# 5022
With more than a million earthquake displaced individuals scattered across more than 1300 refugee (mostly tent/tarp shelter) centers, relief workers and residents of Haiti have understandably watched the tropics this year with a good deal of apprehension.
Not much shelter from the storm.
Flickr Photo Credit By digital.democracy
(CC) License Some rights reserved
There have been a couple of close calls, and one completely unexpected severe summer thunderstorm back on September 24th that killed several, but the island of Hispaniola has - quite remarkably - been spared during this unusually active tropical season.
All of that could change by the end of this week, however, when an unprecedented late season hurricane is forecast to pass very close to – if not over – the island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
The storm is Hurricane Tomas – already at CATEGORY 2 – and forecast to possibly intensify a bit in the near term.
This morning’s forecast track map from the NHC, showing a late week northerly turn.
The timing of this turn, and the storm’s forward speed around midweek are still a bit `iffy’, and so confidence in the day 4 & day 5 positions are somewhat less than normal.
All of this comes, of course, on top of the Cholera epidemic which has sickened thousands and killed hundreds over the past couple of weeks.
The latest map of communities affected by the Cholera Outbreak (OCHA) 10-29-10.
While it is too early to know for sure if, or how badly, Haiti will be badly affected by this storm -yesterday the nation’s Centre national de météorologie (CNM) issued a second advisory on Tomas, upgrading their alert from YELLOW to ORANGE.
A concern enhanced, no doubt, by Haiti’s long and tragic history with hurricanes. A few more recent examples include:
- In 2004 Tropical Storm Jeanne passed just north of the island and dumped 13 inches of rain, which caused massive flooding and landslides that claimed 3,000 lives.
- Before that, in 1994 Hurricane Gordon killed in excess of 1,100 people, mostly from flooding.
- In 1963 it was a CAT 4 Hurricane Flora that clipped the southwestern tip of Haiti, and killed more than 8,000.
- Before striking the Carolinas in 1954, Hurricane Hazel swept across Haiti killing more than 1,000.
Mountainous terrain, combined with rampant and indiscriminant deforestation over the years, have often produced devastating landslides and floods which greatly exacerbate the losses from these storms.
While the eventual track of Tomas is still very much in doubt, there is very little that authorities can do to protect the hundreds of thousands of people still living in tent and tarp cities should a major storm impact the island.
Even more substantial structures, still standing but weakened by the earthquake, may not be safe.
And even a glancing blow would likely make ongoing attempts to contain the growing cholera epidemic far more complicated.
First an earthquake, then an epidemic, and now . . potentially, anyway . . . a hurricane.
A not-so-gentle reminder that disasters don’t happen in a vacuum. And that one crisis can quickly compound and escalate into another . . . and then another.
Good enough reasons to work towards better preparedness for your family, your neighborhood, and your greater community.
Because it can happen here.
A good place to learn how is Ready.gov.
Other good places to get started include:
FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm
READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/
AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/
Obviously, if you can find a way to help support the relief efforts in Haiti through a donation to one of the NGOs working on the ground there (ie. Red Cross, CARE.ORG, SAVE THE CHILDREN, and others), I’m certain they and the people of Haiti will be grateful for your generosity.
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