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Hyperbolic Headlines

 

 

# 4101

 

 

The purveyors of pandemic paranoia are flooding the Internet with scare headlines, speculative (and sometimes nonsensical) stories, and dire predictions about deadly viral mutations `spreading around the world’. 

 

Some of these reports are truly egregious.

 

My favorite, all-encompassing-headline came from The Examiner over the weekend.

 

H1N1 deaths increase as mutations combine - vaccine & antiviral resistant, lung hemorrhaging virus


Scary stuff.  Assuming that it’s true.

 

I’ve received emails this weekend asking what my take is on these mutations, and although I’m not a virologist, I do have an opinion.

 


We all need to slow down, take a deep breath, and wait on the science before we decide it’s time to rush down to the bunkers.

 

Seriously.   

 

The media hysteria generated by stories of `burnt lungs’ coming out of Ukraine earlier this month (with temperature readings of 140 degrees, no less!), virulent hemorrhagic  HA mutations found in Norway, and Tamiflu resistance in the US and Wales is getting out of hand.

 

Of course, everyone knows that all mutations are bad.  That’s why the word has such resonance with the public.   

 

If you aren’t convinced, all you have to do is watch a half dozen 1950’s science fiction movies, and you’ll come away realizing that practically all bad things come from (usually radiation induced) mutations.

 

Giant grasshoppers, tarantulas, sea monsters, and an acting career for John Agar mostly. Admittedly, all horrible things. 

 

The truth is, flu viruses are constantly mutating. 

 

Some of those mutations are actually good for humanity (they make the virus less `fit’, or less virulent, or less transmissible) and some of those mutations can be bad for humanity for exactly the opposite reasons.

 

But most mutations go nowhere.  They prove less than biologically `fit’, and fail to thrive.

 


While it is possible that the mutations being seen in Norway (and other countries) could become a serious threat over time, right now there is more hype than science surrounding these changes.

 

Reports that the mutation is `spreading globally’ are speculative at best.  These mutations could simply be occurring spontaneously in infected individuals. The transmissibility of this mutation has not yet been established.   

 

Maybe in time, that evidence will come. 

 


But even if this strain is transmissible, and can compete with the other H1N1 strains, it still isn’t clear whether this mutation is any more virulent than the other strains of H1N1. 

 

Sure, it’s been found in several fatal cases.  But we tend to look at fatal cases.  Until we know how many mild - or even asymptomatic cases - have been spawned by this mutation, we really don’t know whether it increases virulence or not.

 


The `other’ big story are reports of a `low reactor’ mutation; one that has changed antigenically enough to evade the current vaccine, have also appeared this weekend. 

 


This has always been a concern of scientists, that over time the pandemic virus could mutate away from the vaccine.  After all, that happens with regularity with seasonal flu strains.   There is no reason to believe it won’t happen with this virus.


But once again, speculation is running roughshod over science.  

 

If a `low reactor’ mutation has appeared,  or even multiple instances of it, that doesn’t mean the vaccine is automatically useless or that humanity is doomed.  A new mutation must compete with existing flu strains, and start to crowd them out, in order to become a public health concern.

 

And right now, I’ve seen no evidence of that.  Maybe in time, that will happen.

 

I don’t make pandemic predictions.  There are easier ways for me to publicly make a fool of myself (believe me, I know).

 

None of this is to suggest that I don’t believe that a serious change could occur in the virus, or even that I’m arguing that one hasn’t happened.  

 

I don’t know.  And neither, I suspect, does anyone else.

 

Until I see something more solid than pseudo-scientific supposition, I don’t intend to lose any sleep over these reports. I will continue to watch them with interest, however.   

 

And if there’s anything to them, we’ll know about it soon enough.  

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