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CIDRAP: Exploring the CFR Of H5N1

 

 

 

# 6133

 

Since the H5N1 virus reappeared in 2003, the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) of that strain of avian flu has hovered around 60%. Some countries – like Indonesia & Cambodia are well into the 80% fatal range, while Egypt has somewhat lower CFR of about 35%.

 

The 1918 pandemic, by comparison, is believed to have only killed 2.5% of its victims.

 

Over the years a number of researchers have insisted that the true fatality rate must be far lower, and that limited surveillance systems in countries where the virus is endemic are only picking the `sickest of the sick’, who are most apt to die.

 

While long a bone of contention among flu specialists, recently this has become a part of the larger debate over the implied risks of publishing  dual use’ H5N1 research.

 

Robert Roos of CIDRAP takes on this daunting topic today in a lengthy and important article.

 

 

Undetected H5N1 cases seem few, but questions persist

Robert Roos * News Editor

Feb 9, 2012 (CIDRAP News) – The fatality rate for officially confirmed human cases of H5N1 avian influenza infection is a stunningly high 59% (345 deaths in 584 cases). But the current controversy over publishing data about transmissible H5N1 viruses has revived a debate about whether the virus is as lethal as those numbers say.

 

(Continue . . .)

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