Watching The Gulf Of Mexico This Weekend

 

 

# 6399

 

 

For a year that has been predicted to have near-normal tropical activity (see NOAA: `Near Normal’ Hurricane Season Predicted), the Atlantic basin has gotten off to a pretty fast start.

 

The month of May saw the formation of two pre-season tropical storms (Alberto & Beryl). While Alberto stayed out to seas, Beryl paid a visit to northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia.  Hurricane (now demoted to a tropical storm) Chris has been meandering across the high latitudes of the Altantic over the past week, affecting only shipping.

 

Now, barely into the third week June, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are watching an area just off the Yucatan peninsula that they give a high chance of becoming the 4th named storm of this very young tropical season.

 

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE AREA.  ENVIRONMENTALCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICALDEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

 

Forecast models at this stage of the game – before a well defined center of circulation forms – are usually pretty vague, and not terribly reliable. As you can see by this morning’s computer runs, everyone from Texas to Florida needs to keep an eye on this system.

 

Credit SWFTMD

 

Intensity models are even more problematic, but there is ample heat energy in the warm gulf waters to feed a respectable tropical storm or even a hurricane.

 

All of which means that residents all along the gulf coast need to be examining their hurricane preparedness plans while they keep their eye on this system.

 

 

Over the last month I’ve run a number of Hurricane preparedness blogs in concert with National Hurricane Preparedness Week.  You may wish to revisit one of the following as you review your own preparations.

 

Prepping For Pets

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Taking Action

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding

Storm Surge Monday

 

For the latest tropical updates, visit the National Hurricane Center website. You can also follow the NHC on twitter at @NHC_Atlantic.

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Not Exactly A Beryl Of Fun

 

 

 

# 6345

 

 

It isn’t even the first of June, the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and already forecasters are watching a second area of disturbed weather with the potential to become a named storm.

 

Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto formed briefly off the South Carolina coast.

 

This morning, forecasters at the NHC are giving an area of disturbed weather a 70% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours. 

 

Should that happen, it would be christened `BERYL’.

 

 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.  WHILE THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW  HOURS... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.  THE LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS
WELL AS CENTRAL CUBA. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.  ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

While off-season tropical storms and depressions are not uncommon, these systems only rarely achieve hurricane status.

 

The last time that happened was in December of 2005, with long-lasting Hurricane Epsilon. Since then, we’ve seen 6 off-season tropical systems form of less than hurricane strength.

 

 

All of this serves as a reminder that storms don’t read calendars, and that it pays to be prepared all year-round.

 

Next week kicks off National Hurricane Preparedness Week, but today isn’t too soon to talk about preparing.  This reminder from today’s FEMA Blog.

 

 

FEMA Urges Preparedness for Hurricanes and Severe Weather

Mobile wireless emergency alerting capabilities will be available nationwide through participating carriers

Release Date: May 24, 2012

FEMA urges individuals and businesses to take action to prepare themselves in advance of severe weather and hurricanes such as taking the pledge to prepare at www.ready.gov/pledge.  This is the first step in making sure  you and your family are ready for an emergency  This includes filling out your family communications plan that you can email to yourself, assembling an emergency kit , keeping important papers and valuables in a safe place, and getting involved.

 

With the start of hurricanes season it is even more important to know your risk, take action, and be an example. While hurricanes often offer some warning that a threat is approaching, severe weather can occur at anytime and in any place, including high winds, inland flooding, severe storms and tornadoes. 

(Continue . . .)

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An Off-Season Reminder

 

 

Photo – GOES Weather Loop 2/5/12

 

# 6122

 

The Atlantic Hurricane season runs from June 1st through the end of November, but over the years we’ve seen a number of off-season tropical weather systems develop – albeit rarely in February or March.

 

Today, NOAA has their eyes on a disturbance off the western tip of Cuba that has a slim possibility of intensifying before it reaches Florida.

 

Early models drag it up and across the peninsula of Florida over the next couple of days, bringing with it some much needed precipitation. 

 

Model Credit – SWFTMD

There appears to be very little chance that this system will amount to much, but history records at least one February Tropical storm.; the famous Groundhog Day storm of 1952.

Photo Credit –Wikipedia

 

Sporting winds of 50 MPH when this system came ashore near Cape Sable, it did little damage, but surprised a lot of folks with its offseason arrival.

 

While not of tropical origin, the far more destructive `Super storm’ of March 1993 brought a 10 foot surge tide out of the Gulf of Mexico, pushed by hurricane force winds that battered the coast for 12 hours.  

 

 

As it raked up the eastern seaboard it dumped record amounts of snow from the Florida Panhandle to New England. Along the way it claimed more than 300 lives and inflicted more than $6 billion dollars in damage.

 

That storm is a vivid memory for me, as it saw me spending 12 very tense and cold hours aboard my 32-foot sailboat, trying to keep her from being damaged or sunk as the winds and tides battered us.

 

A not-so-gentle reminder that disasters can occur with little or no warning, and that severe storms can show up even when the calendar says they shouldn’t.

 

Preparedness is truly a year-round responsibility.

 

For more information on how to prepare for disasters or emergencies, the following sites should be of assistance.

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

A few of my preparedness blogs you might wish to revisit including:

 

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

The Gift Of Preparedness 2011

 

In the meantime, it will be interesting to see if this little-storm-that-could turns into anything more than the answer to some future meteorological trivia question.

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The Tropics Awaken

 

 

# 5752

 

 

 

Although the first two months of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season has seen a fair amount of activity, with the exception of a weak tropical storm (Don) that crossed the Texas coast in late July, the United States has been spared.

 

From mid-August on the tropical threat grows, and so we watch tropical waves as they come off the African coast with particular interest. Every hurricane season 100 or more of these systems move across the Atlantic, and some small percentage of those turn into tropical cyclones.

 

Today, two such systems are moving out of the Cape Verde basin – long known as the birth place for some of the the strongest, and longest lived hurricanes.  Both have a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.

 

The following comes from today’s 8am Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC.

 

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1175 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

Behind this system, and just recently moving off the coast of Africa, we have a 2nd Cape Verde disturbance.

 

 

2. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

The NHC is also watching two other areas for possible development (# 3 & #4 on the map). 

 

Whether any of these systems develop, or ever pose a threat to land, remains to be seen. But for the next 60-90 days the tropics will be at their most active, and so it makes sense to keep a weather eye on the horizon.

 

Photo Credit- NOAA 

 

The National Hurricane Center website should always be your primary source of information, but if you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadydotGov for the latest Emergency information.

 

And if you’ve not completed (or recently reviewed) your emergency plan and preparations, now would  be an excellent time to do so.

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