# 5346
While confusing bird flu reports out of Indonesia are not exactly unusual, most of the time ambiguities arise from the use of machine-translation software to convert Indonesian (Bahasan) to something resembling English.
These translations can usually deliver the gist of a story, but are far less reliable when it comes to details. Which is why I often prefer to wait until we can get an English language report from the Jakarta Post, or Antara News before posting.
But today, as you’ll see, even those sources are capable of generating confusion.
A sampling of English language reports follows, along with a bit of discussion about why the virus remains rife in Indonesia.
First, from the Jakarta Post we get a report that alludes to there having been 41 human cases of bird flu since the start of the year.
A remarkable number, unless (as I suspect) they simply omitted the word `suspected’ from the story.
Given the media attention that a cluster of 7 cases in 2006 evoked, pending further information, I’m not quick to assume that all of these cases have been laboratory confirmed.
Here is the lede from the story:
New bird flu cases strike 11 regencies in West Java
Yuli Tri Suwarni, The Jakarta Post, Bandung | Tue, 03/01/2011
New bird flu cases have been detected in 11 of West Java’s 26 cities and regencies. Experts are blaming a lack of public awareness about the importance of cleanliness when handling poultry coupled with the effects of climate change.
Since Jan. 4, 2011, there have been 41 reported avian flu infections in humans in Indonesia, with nearly 33,929 chickens dead from the virus.
From Ida at BFIC - a joint project of Kobe University in Japan and the Institute of Tropical Disease, Airlangga University, Indonesia – we get some excellent analysis of the above story, and a nicely done graphic showing 11 regencies in West Java currently combating bird flu outbreaks.
West Java ::: H5N1 spreads in 11 regencies
Posted by Ida on March 1, 2011
The Jakarta Post is covering current bird flu situation in West Java province. It mentioned about H5N1 spreading in 11 regencies: Bekasi, West Bandung, Purwakarta, Majalengka, Sukabumi, Kuningan, Indramayu, Garut, Depok, Bogor and Sumedang.
Again, unpredictable weather and lack of public awareness are the main causes of disease-spreading. The article also mentioned about 41 reported avian influenza infection in human since January 2011. This is rather vague, is the article talking about “suspect” patients or actually confirmed (and reported) cases?
To date, household chicken farming, which is done with very low biosecurity practice, is common Indonesia. Chickens are raised free-ranged and cage-less, and many news articles mentioned about H5N1-infected chickens dropped dead from the tree branches, where chickens were sleeping on at night.
This is one of the factors of continuous H5N1 outbreak in Indonesia birds.
-adm-
In another English report from West Java, provided this time by Antara News, we learn that vaccine shortages in the Cirebon District leave more than 90% of the domestic poultry unprotected against the H5N1 virus.
But, as you’ll see, the numbers don’t add up.
Bird flu continuing to menace Cirebon district
Tue, March 1 2011 14:44 | 194 Views
Sumber, W Java (ANTARA News) - Cirebon district in West Java remains vulnerable to bird flu infection because of the local government`s limited capability to vaccinate chickens, an official said.
The district`s related authorities need to keep monitoring the threat of bird flu in a sustainable way partly due to the area`s big chicken population, Enjuswatiningsih said.
Speaking to newsmen here Tuesday, Enjuswatiningsih, head of Cirebon district`s agriculture, plantation, livestocks, and forestry office, said the district had 2.2 million ducks and chickens.
However, the related authorities could only vaccinate 20,000 chickens and ducks or just about seven percent of the total population annually, she said.
Three numbers: 2.2 million birds, 20,000 vaccinations, and 7% coverage.
One or more must be wrong.
Vaccinating 7% of 2.2 million birds would require 154,000 doses, not 20,000. And if you could only vaccinate 20,000 birds, you’d have a coverage of less than 1% . . . not 7%.
But mangled math aside, as a practical matter it probably makes little difference whether the district has 1% or 7% vaccine coverage. In either scenario it would leave in excess of 2 million chickens and ducks unvaccinated in Cirebon.
While China, Egypt, Vietnam, and Indonesia all rely heavily on bird flu vaccinations to protect their massive poultry operations, most countries have embraced culling as the preferred method of control.
Vaccines can allow low-grade, asymptomatic infections to go undetected in flocks, and spread to other birds. And over time, the virus can drift enough to evade the vaccines in use.
Dr. C.A. Nidom, whose name has appeared often in this blog, was quoted two years ago in Poultry Indonesia as saying:
Poultry Indonesia Printing Edition, March 2009
(excerpts)
Chairul Anwar Nidom, a virologist with the Tropical Disease Centre at Airlangga University in Surabaya, said a common policy on bird flu was lacking among government agencies, making controlling the disease more difficult.
Nidom criticized the government’s policy of vaccinating poultry rather than culling, believing that it masks the virus, and ultimately contributes to its mutation.
In 2009 the OIE (World Organization For Animal Health) reaffirmed their long-standing position that vaccination of poultry cannot be considered a long-term solution to combating the avian flu virus.
In Avian influenza and vaccination: what is the scientific recommendation?, the OIE reiterates their strong recommendation that humane culling be employed to control avian influenza, and advising that vaccines should only be used as a temporary measure.
But for countries where poultry represents a large part of their food security, and where small holdings and backyard chickens are common, culling can be politically and economically a difficult policy to maintain.
As far as the current situation on the ground in Indonesia is concerned, we’ll simply have to wait for better information.
Stay tuned.
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