NLE 2011

 

 

# 5556

 

 

Today, May 16th 2011, is the kickoff for the largest National Level Exercise (NLE) held to date.

 

This year’s scenario revolves around a catastrophic earthquake occurring in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) and will involve eight Central U.S. States: Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee spread across 4 FEMA regions (IV, V, VI, and VII).

 

The map below comes from the USGS document  Earthquake Hazard In The Heart Of The Homeland.

 

 

 

 

This National Level Exercise will test initial incident
response along with disaster recover plans. According to FEMA’s NLE fact sheet, the exercise is designed to validate the following capabilities:

• Communications
• Critical resource logistics and distribution
• Mass care (sheltering, feeding and related services)
• Medical surge
• Citizen evacuation and shelter-in-place
• Emergency public information and warning
• Emergency operations center (EOC) management
• Long term recovery

 

While previous NLE’s have focused on terrorism, this is the first to focus on a natural disaster.  I would expect that we’ll get updates this week on how all of this is progressing on the FEMA BLOG.

 

Ready.gov has an overview of the NLE 2011 exercise, along with a number of resources.

 

National Level Exercise: May 16–20, 2011

The week-long capstone event in the National Level Exercise in which all participating Federal, State, Tribal and Private Sector entities interact to test the eight overarching Exercise Objectives defined during the planning process for NLE 11 at all levels of government (Federal, State and Local).

 

We are continuously monitoring real world events and assessing their impact on the exercise. At this time, several adjustments have been made to the exercise, most notably in the level of play for those regions actively engaged in disaster operations. For more information, please visit our blog.

Learn about the Exercise

• General Overview
• Private Sector Participation
• Private Sector Participant's Guide for NLE 2011 - PDF

Press Materials

• Earthquake Preparedness Tips - PDF
• The National Exercise Program (NEP) At A Glance - PDF
• NLE 2011 Fact Sheet - PDF
• NLE 2011 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) - PDF
• NLE 2011 Private Sector Participation Fact Sheet - PDF
• USGS - Earthquake Hazard in the Heart of the Homeland - PDF
• USGS - Earthquake Hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone Remains a Concern - PDF
• Expected Participants for the Great Central U.S. ShakeOut Tops One Million - PDF
• FEMA Urges Public To Be Prepared On Anniversary Of New Madrid Quake

 

While it is important for government agencies to be prepared to deal with a major natural disaster, they can’t possibly provide for everyone in the disaster area during the opening days of a crisis.  

 

It takes time to gear up, move resources, and set up emergency operations.  Particularly when the infrastructure is badly impacted.

 

Which is why it is imperative that every individual, every family, and every business be prepared to deal with a disaster. Help may not arrive for hours, or even days, after a natural disaster.  

 

In the wake of an earthquake,  hurricane, or similar disaster power may be out for weeks, stores shelves may be bare, and potable water may be a scarce commodity.

 

Emergencies happen every day.  Disasters, admittedly, less often.

 

But in either event, preparedness is key.

 

At a bare minimum, every household should have a disaster plan, a good first aid kit (and the knowledge to use it), and emergency supplies to last a minimum of 72 hours during a disaster.

 

Personally, I’d be uncomfortable with anything less than a week.

 

To become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with these types of disasters: visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

 

FEMA has an earthquake hazard webpage with a lot of resources, including the following preparedness information.

Earthquake Information for Individuals and Families

Below are links to earthquake-related information of use to individuals and families. There are many things that you can do to reduce the chances that you or members of your family will be injured, or that your property will be damaged, by earthquakes. Use the following resources to help make your family, your home, and your community more resistant to the potentially dangerous and damaging effects of earthquakes.

• What to Do During an Earthquake
  Everyone living in or visiting seismically active regions needs to learn—and practice—how to protect themselves in an earthquake. This fundamental seismic safety information can save lives and reduce injuries.
• Earthquake Preparedness at Home
  Learn about what to do at home before, during, and after earthquakes. Topics include how to strengthen your home, secure its contents, and prepare yourself and your family to react safely, take cover, survive on your own, stay in contact, and care for people, pets, and property.
• Earthquake Publications and Tools—Individuals and Families
  Browse and access FEMA publications that provide in-depth guidance on protecting residential structures, their contents, and their occupants from earthquake hazards. All can be downloaded online, and most can be ordered in print or on compact disc.
• Earthquake Contacts
  Find individuals and organizations that you can go to for more information about earthquake risk-reduction activities in your state, in your region, or at FEMA.

