# 5516
Two years this week, novel H1N1 swine flu erupted out of Mexico and in short order spread around the world.
On April 21st of 2009 I was driving from Florida to Missouri and just pulling into Springfield when my good buddy Sharon Sanders of FluTrackers called me to let me know that two unusual cases of Swine Flu had been detected in San Diego.
Seventy-two whirlwind hours later (Apr 24th), I returned from my ill-timed hiatus and began blogging on what would become the first pandemic of the 21st century.
At the time, we knew very little about the virus. Early reports out of Mexico suggested it might be severe, but too little data was available during those early days to make that assessment.
Although the picture would become clearer over time, and Swine flu was proven to be less deadly than initially feared, those first few days illustrate just how thick the `fog of war’ can be during an emerging crisis.
This morning I thought it would be useful to look back to where we were 2 years ago today, and to remember how little we really knew about the crisis that lay ahead.
What follows are some excerpts from the first blog I wrote upon returning from my trip to Missouri.
Afterward, I’ll return with some comments.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Trial Run Or The Real Thing?
# 3028
In my ill-timed absence news stories about a newly emerging `swine’ flu virus have been breaking in rapid succession – particularly over the past 48 hours.
While it is too soon to know just how serious this virus will end up being, there can be no doubt that many public health scientists are watching these developments with concern.
This story is, after all, unfolding much in the way that an outbreak of a novel pandemic virus might be expected to play out.
But that doesn’t mean a pandemic has begun, or that this virus will spark the next pandemic.
So, before everyone heads down to the bunker, it should be noted that there is a lot about what is going on we don’t fully understand yet.
Sure, this outbreak could have `legs’, and this virus could go on to have a major impact . . . . but it could also recede back from whence it came.
Right now, it is impossible to know what will happen.
The Swine Flu outbreak at Ft. Dix in 1976 vanished as mysteriously as it first appeared (see A Case of Deja Flu) , and the short-lived `lethal flu mutation’ (see Sometimes . . . Out Of The Blue) in England and Wales in 1951 died out in a matter of weeks.
SARS, which appeared in 2003, died out more or less of its own accord as well.
We honestly have very little idea why sometimes a virus persists, and sometimes it simply fades away.
And of course, even while this new `swine flu’ rears its ugly head, the H5N1 bird flu virus continues to percolate in places in Indonesia, Egypt, Vietnam and presumably China.
No matter what this virus ends up doing, that threat hasn’t diminished.
So regardless of what happens with this virus, we should be looking at this incident as a valuable learning tool. A reminder that – almost overnight – a new pandemic virus can leap onto the scene.
Good enough reason to review your personal and business pandemic and disaster plans, to make sure you have the emergency supplies you and your family would need to deal with a crisis.
This is also an excellent time to talk to your friends, family, and neighbors about the need to be prepared.
Maybe we get lucky.
Maybe this virus peters out, or never becomes the killer flu that we’ve feared from other viruses.
I hope so.
But if it does fade away, I hope we are wise enough use this as a wakeup call.
To accept it as a not-so-gentle reminder that we are vulnerable to pandemics, and other disasters, and that being prepared is our best defense against whatever comes next.
In the end, novel H1N1 had `legs’, although its severity was far less than it might have been.
The next time, we may not be so lucky.
Too many people have already forgotten the lessons of the pandemic of 2009. They’ve moved on to other concerns, and pandemic preparedness has been – if not forgotten – at least put on the back burner.
It is as if the world has decided that we’ve `had our pandemic’, and that it may be another 40 years before we see another.
And besides . . . “Swine flu wasn’t so bad . . .”
And while that may end up being true, in the span of 20 years -between 1957 and 1977 - we saw several million people die from the H2N2 and H3N2 influenza pandemics, and the surprising (and deadly) return of the H1N1 virus after a 2 decade absence.
Proving that pandemics and emerging viruses don’t run on any predictable schedule.
My hope 2 years ago was that we would be wise enough use that emerging crisis – however it turned out - as a wakeup call.
My fear today is that most of society – unimpressed by the last flu pandemic - has hit the snooze button, and have gone back to sleep.
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