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If You’ve Seen One Pandemic . . .

 

 

# 4583

 

 

Yesterday the NEJM published a review of 20 public opinion polls taken during the pandemic outbreak of 2009.   

 

PERSPECTIVE


The Public’s Response to the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic
G.K. SteelFisher and Others

 

While I was otherwise occupied, John Solomon wrote about it in New Report Says Most Americans Approve Of Govt. Flu Pandemic Handling, But Many Say They (& Their Kids) Might Not Get H1N1 Vaccine In Future   and Crof covered it in US: The public's response to H1N1.

 

Robert Roos, News Editor for CIDRAP, has a comprehensive review of the findings in:

Polls traced declining interest in H1N1 vaccine

Robert Roos * News Editor

May 19, 2010 (CIDRAP News) – If the trajectory of public opinion during the H1N1 influenza pandemic is any guide, safety worries and doubts about the severity of the disease threat may cause a good share of the public to shun vaccination the next time a pandemic emerges, according to a review of 10 months' worth of polls.

 

Surveys taken before the H1N1 vaccine became available showed that about half of the population planned to be vaccinated, but that fraction shrank considerably by the time the vaccine became readily available in December, says the report published online today by the New England Journal of Medicine. The main reasons for not wanting the vaccine were safety worries and a belief that it wasn't needed.

 

(Continue . . . )

 

 

Given that excellent coverage of this story has already appeared, I’ll spare you a lengthy rehash.  

 

Suffice to say that by the end of the fall wave of H1N1, interest in the pandemic vaccine (and it's uptake) had fallen, with many people either unconvinced of its necessity or still concerned over its safety.

 

The concern here is that the impressions left by the experience of 2009 may mean that a lot of people may not be quick to accept a pandemic vaccine in the future.

 

It is the same sort of reaction we see in Florida, and along the Gulf and Atlantic Coastline, after every hurricane season.

 

People who emerged unscathed, or who may have ridden out a weaker storm, come away believing that they’ve seen a hurricane . . . and they weren’t particularly impressed.

 

People who evacuated upon the order (or advice) of local officials, only to return and find their house intact, are less likely to evacuate in the future. 

 

But of course, all hurricanes aren’t created equal.   And basing your future expectations on the last storm can be a fatal error.


The same holds true for pandemics.   

 

As epidemiologists like to say, “If you’ve seen one pandemic . . . you’ve seen one pandemic.”

 

Although there were some missteps along the way (particularly in the overpromising of vaccine supplies in October and November) the HHS and the vaccine manufacturers pulled off a considerable coup by delivering a safe and effective vaccine a month sooner than originally anticipated.

Despite the ominous warnings of the anti-vaccine contingent, we have not seen any spike in Guillain-Barre syndrome, or any other serious vaccine related side effects.

 

The pandemic shot has proven to have roughly the same safety profile as the seasonal flu shot, which is excellent.

 

Unfortunately, the unfounded message that the `vaccine is deadlier than the virus’ continues to persist – particularly online – and that raises doubts in many people’s minds.  

 

While everyone is happy that the pandemic of 2009 proved less deadly than first feared, the public complacency that this has engendered may prove to be a substantial obstacle the next time we face an emerging public health threat.

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