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India: A “Shameful” Lack Of Data

 

 

# 4354

 


When you look at the available data; case counts, fatalities, and hospitalizations being reported around the world – well, pandemic H1N1 might look to some to be a bit of a damp squib. 

 

But of course, you’d have to believe that data was accurate to come to that conclusion. 

 

And there is overwhelming evidence that it isn’t.


For proof of that, we need look no further than India’s latest reporting of H1N1 infections and deaths.  

 

 

India Table 0201410

(Mashup of latest Data from India’s Press Information Bureau)

 

Here you’ll find that if you take the reported numbers from 3 of the 4 most populous states (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal) – whose combined population (322 million) exceeds that of the United States – you’ll find a total of 1452 infections and 18 deaths.

 

Compare that to CDC’s estimate of roughly 57 million cases, and more than 11,000 deaths here in the US.

 

I’ll save you doing the math in your head. 

 

That implies an infection rate 1/40,000th that estimated by the CDC in the United States, and a fatality rate 1/627th that estimated in the US (by population).

 

These numbers get reported by governments, agencies, and the press with a straight face, as if they bore some resemblance to the truth.   They are, of course, only `lab confirmed’ numbers. 

 

And as long as you don’t bother to test, those numbers remain deceptively (and conveniently) low.

 

These numbers, and the article below, pertain to India.  But the same situation applies to every country in the world.  

 

India isn’t the exception, they are the rule.

 

And this lack of data extends beyond the raw numbers. It includes genomic sequences and epidemiological information as well.  



This from the Deccan Herald.

 

 

Indian data on swine flu shamefully inadequate: Virologist

Bangalore, Feb 15 (IANS)

Warning that India should brace for more deaths from the swine flu (H1N1) pandemic, a leading virologist has described as ''shameful'' the lack of scientific data on its outbreak in the country.

"Even though India has over 28,000 confirmed cases and 1,152 deaths - which would translate into manifold more - no epidemiological analysis of the Indian outbreak is found in the public domain," says Shahid Jameel of the International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (ICGEB), New Delhi.

 

"We do not know the risk factors for the Indian population, the reasons for a mortality rate that is about three to four times the global average, or any epidemiological details of the terrifying spread in cities like Pune," Jameel wrote in the latest issue of the journal 'Current Science'.

 

There are also no genomic sequences from India uploaded in public databases, making it difficult to analyze the virus circulating in India, he said.

 

"Considering that  ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi) has an entire national institute dedicated to disease epidemiology (National Institute of Epidemiology, Chennai), it is shameful that no epidemiological analysis of the outbreak is available," the scientist who heads the virology group in ICGEB noted with surprise.

 

He said it is imperative that such information be in the public domain for all stakeholders to analyse it and participate in the vaccination strategy.

(Continue . . . )

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