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ECDC: Rapid Risk Assessment On China’s H5N1 Fatality

 

 

# 6054

 

 

The other day I spotted a headline that proclaimed the Return of Bird Flu: Chinese Man Dies - as if the H5N1 virus had somehow gone away, only to recently return.

 

Of course, those of us who follow these things know the H5N1 virus has never gone away.

 

During  2011 we saw 60 human infections reported (with 33 fatalities) from around the world - of which the mainstream press rarely took  notice.

 

While this recent case is first one reported from China in 18 months, few veteran flu watchers - I suspect - would care to put money on that being an accurate accounting of Chinese cases. 

 

Or for that matter, wager on the 60 reported cases last year representing the full burden of the disease in humans around the globe.

 

Surveillance and reporting simply isn’t that good.

 

Despite no overt signs of involving human-to-human transmission, the recent case involving a bus driver in Shenzhen, China has – in comparison to the others – garnered a good deal of media attention over the past couple of weeks.

 

Today, the ECDC has released a Rapid Risk Assessment on the H5N1 case in China, where they find that the risk to Europe from the H5N1 virus remains low, and unchanged. 

 

 
 

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Rapid risk assessment: Human fatality from highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in Guangdong province, China

Scientific Publication - Jan 2012

ABSTRACT

Following reports of a human fatality due to highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in China’s Guangdong province, the European Commission requested an update to the assessment of risk of human-to-human transmission occurring.

ECDC does not consider that there is any change to the previous assessments that the risk for EU/EEA countries is very low.

 

A few excerpts provide their rationale.

 

 

 

ECDC threat assessment for the EU

 
This case of HPAI A(H5N1) virus infection reported in China does not indicate a change in the risk for human-to-human transmission for the following reasons:


•  It is a single isolated case, not part of a cluster.
•  It occurred in a country where avian influenza is entrenched.
•  No contact with sick patients has been reported.
•  The identified clade suggests transmission from birds.


Conclusions 


This new human case is not unexpected. In countries where avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses are entrenched in wild bird populations and are occasionally transmitted to domestic poultry, sporadic infections and even small clusters will probably continue to occur among humans who have contact with infected poultry or wild birds.


Human-to-human transmission cannot be completely ruled out even in this case but there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission here or elsewhere. 


The recent report of a single human case of a wild-type influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in Shenzhen city, Guandong province, China, does not change the current assessment of the risk to human health in the EU or globally. The risk is considered to be very low in EU/EEA countries. However, vigilance for avian influenza A(H5N1) in domestic poultry and wild birds and other animal influenza in Europe and elsewhere remains important.

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