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Two reports from the CDC today on the impact of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We’ll look first at the new estimates of infected, hospitalized, and killed by the virus in the US, followed by the latest FluView report for the week ending February 6th.
CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Influenza Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths in the United States, April 2009 – January 16, 2010
February 12, 2010 1:00 PM ET
April – December 12, 2009 Estimates
April – November 14, 2009 Estimates
April – October 17, 2009 Estimates
Updated Estimates from April 2009 – January 16, 2010
Using the same methodology CDC has again updated the estimates to include the time period from April 2009 through January 16, 2010 on February 12, 2010.
- CDC estimates that between 41 million and 84 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April 2009 and January 16, 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 57 million people infected with 2009 H1N1.
- CDC estimates that between about 183,000 and 378,000 H1N1-related hospitalizations occurred between April 2009 and January 16, 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 257,000 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations.
- CDC estimates that between about 8,330 and 17,160 2009 H1N1-related deaths occurred between April 2009 and January 16, 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 11,690 2009 H1N1-related deaths.
Moving on to this week’s FluView, the picture this week continues to be one of a dramatic respite from the rates of influenza seen several months ago, with levels below what is normally seen this time of year.
P&I (Pneumonia & Influenza) deaths have dropped below the epidemic level after several weeks of exceeding that seasonally adjusted rate, and no state reported widespread flu activity in this most recent reporting period.
2009-2010 Influenza Season Week 5 ending February 6, 2010
All data are preliminary and may change as more reports are received.
Synopsis:
During week 5 (January 31-February 6, 2010), influenza activity remained at approximately the same levels as last week in the U.S.
- 206 (4.8%) specimens tested by U.S. World Health Organization (WHO) and National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) collaborating laboratories and reported to CDC/Influenza Division were positive for influenza.
- All subtyped influenza A viruses reported to CDC were 2009 influenza A (H1N1) viruses.
- The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was below the epidemic threshold.
- Three influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported. Two deaths were associated with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus infection and one was associated with an influenza A virus for which the subtype was undetermined.
- The proportion of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) was 2.1% which is below the national baseline of 2.3%. Three of 10 regions (Regions 4, 7, and 9) reported ILI above region-specific baseline levels.
- No states reported widespread influenza activity, six states reported regional influenza activity, Puerto Rico and 11 states reported local influenza activity, the District of Columbia, Guam, and 28 states reported sporadic influenza activity, four states reported no influenza activity, and the U.S. Virgin Islands and one state did not report.
U.S. Virologic Surveillance:
WHO and NREVSS collaborating laboratories located in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. report to CDC the number of respiratory specimens tested for influenza and the number positive by influenza type and subtype. The results of tests performed during the current week are summarized in the table below.
Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) Mortality Surveillance
During week 5, 7.3% of all deaths reported through the 122-Cities Mortality Reporting System were due to P&I. This percentage was below the epidemic threshold of 7.8% for week 5.
Influenza-Associated Pediatric Mortality
Three influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported to CDC during week 5 (Georgia, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania). Two deaths were associated with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus infection and one was associated with an influenza A virus for which the subtype was undetermined. The deaths reported during week 5 occurred between November 22, 2009 and January 16, 2010.
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