 

 

I’ll leave you with a video and a link from a blog I wrote about last month’s Great Central US Shakeout. To learn what to do in an earthquake, watch this 4 minute video from Shakeout.org. 

 

 

http://www.dropcoverholdon.org/

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Referral: White House Blog On Earthquakes

 

 

 

# 5549

 

 

A quick referral today to the first of a 2-part blog written by Tammy Dickinson and David Applegate of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy on the earthquake threat here in the United States.

 

Understanding Earthquakes and Their Impacts: Part I

Posted by Tammy Dickinson and David Applegate on May 10, 2011 at 10:46 AM EDT

Ed. Note: This is the first of a two-part blog focusing on the science and aftermath of earthquakes. Part I focuses on the science of a high-magnitude earthquake and whether one could happen in the United States. Tomorrow, Part II will focus on What We Can Do About It.

Part I:  Could a 9.0 Happen Here?

Four deadly earthquakes in just over a year—Haiti, Chile, New Zealand, and now Japan—have provided sudden reminders of the tectonic forces active beneath our feet. Perhaps more importantly, they serve as reminders that disasters resulting from those earthquakes are not the work of nature alone. Even in the face of such giant forces, societal decisions before and after an earthquake can have a major impact on the amount of damage, lives lost, and other outcomes. So while scientists and engineers share in society’s obligation to help the victims, we have an additional responsibility to learn from these events and share lessons that can be applied to vulnerable communities—not only abroad, but also here in the United States.

(Continue . . .)

 

Given the risks, this year the United States government will conduct a National Level Exercise (NLE 2011) that will help to  prepare and coordinate a multiple-jurisdictional integrated response to a national catastrophic event.

 

NLE 2011, which will be held this month (May), will simulate a catastrophic earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ).

 

FEMA describes the exercise as:

 

NLE 2011 is a White House directed Congressionally-mandated exercise that includes the participation of all appropriate federal department and agency senior officials, their deputies and staff; and key operational elements. NLE 2011 will focus on regional catastrophic response and recovery activities between federal, regional, state, tribal, local and private sector participants.

 

For more on NLE 2010 you can visit FEMA’s Factsheet.

 

National Level Exercise 2011 (NLE 2011)

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NEPEC: New Madrid Earthquake Hazard Review

 

# 5520

 

 

 

 

 

NEPEC (The National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council) was formed more than 30 years ago to provide the director of the USGS with advice and recommendations on earthquake predictions and related scientific research.

 

Last week, in advance of this weeks Great Central U.S. Shakeout and next month’s National Level Exercise (NLE 2011) (see The Great Central U.S. Shakeout), NEPEC issued a 26-page report on their assessment of the hazards presented by the New Madrid and associated fault lines:

 

Report of the Independent Expert Panel on New Madrid Seismic Zone Earthquake Hazards as approved by NEPEC on April 16, 2011.

Cover letter accompanying report from NEPEC Chair Terry Tullis to USGS Director Marcia McNutt.

 

The report is the result of a independent panel of experts, chaired by Professor John Vidale of the University of Washington.  

 

It finds that while many uncertainties exist, the panel believes that the New Madrid Seismic Zone represents a significant hazard for large earthquakes with the potential to cause widespread damage

 

Which falls in line with the thinking by FEMA and many other agencies, who believe that the interior of the country is at risk of a major seismic disaster. 

 

Hence this year’s NLE 2011 scenario of a major Midwest earthquake.

 

Not everyone agrees, however.

 

In recent years there has been much discussion over just how big a threat the New Madrid fault poses in the foreseeable future.

 

In the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America in 2002, titled The Earthquake Potential of the New Madrid Seismic Zone, Martitia P. Tuttle, Eugene S. Schweig, John D. Sims, Robert H. Lafferty, Lorraine W. Wolf and Marion L. Haynes wrote:

 

The fault system responsible for New Madrid seismicity has generated temporally clustered very large earthquakes in A.D. 900 ± 100 years and A.D. 1450 ± 150 years as well as in 1811–1812. Given the uncertainties in dating liquefaction features, the time between the past three New Madrid events may be as short as 200 years and as long as 800 years, with an average of 500 years.

In 2009 Northwestern University geophysicist Seth Stein and Purdue University geophysicist Eric Calais published what many consider to be a controversial paper in the Journal Science that claimed the New Madrid fault zone was “shutting down”, and that it posed little danger.

 

In March of 2009 Purdue University published the following press release:

 

New Madrid fault system may be shutting down

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind.

