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ECDC: Annual Risk Assessment On Seasonal Flu 2011-2012

 

 

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Normally by mid-March the northern hemisphere’s flu season is well past peak, and is in decline.  Not so this year, with flu still continuing to surge (albeit at below average levels in many regions) in the latest reports.

 

Additionally, after two very stable years with the H1N1, H3N2, and Victoria B viruses in circulation, this past winter has seen a growing divergence in the H3N2 and B strains, prompting a change in next year’s vaccine recommendations. 

 

The ECDC has produced a 21-page Risk Assessment for the 2011-2012 flu season, which summarizes this flu season to date.

 

 

ECDC publishes its annual risk assessment on seasonal influenza 2011/2012 in Europe

12 Mar 2012

ECDC

On 12 March 2012 ECDC published its annual risk assessment on seasonal influenza 2011/2012 in Europe. ECDC points out that on this occasion the seasonal influenza epidemics in Europe started unusually late and unlike the last few winters have not followed any particular geographical progression.

 

The annual EU season influenza risk assessment follows a structure that was established in the 2009 pandemic and gives an early description of the epidemics of seasonal influenza in the EU/EEA countries drawing on the experience of the first affected countries. The assessment identifies the special features of the current season, especially areas where public health or clinical actions are justified. It also highlights areas of uncertainty and therefore priorities for further work. The first ECDC seasonal influenza risk assessment was published in January 2011.

 

Virological surveillance data for the season shows that the epidemics have so far been dominated by the A(H3N2) viruses, but recently the proportion of B viruses has increased. The data also shows that some A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are also circulating, although these are far lower in numbers than in the previous two seasons. However, they are over-represented among the people most severely affected that have been hospitalised with a confirmed infection. Antiviral resistance to the neuramindase inhibitors is almost non-existent this season.

 

At this stage, the role that B viruses will play towards the end of the season is uncertain. Other areas of uncertainty are the degree of effectiveness of the seasonal influenza vaccine in a season when there is an imperfect match between the vaccine and the circulating A(H3N2) viruses and the level of premature mortality that can be expected in older people due to the dominance of the virus A(H3N2). It will be difficult to tease apart the effects due to the influenza from those consequences of the cold weather.

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