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CDC: Key Flu Indicators

 

 

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While it is too soon to declare the 2009-10 flu season over, we are obviously seeing a respite from the epidemic levels that we saw earlier in the fall.  Whether we get another wave of pandemic flu, or a return of seasonal (including B) strains of influenza, remains to be seen.

 

The one major indicator that increased over the previous week were pediatric influenza deaths, of which there were  seven.   Each of the two previous weeks had  seen 4 deaths reported.

 

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During a `normal’ flu year, it would be extraordinary to see 7 pediatric deaths in a single week.   An average year might see 50 to 75 pediatric influenza-related fatalities.

 

Later today, we will get the full weekly FluView report from the CDC, along with Canada’s FluWatch report.

 

While we could still see another wave, for now, the news is encouraging.

 

 

Key Flu Indicators

January 15, 2010, 11:15 AM

Each week CDC analyzes information about influenza disease activity in the United States and publishes findings of key flu indicators in a report called FluView. During the week of January 3-9, 2010, all key indicators declined compared to the previous week. Below is a summary of the most recent key indicators:

  • Visits to doctors for influenza-like illness (ILI) nationally decreased this week over last week. Visits to doctors for ILI also are examined by region. ILI decreased in all 10 regions of the country, but one region (region 9) continues to report elevated activity.
  • Overall hospitalization rates are declining.
  • The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report decreased over the previous week and remains below what is expected for this time of year. In addition, another seven flu-related pediatric deaths were reported this week: six of these deaths were associated with laboratory confirmed 2009 H1N1 and one death was associated with an influenza A virus for which the subtype was not determined. Since April 2009, CDC has received reports of 300 laboratory-confirmed pediatric deaths: 255 due to 2009 H1N1, 43 pediatric deaths that were laboratory confirmed as influenza, but the flu virus subtype was not determined, and two pediatric deaths that were associated with seasonal influenza viruses. (Laboratory-confirmed deaths are thought to represent an undercount of the actual number. CDC has provided estimates about the number of 2009 H1N1 cases and related hospitalizations and deaths.
  • No states reported widespread influenza activity; a decline of one state from last week.  Nine states continue to report regional influenza activity. They are: Alabama, Georgia, Hawaii, Maine, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, and Virginia.
  • Almost all of the influenza viruses identified so far continue to be 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses. These viruses remain similar to the virus chosen for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine, and remain susceptible to the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir with rare exception.

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