# 3745
Earlier this week I received an email from a friend in the UK (who is a GP) telling me that the number of flu cases he was seeing was on the rise again, particularly in the schools.
Today, the HPA (Health Protection Agency) has released figures that support that observation. Of course, we are now in the realm of estimates and extrapolations, not actual case counts, now that the flu season is upon us.
Also reported are the detection of two likely cases of Oseltamivir resistant viruses, both in immunocompromised patients.
Worldwide, a couple of dozen cases of resistance in this novel virus have been detected, but for now, Tamiflu remains effective for the vast majority of infections.
As far as the severity in the UK is concerned, here is what this week’s report has to say:
SEVERITY
Disease severity continues to be monitored. The disease is generally mild in most people so far, but is proving severe in a small minority of cases.Swine flu hospitalisations in England: 143 patients (currently hospitalised as of 8am on 16 September).
Deaths - the number of deaths related to swine flu in England is 67 (This figure represents the number of deaths in individuals with swine flu but does not represent the number of deaths that can be attributed to swine flu).
Some additional excerpts from today’s report (hat tip Ruby Murray on Flu Wiki) below, follow the links to read the full report.
Weekly pandemic flu media update
17 September 2009
KEY POINTS
The rates of flu-like illness and related activity have started to increase in England. The increase was mainly seen in school age children.
Hospitalisations of people with suspected pandemic flu in England have levelled overall. The majority of cases continue to be mild.
Two samples from UK patients have been shown to have the genetic change associated with oseltamivir resistance. Both were from immunocompromised patients. One has been shown to be resistant, the other is undergoing further tests to confirm resistance. Globally over 10,000 specimens have been tested and 23 have been shown to be resistant to oseltamivir.
Interpretation of data to produce estimates on the number of new cases continues to be subject to a considerable amount of uncertainty. HPA modelling gives an estimate of 5,000 new cases in England last week (range 3,000 to 11,000).
This estimate incorporates data from National Pandemic Flu Service and GP consultations.
Following the move from laboratory testing for confirmation of swine flu to clinical diagnosis of cases, the level of flu in the community is being monitored using a range of surveillance mechanisms, including the RCGP consultation rates, QSurveillance®, and the National Pandemic Flu Service.
A more detailed UK weekly epidemiology update can be accessed at:
www.hpa.org.uk/swineflu/surveillance&epidemiology<SNIP>
Week 37 (ending 13 September) GP consultation rates for flu-like illness in England increased compared to the previous week (8.6 per 100,000 to 12.9 per 100,000). The increase was mainly seen in school age children.
Figure 1: Current estimated weekly RCGP consultation rates of flu-like illness
<SNIP>
The latest weekly flu-like illness rates show that the highest consultation rates were in the 15-24 year age group followed by the 25-44 year age group. Compared to week 36 there has been an increase in all age groups.
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