

Of course, that could easily change over the next few weeks or months.

 

There are now concerns that the epidemic threshold in the UK (200 ILI consults per 100,000 population) may be breached in the next week or so. At last count, there were 460 people in critical care, and 27 `flu-related’ fatalities.

 

In actuality, the number of flu-related deaths is almost certainly far higher.  But, as we’ve discussed before, most flu related fatalities are attributed to other causes; Heart attacks, COPD, pneumonia, etc.

 

At some point in the future, an estimate of the number of deaths will be calculated.  And that number, while no doubt flawed, will be the `best guess’ available.

 

Comparisons are even being made to the devastating 1999-2000 flu season, which is estimated to  have claimed more than 20,000 lives and badly strained the NHS.

 

Will it get that bad?

 

It certainly could, but I’ve been watching flu for too long to be willing to make predictions.

 

Ask me again in about 6 weeks.

 

For now, if you’ve not had your flu shot, it is worth seriously considering.  There are still several months left to the `regular’ influenza season, and flu activity where you live – even if its low right now – could easily pick up later in the season.

 

Because, as the title says: influenza is predictably unpredictable.

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