# 3335
At this point in time, despite the fact that I have several `risk factors’ against me, I’m not overly concerned about my own safety should I catch the H1N1 `swine flu’.
I say that with the full knowledge that this flu, just like any flu, can turn very ugly.
While it is very difficult to quantify – since testing has either been limited or halted in most places – it certainly appears that hundreds of thousands, perhaps even millions, of people have contracted this virus and recovered.
Even when you figure that the number of deaths and hospitalizations are badly undercounted, it still doesn’t appear that this is a particularly virulent virus.
At least, not yet.
Of course, that’s a macro assessment.
If you, or a loved one, are seriously ill due to this virus, then you might not appreciate, or even agree, with this pandemic being called `mild’.
And I understand that. When you look at the micro scale, things change.
In my case, I live next door to my sister, who takes care of our cancer-surviving father (age 85) and her husband (73), who has end-stage COPD.
Quite frankly, all three have significant health problems, and a novel influenza virus – even one that isn’t particularly virulent – could prove deadly to any one of them.
Statistically speaking, should my 85 year old father die from the flu, or my 73 year-old brother-in-law (who has more comorbid conditions than you can count), it wouldn’t even raise an eyebrow.
It would be more or less `expected’, assuming their deaths were even counted as pandemic-related.
However, our family - including kids, grandkids, and great-grandkids – would take it rather badly.
Which is why, for several years now, we’ve had to take extra precautions to protect them against influenza.
Primarily, we’ve asked anyone who has any sign of a cold or flu, not to visit. We are also almost fanatical in our handwashing and use of alcohol hand gels.
So far, we’ve managed to keep the flu away. It will no doubt become a bigger challenge as this pandemic strain spreads.
The truth is, look to practically any family, and you’ll probably find one or two, or even more `higher risk’ members.
The CDC has identified a number of `higher risk’ categories, which include, but are not limited to the following:
- People who are over 65, under age 2, or pregnant
- People with chronic lung problems, such as asthma or emphysema
- People with chronic heart, kidney, liver or blood disorders
- People with neurological disorders that can cause breathing problems
- People with diabetes
- People whose immune systems are weakened due to illness or medication
- People under 18 years who are on long-term aspirin therapy
Not included in this list, but probably also at risk, are those who are who are obese or who are heavy cigarette smokers.
And it should be noted that at least 1/3rd (and possibly more) of those hospitalized have not had any of these pre-existing conditions.
Yes, the majority of people who catch this virus are recovering without incident. And that’s a very good sign.
But that doesn’t tell the whole story.
There are hundreds, perhaps thousands of families, dealing with severely ill loved ones. Some even with deaths. And that toll is only expected to climb.
Governments around the world, quite naturally, want to prevent panic.
They want people to go on with their lives. To go to work every day, attend school, continue to travel, spend money, and pay taxes.
The global economy, which is in bad shape, depends on it.
And so some governments are trying to minimize the pandemic threat, by calling it `no worse than seasonal flu’, or `mild’. They even go so far as to ridicule those who express concern, or who take precautions, by calling it `panic’.
In effect, they are asking individuals and families to `take one for the team’.
And admittedly, from a macro perspective (which governments must adopt), it makes sense.
Governments really can’t afford to have people paralyzed by fear over this virus. They really do need people to go about their lives more-or-less as normal.
If people allow this pandemic to rule their lives, then we could see enormous economic and societal damage as a result. And that could end up killing more people than the virus.
But the danger is, by minimizing the threat, governments will promote complacency.
And that is precisely the wrong message.
We have a `teachable moment’ here; an opportunity to not only educate the public about the perils of pandemic flu, but the significant dangers posed by seasonal flu as well.
Granted, no one should be headed down to the bunker because of this pandemic.
It isn’t that kind of crisis.
Instead, we need to urge people to stay informed, to practice good flu hygiene (now and forever), and urge them to visit sites like pandemicflu.gov and ready.gov to learn how to prepare their families, their communities, and their businesses for a pandemic.
There are risks to this pandemic, and not all of them can be avoided. Their will be losses. We will not come out of this unscathed.
But by staying informed, taking sensible precautions, and not falling prey to complacency, we can minimize the damage.
None of which will happen if we trivialize the threat.
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