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UK: On The Cusp Of A Flu Epidemic

 

 

 

# 5190

 

 

While the latest numbers from the HPA haven’t been released yet, British media sources are quoting the Royal College of General Practitioners as stating that influenza cases rose by 50% last week.

 

Assuming those numbers hold true, then the UK remains below the epidemic threshold.

 

But not by much.

 

And among certain age groups, and in some geographic locations, epidemic levels of influenza are probably already being seen (defined as 200 case consults/100K pop.).

 

While the rest of the northern hemisphere lags behind with average (or below average) influenza activity, the UK is being hit hard - and unusually early - with influenza and other winter ailments.

 

With schools back in session after the Christmas Holiday (generally Dec 20th-Jan 3rd) early next week, concerns are that influenza rates may rise even further, meeting or perhaps even exceeding the rates seen in the 1999-2000 flu epidemic.

 

Since all flu viruses aren’t created equal, comparing epidemics based on total numbers infected doesn’t tell us much about the ultimate severity (and death toll) of an outbreak.

 

Unlike most seasonal flu strains, novel H1N1 tends to infect those under the age of 65, who are (on average) stronger and healthier and less likely to succumb to influenza than the elderly.

 

Although H1N1  can cause serious illness in a small percentage of victims – most people recover without incident.  So it remains unclear how heavy the impact from this year’s influenza outbreak will turn out to be.

 

That said, the `official’ number of cases and deaths attributed to the flu virus are widely assumed to be a badly undercounted, and the demands placed on the NHS over the next several weeks are likely to be heavy.

 

A representative round up of some of this morning’s reportage from the UK media includes:

 

Swine flu fears give NHS 24 its busiest four-day period ever The Scottish Herald

 

Number Of Flu Hospital Patients 'Rises Again' Sky News

 

Warning as NHS prepares for flu rush Shields Gazette

 

Doctors urging caution after flu cases rise South Wales Evening Post

 

 

I’ll try to update this story later today,  when the HPA is expected to release their weekly surveillance numbers.

Related Post:

UK
Influenza Activity

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