# 3779
Most of my readers by now know that while I preach individual and community preparedness, and I consider this pandemic to be a legitimate threat, I’m not exactly hyperventilating over the virulence of this H1N1 virus.
Swine flu appears (so far, anyway) to be a high morbidity, low mortality pandemic. It produces a lot of illness, but relatively few deaths. A scenario we’ve discussed here for several months now.
That could change, of course. But for now, 99% of those who are infected recover without incident.
Which means we seem poised to experience a CAT 1 pandemic, at least here in the Developed World.
Countries without access to antivirals, vaccines, and other modern medical resources may see something worse (see A Tale Of Two Pandemics).
Not that a CAT 1 pandemic is anything to trifle with.
It can, and no doubt will, exact some heavy costs over the next few months. Absenteeism could run very high, and we may see some serious economic effects from this pandemic.
The impact, particularly on the Health Care Delivery system, is likely to be significant. And I worry about my friends who are working on the front lines, for the pandemic they must deal with is likely to be different that the one most of the world experiences.
And of course, if you, or someone you care about, is one of the unlucky 1% who see serious complications from this virus, you will think of this pandemic as having been anything but `mild’.
As you might imagine, I get occasional emails and letters – some from readers, and some from friends and relatives – asking me specific questions about how to deal with pandemic issues.
The best I can do is tell people how I would deal with a situation. If they find that approach reasonable, they are free to follow suit.
Anyway, a few from my in-basket I thought you might find of interest.
A couple of weeks ago, talking to a nurse on the phone she mentioned she was going to be flying cross-country in a week. She wondered if she should wear a surgical mask on the plane?
I told her I was flying to Minneapolis that same week to attend the CIDRAP conference, and I didn’t plan on wearing one. I’d probably stuff a surgical mask in my pocket in case I was seated next to a particularly active cougher or sneezer, but doubted I would use it.
As it turned out, I left the mask in my carryon luggage, but never felt the need to wear one. Even though I was seated next to a woman who reeked of cherry cough drops, and who tried to cough surreptitiously into her blanket for the 3 hour flight.
While I still obsessively wash (or sanitize) my hands, and try to avoid coughers and sneezers, I’m more or less resigned to the fact that if I’m susceptible, there’s little chance of avoiding exposure.
This is the flu, and over the next few months it will likely become ubiquitous. If I’m called upon to provide direct care to someone I suspect of having the flu, I would use a mask.
My Dad is 85, a cancer survivor, and has a heart condition. He lives now with my sister who is (mumble-mumble) years older than I. He was worried about the risks of having his great-grandchildren (who are teenagers) visiting during this fall and winter flu season.
As an aside, I have a friend who spent a fortune `child-proofing’ her house, but she complains they still get in . . .
But I digress. . . .
I told him there was no such thing as zero risk (hey, when you’re 85 and have bad coronary arteries, it’s risky buying green bananas or starting to watch a TV mini-series)
If the kids are obviously sick, they should stay away.
But otherwise, treat every opportunity to visit with them as a gift. There’s little point in hanging around at the age of 85 if you shut yourself up out of fear of the virus.
I was recently asked via an email whether I still advocated stockpiling food, medicines, and other supplies for 30 – 60, or even 90 days?
On April 30th of this year, scarcely a week after this virus made the national spotlight, I wrote that it was probably too late to suggest that kind of preparation (See The Stockpiling Dilemma).
I replied that I wholeheartedly believe that every family should strive towards better preparedness.
That means having a personal disaster plan, a good first aid kit, and at least 2-weeks food and water, along with extra prescription medications on hand in case of any crisis. But for the pandemic before us, I see no pressing need for 3 months of supplies.
Quite honestly, I’ve let my 3-4 month stockpile dwindle over the past 5 months down to probably less than 60 days. And I’m more than comfortable with that.
Perhaps the most interesting question came this morning, when I got an email from someone who is buying a house, and just found out her new neighbor has a pot-bellied pig as a pet.
She wanted to know if that posed any special swine flu danger?
I told her, as long as she didn’t sneeze on the pig, it should be fine.
People, I said, were more likely to give the flu to the pig, than the other way around. If the pig acts sick, keep your distance for awhile.
And if YOU are sick, try not to infect the pig.
But otherwise . . . unless theres' a BAR-B-Q in the little guy's immediate future . . I told her to feel free to make friends with him.
There you have it, a few from the mailbag that perhaps can give my readers some feel for how I’m viewing this pandemic.
At least today.
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