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UK: Swine Flu Deaths On The Rise

 

 

 

# 5150

 

 

 

This morning we’ve a series of media reports out of the UK indicating that the number of influenza ICU admissions and flu-related deaths in that country is rising rapidly.  

 

As I pointed out on Monday (see The Pandemic Is Ended (But The Malady Lingers On)), the H1N1 virus appears to be essentially unchanged from last year, and so it isn’t entirely unexpected that once again it would disproportionately affect those under the age of 65.


Added to this year’s influenza mix, are also Influenza B and the new Perth H3N2 strain of flu, although it isn’t clear how much of a contribution either of these strains are making to the UK’s current flu woes.

 

Essentially, the declaration that the pandemic was last August over wasn’t ever meant to serve as an `all clear’ signal.  Just an indication that – with increased community immunity - the virus was expected to spread more like a seasonal flu this season.

 

And that proclamation was issued with the caveat that the novel H1N1 virus could still acquire genetic changes that could affect its virulence and transmissibility down the road.

 

But for many people, the declared end of the pandemic was taken as reason enough to forget about the flu, and to skip this fall’s flu vaccine.

 

Now, after an particularly cold and inclement fall, Britons are suddenly faced with a surge of influenza, and those at special risk are being told to get the vaccine. 

 

The number of deaths and ICU admissions being reported in various media accounts vary, with anywhere from 12 to 20 fatalities cited and more than 100 in intensive care. 

 

A round up of recent media reports, after which I’ll return with a bit more.

 

GPC blames low flu vaccine uptake on Government marketing cutbacks - and warns of looming 'crisis' – PULSE

Swine flu deaths in the capital bring total to 12 London Evening Standard

Doctors Encourage Patients To Get Their Flu Vaccination To Reduce Risk... Medical News Today

Health warning after deaths The NorthWest Evening Mail

 

 

While making any predictions about influenza is a fool’s game, the sudden rise in serious flu cases in the UK could portend a similar increase in Europe, North America, and the rest of the world over the next few months or even next fall.  

 

As we’ve discussed before, pandemics viruses are notoriously unpredictable.

 

image

NEJM 2009

 

The 1957 pandemic, for example, appeared to have run out of steam by the spring the following year - but roared back to life two years later, and then again 3 years after that.

 

Influenza is often full of surprises.

 

Which is why now would be a good time to remind you that It isn’t too late to get the flu vaccine this year, and that supplies here in the US remain ample.

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Influenza Activity
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