#4877
Although the pandemic was declared over last month, India (and to a lesser extent New Zealand and Australia) continue to report elevated levels of influenza.
Given the spotty nature of surveillance, testing and reporting around the world it is likely there are other regional `hotspots’ as well.
All of which means that the `official numbers’ we hear from individual countries, and cumulative totals from the World Health Organization are badly undercounted. A fact that the WHO readily admits.
So I view media reports announcing the latest tally of H1N1 cases - or fatalities – as being indicators of the latest trend (up, down, stable) in cases more than reliable counts.
Which brings us to a report this morning on the NetIndian News Network announcing 128 H1N1 deaths in India in past week: Govt.
The report credits an official statement from the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, and is for the week ending September 5th. The report also mentions 1257 new H1N1 flu cases around the nation.
The latest epidemiological data I can find for India is current only through mid-July of this year, but at that time the number of weekly cases being reported was closer to 300 and the number of deaths each week hovered in the low double digits.
In June of 2010, India reported fewer than 1,000 H1N1 flu cases, and just 60 fatalities.
Which would make 1257 new cases and 128 deaths last week a sizable jump in activity.
As the following graphic indicates, most people with ILI’s (Influenza-Like Illnesses) test negative for H1N1, and testing is only being conducted on patients admitted to hospitals.
Testing and reporting results come mainly from large urban areas since medical care (and influenza testing and surveillance) are spotty in rural areas of India.
All of which makes it incredibly difficult to quantify the number of cases – and fatalities – that actually occurred last week in India (or anyplace else for that matter).
The best that we can say is that the reported number of cases and deaths in India have increased markedly over the past few weeks.
Making India well worth our attention to see how this trend progresses.
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