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New Scientist: Swine Flu Not A Hoax

 


# 4269

 

 

New Scientist is a weekly science magazine that’s been around since the mid-1950s, and covers recent developments in science and technology.   While it isn’t a peer reviewed journal, it is well respected, and is read by both scientists and the general public.

 

Today they offer some analysis of the claims that the Swine Flu pandemic of 2009 was a hoax, trumped up to profit big pharma.

 

Of course using logic and facts - mixed with a dash of prudence – in their arguments probably won’t carry much sway among those who prefer to see a conspiracy behind everything.  

 

But for the rest of us . . .

 

 

 

Analysis: Swine flu is not just a hoax by big pharma

 

As the dreaded autumn wave ends and official deaths remain relatively low, the backlash against the H1N1 pandemic response is in full swing. Claims range from a massive overreaction by health authorities to a conspiracy cooked up by big pharma. But while swine flu may have boosted profits for vaccine manufacturers, the reality of the pandemic is more complicated.

 

First off, the pandemic isn't over. While cases in western Europe and North America have tailed off, the virus is still spreading in eastern Europe, Africa and Asia. Meanwhile, Europe and North America could see cases rise again, if the flu pandemic of 1957-8 is anything to go by.

 

By January 1958, following an initially low death rate, officials assumed the pandemic was over, and vaccine went unused. But then there was a wave of deaths in the US in February, which might otherwise have been avoided (see graph). "They had vaccine but they didn't encourage its use," says Anne Schuchat of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia. To prevent a similar scenario, the CDC recommends continued vaccination. Yet several countries and US states have vaccine gluts, and many European countries are cutting orders and selling or giving vaccine away.

 

Even if we don't see a 1958-style comeback, classifying the pandemic as a damp squib at this point would be premature. Although the World Health Organization's official death toll stands at 13,000 worldwide, this is likely to be an underestimate. "We anticipate that these figures will be much larger," Keiji Fukuda, head of flu at the WHO, told the press last week (PDF). Many cases are not seen by doctors, or are misdiagnosed: the CDC estimates that flu directly causes 2.7 times as many deaths as are officially counted in the US.

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