The New Madrid fault system does not behave as earthquake hazard models assume and may be in the process of shutting down, a new study shows.

 

A team from Purdue and Northwestern universities analyzed the fault motion for eight years using global positioning system measurements and found that it is much less than expected given the 500- to 1,000-year repeat cycle for major earthquakes on that fault. The last large earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone were magnitude 7-7.5 events in 1811 and 1812.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

This most recent NEPEC report, however, calls their conclusions into question.

 

As far as which position is correct?

 

We’ll either have to wait through decades without serious seismic activity on the New Madrid fault line, or endure a violent and destructive Midwest earthquake, before we can know the answer to that question.

 

In the meantime, the best advice I can give when faced with an uncertain future is to plan for the worst, and hope for the best.

 

So if you live in any of the 8 states (Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) that will be participating in this year’s Great Central U.S. Shakeout, I would encourage you to take part.

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The Great Central U.S. Shakeout

 

 

 

 

# 5505

 

 

We are now less than ten days away from  The Great Central U.S. Shakeout, scheduled for 10:15am on April 28th. 

 

 

This will be the first year for this drill in the Midwest, but it will be conducted in the style of The Great California Shakeout which has been been running successfully for a number of years. 

 

You can read more about last year’s California Shakeout  and last January’s  Great Oregon/British Columbia ShakeOut.

 

So far more than 2.4 million individuals, businesses, organizations, and entities have registered to participate in this year’s Shakeout. 

 

To learn how to join in, click on the image below:

 

 

And to learn what to do in an earthquake, watch this 4 minute video from Shakeout.org. 

 

 

This year is the bicentennial of the great New Madrid quake of 1811-12, a series of 4 massive shocks (7.2-8.0 mag.) over a two month period which fortunately occurred at time when that part of the country was sparsely populated.

 

While large earthquakes are rare in this part of the country, they do happen. 

 

And today millions of Americans live in this seismic zone.   A quake approaching anywhere close to those magnitudes today would be catastrophic.

 

The map below comes from the USGS document Earthquake Hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone Remains a Concern.

 

There are historical accounts of major earthquakes
in the New Madrid region during 1811–12. The geologic record of pre-1811 earthquakes also reveals that the New Madrid seismic zone has repeatedly produced sequences of major earthquakes, including several of magnitude 7 to 8, over the past 4,500 years. These prehistoric earthquakes caused severe and widespread ground failures in the New Madrid region, much like those caused by the 1811–12 earthquake sequence. – USGS.

 

 

Given the risks, this year the United States government will conduct a National Level Exercise (NLE 2011) that will help to  prepare and coordinate a multiple-jurisdictional integrated response to a national catastrophic event.

 

NLE 2011, which will be held next month (May), will simulate a catastrophic earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). 

 

FEMA describes the exercise as:

 

NLE 2011 is a White House directed Congressionally-mandated exercise that includes the participation of all appropriate federal department and agency senior officials, their deputies and staff; and key operational elements. NLE 2011 will focus on regional catastrophic response and recovery activities between federal, regional, state, tribal, local and private sector participants.

 

 

For more on NLE 2010 you can visit FEMA’s Factsheet.

 

National Level Exercise 2011 (NLE 2011)

 

 

And for more on this, you can check out FEMA director Graig Fugate’s blog of  April 18, 2011 Less than 2 Weeks to Go to Central U.S. Shakeout – What Will You Do?.

 

 

We live on a violent planet.

 

One wracked by storms, fires, floods, drought, volcanoes, earthquakes and myriad other natural disasters.  

 

One need only look at the super-outbreak of tornadoes last week that damaged or destroyed thousands of structures, injured hundreds of people, and claimed the lives of 45 people as they swept across the Mid-west and into the Carolinas to realize just how violent.

 

Emergencies happen every day.  Disasters, admittedly, less often. 

 

But in either event, preparedness is key.

 

At a bare minimum, every household should have a disaster plan, a good first aid kit (and the knowledge to use it), and emergency supplies to last a minimum of 72 hours during a disaster.

 

To become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with these types of disasters: visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

Having lived nearly a decade on the cusp of the New Madrid fault (just west of Poplar Bluff, actually), and having friends who still reside there, I have a particular interest in this exercise.  

 

I will undoubtedly mention it again before the 28th.

 

If you live in any of the 8 states (Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) that will be participating in this year’s Great Central U.S. Shakeout, I would encourage you to take part.

 

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