# 2212
While the newspaper headline calls this scenario `scary', the truth is, the numbers being used in today's pandemic drill in Florida are in line with Federal Estimates for a severe pandemic.
Roughly a 25% attack rate and a 2% fatality rate.
Other states have elected to prepare for a lesser event, with some states only preparing for a 1957-style event.
The dark orange states shown below are expressly planning for a severe 1918-style scenario. States shown in white are planning for a mild or moderate pandemic.
The pandemic plans for the rest of the states (gold) are ambiguous.
While Florida is planning for a severe pandemic, the failure of the legislature to approve funding for the purchase of antiviral medications last year will likely prove a major impediment to the State's ability to mitigate an outbreak.
According to the latest HHS Antiviral Allocation chart (hat tip to my buddy Scott McPherson), the state has only purchased 3.7% of the amount the Feds had hoped for, or about 66,000 courses.
This graphic appears in the powerpoint presentation by Dorothy Vawter, PhD. entitled Age-Based Rationing in a severe Pandemic. This chart is current as of Sept.2007.
This report from the Miami Herald.
Florida holds 'scary' flu prep test
Posted on Wed, Aug. 06, 2008
BY MARC CAPUTO
mcaputo@MiamiHerald.com
TALLAHASSEE --
More than 100,000 Floridians are dead from avian flu. Up to 16,000 children are now orphans. Mandatory quarantines are in effect for the sick and schools and sporting events are canceled.
What should you do?
State emergency managers asked themselves that very question Wednesday as they conducted a simulated exercise to prepare for such a possibility.
Their conclusions: The state will have to rely on its own stockpiles of flu remedies and drugs, the training of its emergency workers and the help of its 20 million citizens, five million of whom would become infected.
''Ultimately we need to be responsible to ourselves and our fellow man. There's not enough [help] to go around,'' said state Surgeon General Ana Viamonte Ros. Here's what officials recommend to save your family and others, if not yourself:
• Limit travel. Don't go immediately to the hospital or doctor's office, as you might spread infection there or pick it up.
• Stay in bed and drink fluids if you're definitely sick.
• Wash your hands.
• Don't shake hands.
• Cover your mouth when you cough.
• Wear a protective mask, such as the ones recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Simple painters' masks won't cut it.
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