# 5217
Invariably, when a new or novel influenza virus makes an appearance on the world stage, the concern is that over time it will mutate to a more formidable viral foe.
Mutating is, after all, what viruses do.
And influenza viruses are particularly adept at acquiring changes – either through small incremental changes (called `drift’), or via a reassortment or swapping of genetic material with another virus, called `shift’.
And as any virologist will tell you, Shift Happens.
Yet, despite the stigma attached to the word `mutation’, viruses can also mutate into a less dangerous strains.
Over the past few days we are seeing public reassurances from some public health agencies that the swine flu virus has not `mutated’ into a more virulent strain.
Last week, scientists from the UK’s HPA, writing in Eurosurveillance (see Eurosurveillance: Analysis Of Fatal H1N1 Cases In The UK) stated that: so far no unique mutations have been associated with severe or fatal cases of influenza A(H1N1)2009, but further comprehensive analysis is required.
That isn’t to say that mutations haven’t shown up. They have, and will no doubt continue to do so.
But so far, none of these changes is viewed by these HPA researchers as particularly alarming, linked to fatal cases, or indicative of a fundamental change in the H1N1 virus.
Today, similar assurances from the Egyptian Ministry of Health, on both H1N1 and H5N1 `bird flu’.
(Note: I realize there may not be universal agreement over the significance of some of the mutations that have been seen to date. Since I’m not a virologist, I’ll have to leave it to others to debate that issue.)
A double hat tip to Twall and Shiloh on FluTrackers for links to the Arabic and English versions of the following report.
No mutation of the avaian flu with swine flu, says health minister
Minister of Health asks citizens to take flu seriously but denies presence of mixed mutation of avian flu with swine flu
Ahram Online, Monday 10 Jan 2011
Egyptian Minister of Health Hatem El-Gabaly denied the presence of any mixed mutation of avian flu with swine flu (H1N1). He did, however, warn citizens against taking the flu threat lightly.
When a novel flu virus like H5N1 co-circulates with a human-adapted influenza like H1N1 or H3N2, the concern is that the two will infect the same host at the same time, swap genetic material, and produce a new hybrid strain with the worst qualities (virulence and transmissibility) of both parent viruses.
We know reassortments like this can happen, as they has happened in the past.
But it obviously doesn’t happen often, or easily, else we’d be hip deep in reassorted flu viruses every year.
Of course, it only takes one good hookup between compatible viruses, in the right host at the right time and in the right place to spark another global flu crisis.
In her keynote speech last night at Duke University, Assistant Surgeon General Dr. Anne Schuchat reminded her audience that had the 2009 novel H1N1 virus been detected just a few weeks sooner (it was already circulating), it could have been incorporated into that year’s seasonal flu shot.
That would have saved billions of dollars over the production of a separate pandemic jab, and would have gotten the vaccine into the arms of millions of people months sooner.
A step that would likely have saved many lives and billions more in health care costs.
Which is why surveillance, analysis, and reporting on any changes to influenza viruses circulating in humans and animals around the world remains a high priority.
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