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From the UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) today we get this warning that half of the world’s supercities (urban areas with 2 million – 15 million inhabitants) are at high risk of seismic activity.
Supercities face high quake risk
Port-au-Prince, Haiti (Photo: UNDP Haiti)
New York – More than half of the world’s supercities, with populations of 2-15 million, are at future risk of being affected by nearby magnitude seven or greater earthquakes, warned Eric Calais, Haiti-based seismologist with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
A significant number of very large cities with high population density such as Tokyo, Mexico City, Port-au-Prince, Istanbul or Kathmandu, many in developing countries with rapidly expanding population, are located near fault zones that have caused major earthquakes in the past – and most likely will again in the future.
“The good news is that we know how to mitigate earthquake risk with proven prevention measures. Any country that faces that risk therefore needs to proactively invest in risk reduction measures before the next event strikes, including Haiti and its Caribbean neighbors,” said Eric Calais during a briefing this week at UN headquarters in New York.
These cities also face escalating social and economic losses due to natural disasters. Within 35 seconds, the 2010 earthquake cost Haiti 100 percent of its GDP, while seven hurricanes between 2004 and 2008 cost the country 25% of its GDP.
“Haiti now has the opportunity to become a champion for disaster-safe reconstruction if there is political will, international support, and coordinated action,” Calais said.
Calais presented studies showing that the fourfold increase in earthquake-related fatalities during the last two centuries is due to population growth, especially in developing countries where urban dwellers live in zones of hyper-concentration with poor urban planning.
Geohazards International, a non-profit organization that for the past 20 years has been dedicated to reducing the loss of life and suffering around the world in communities most vulnerable to earthquakes, has a good deal of information on at-risk cities as well.
The following comes from their Vulnerable Communities page.
Earthquake risk is great and growing for people in cities of developing countries. Since 1900, four of every five deaths caused by earthquakes have occurred in developing countries. In the year 1950, two of every three people living in earthquake-threatened cities lived in developing countries; by 2000, that number had increased to nine of every ten.
Little has been done to reduce the risk that these people confront. Most people living in cities of industrialized nations are aware of their earthquake risk; in developing countries, most people are not. Building codes are common in industrialized nations; in developing countries, they are not. When building codes do exist, they are often not enforced. Experts in earth science and earthquake engineering in developing countries are few in number, ill-equipped, and isolated.
Yet much can be done. Since 1900, industrialized countries have markedly improved their construction practices and emergency response capabilities. As a result, the average number of fatalities per fatal earthquake in those countries has been reduced by a factor of 10. Over the same period of time, the average number of fatalities per fatal earthquake in developing countries has remained unchanged.
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