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The 2010-2011 flu season across much of the northern hemisphere was unremarkable, but there were a few notable exceptions. The UK saw a dramatic resurgence of the 2009 H1N1 virus in December of 2010, stressing hospital ICUs across Britain.
According to the HPA’s figures . . . with the exception of the swine flu pandemic of 2009 . . . last year’s flu epidemic in Great Britain was the worst in nearly a decade.
These, and many other flu graphics, are available from HPA Weekly National Influenza Graphs (PDF, 687 KB).
North America in contrast, which was dominated by the H3N2 virus, saw a relatively mild flu epidemic last year. Despite that, flu claimed thousands of American lives last year.
Giving further evidence that influenza is notoriously unpredictable. Even during the same year, the strains and severity can vary widely across the globe.
Still, this time of year many scientists look towards the slowly waning flu season south of the equator for clues as to how the northern hemisphere will fare this year.
As you might expect, the picture is mixed. The following graphic comes from the World Health Organization’s latest influenza surveillance report.
Influenza activity in South Africa and much of South America peaked early in their season and is on the decline (influenza B, however, is still circulating in parts of Africa at significant levels).
Australia and New Zealand are reporting continued, and relatively heavy, influenza activity.
The following graph comes from the latest Australian Influenza Surveillance report, and the pattern is similar to the one we saw in the first graphic from the HPA.
Influenza activity this year (with the exception of the 2009 pandemic) is the highest they’ve recorded in recent years. According to this report, so far:
. . . in 2011, 14,222 (71%) cases were reported as influenza A (35% influenza A (untyped), 31%
pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and 5% A/H3N2) and 5,620 (28%) were influenza B.
All of which serves as prelude to a report today in the UK Express Newspaper, featuring interviews with several noted virologists including John Oxford - Scientific Director of Retroscreen Virology Ltd. and a Professor of Virology at St Bartholomew’s and the Royal London Hospital.
In the UK, when the press wants a quote or opinion on influenza or pandemic issues, you’ll find it often comes from Professor Oxford.
At the start of the influenza pandemic of 2009 Oxford was publicly insisting that the real number of infected from the H1N1 virus in the UK was many times greater than the British government was saying (see A Yank From Oxford).
As it turned out, he was right.
Today we have:
KILLER FLU TO GRIP BRITAIN
Many Britons have little immunity after two years of relatively limited outbreaks
Monday September 26,2011
Hyperbolic headlines aside (a `killer flu’ hits Britain every year. It’s really just a matter of degree), Professor Oxford is quoted as saying:
“No one is sure why our patterns of flu tend to follow what happens in the southern hemisphere during the summer but it does.
Unfortunately in Australia there has been a sharp outbreak with higher than normal numbers of flu strains A and B.
The chances are the same will happen here.”
He qualifies his statement later by saying that they really won’t know how the UK will fare until later in the year.
But even without the elevated flu levels reported in Australia, Oxford is concerned over a resurgence of Influenza B which as been overshadowed the past couple of years by the A/H1N1 strain.
Community immunity to the B strain may be declining, and the virus can cause serious illness, particularly in the very young and very old.
Other scientists interviewed in this article are less willing to predict how the upcoming flu season will evolve, although all admit a heavy flu season is possible.
All of this comes amid controversy over the UK government’s decision not to publicly push their “Catch it. Kill it. Bin it” flu hygiene advertising campaign, or run PSAs encouraging vaccination.
Instead, the NHS is relying on a targeted flu vaccination plan for `at-risk’ populations through their network of GPs.
Another controversy is that only about a third of Health Care Workers (HCWs) in Britain voluntarily accepted the flu vaccine last year.
Professor Lindsey Davies, president of the UK Faculty of Public Health, calls that a “complete dereliction of duty” and warns that it could endanger the lives of `at-risk patients such as babies, the elderly, pregnant women and those with breathing trouble.’
Flu apathy, particularly in the wake of a pandemic that failed to live up to some people’s expectations, runs high in the UK and around the world.
Last year’s flu headlines (see The Pandemic Is Ended (But The Malady Lingers On) are all-but-forgotten, replaced by the latest crisis of the week. It is hard for most people to worry about a flu that may come later this winter when the economy already appears to have pneumonia.
And so we find ourselves on the cusp of another flu season, peering ahead, but without much of a clue as to how it will pan out.
The only certainty is that the flu will arrive – more or less on schedule – and even if it isn’t severe, it will sicken millions, hospitalize hundreds of thousands, and kill tens of thousands around the world.
Influenza can kill you, even in a `light’ flu season.
Reason enough to get a flu vaccine every year, and to practice good flu hygiene (covering coughs, sneezes, washing hands, staying home when sick, etc.) year round.
No, they are not guaranteed protection. But they can give you a decided edge against a serious virus.
For more on influenza, vaccines, and prevention, I would invite you to visit:
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