A Slow Motion Strain Wreck
# 1890
Whatever viral strain causes the next pandemic, one thing is almost certain: It will be a prolonged crisis. It won't be over in a week, or a month, or even three.
In fact, it may last for more than a year.
The last great pandemic - the Spanish Flu of 1918-1919 - came in three waves over about a years' time. In a little over 12 months, somewhere between 50 million and 100 million people died. Most of them died in the fall of 1918, during the second wave.
And while the last pandemic wave ended in the Spring of 1919, no one knew then if the pandemic was over. It would take months of waiting and uncertainty before the all-clear could be sounded.
And even when it was over, it wasn't really over.
Over the next ten years there would be smaller outbreaks of influenza, mostly localized, with comparable fatality rates to those seen in 1918, just affecting fewer people. The chart below shows spikes of P&I (Pneumonia and Influenza) deaths in 1922, 1926, and 1929.
(click to enlarge)
REVIEW AND STUDY OF ILLNESS AND MEDICAL CARE WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO LONG-TIME TRENDS
Public Health Monograph No. 48, 1957 (Public Health Service Publication No. 544) by SELWYN D. COLLINS, Ph.D.
Obviously, when we plan for a pandemic, we must plan for the long haul.
The assumption is that the next pandemic will come in waves, as we saw in 1918, and that it may be as severe as the Spanish Flu. Of course, the world is a far different place than it was 90 years ago, and that may affect how things play out.
- We travel more, and at far greater speeds. Traveling from New York to Hong Kong in 1918 would have been only possible by steam ship, and it would have taken weeks to make the voyage. Today, it is a 20 hour flight.
- The world's population has not only tripled, we've seen the advent of the mega-city, and today there are 27 cities around the world with a population of more than 10 million in their metropolitan area. How that will affect the pandemic equation is unknown.
- And today there will be an emphasis on NPI's, Non Pharmaceutical Interventions, particularly during a severe pandemic. School closings, social distancing, a heavy reliance on telecommuting, and the closing of some public venues are almost guaranteed.
It is hoped that these, and other measures, can slow the spread of the virus. While the idea is to lower the impact of a pandemic, it could also prolong it.
The chart above, taken from the PNAS journal article entitled Public Health Interventions and Pandemic Intensity During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic
In 1918 St. Louis closed schools and prohibited public gatherings, while Philadelphia did not. The graph above shows that the 2nd pandemic wave lasted about 6 weeks in Philadelphia, exacting a heavy toll in excess mortality, while in St. Louis the death rate was far lower, but the wave lasted nearly twice as long.
It is a tradeoff, and in the end, it may not greatly affect the number of people who ultimately get sick or die, but by slowing the rate of infection you hopefully lower the impact on society. And that could save lives.
Hospitals and emergency services will have fewer patients to deal with on a daily basis. Hopefully, the daily level of absenteeism can be reduced, and essential services can be maintained.
But this will come at a price. The length of each pandemic wave could be doubled, and that would inflict heavier damage on the economy.
Understandably, there are many businesses that would need to either close, or severely curtail operations, during a pandemic. Any enterprise that depends on public gatherings, such as sporting events, movie theatres, sit-down restaurants, or even shopping malls might find themselves ordered to close by the health department.
There will be other businesses adversely affected by absenteeism. Some will find it impossible to restock due to supply chain interruptions. Others may simply find that their customer base has evaporated during a pandemic.
Other businesses may find that they can remain open, but only if they have worked out ways to protect their employees during a pandemic. OSHA has already put out recommendations for businesses operating during a pandemic.
All of this illustrates the need for every business to have a realistic pandemic plan. Those that don't (and that's the majority of small and medium sized businesses), are likely to flounder early in a crisis. Many will never recover.
While devoting time, energy, and money to creating a realistic pandemic plan may seem a waste of resources today, having one when the next pandemic hits could mean the difference between your business being damaged or being destroyed.
If you don't have a pandemic plan, now is the time to create one. If you do have a pandemic plan, now is the time to review it, and check to see that it is realistic. If not, it's time to go back to the drawing board.
To get you started, try asking yourself, "What will we do when . . . "
- 40% of our staff is absent
- Our Bookkeeper (who does payroll) dies
- Half of our suppliers have shut down
- An obviously sick employee shows up for work
- Sales drop 60% due to the economic turndown
- Our loan payment comes due
You get the idea. There are hundreds of these questions, which vary by the type of business, that must be addressed.
Every business should have a pandemic plan, as should every family. The issues businesses must deal with are not that far removed from the problems families will face during a crisis.
When you find problem areas, you can work to correct them now, before a crisis. Perhaps it means some cross training of employees, so that the loss of one person doesn't shut down your operation. Or maybe it means stockpiling masks, gloves, and hand sanitizers now, while they are still cheap and available.
For a family, questions such as: "How will we pay the bills if one of us are laid off?", or "How will we eat if the grocery stores are unable to restock?", or "How can we go to work, and not bring the virus home to the rest of the family?" and the $64 question: "What will we do if one of us catches the flu?" all need to be addressed.
Recognizing that a pandemic won't be a brief unpleasant interlude, but rather, a `new normal' that may persist for months or years is imperative if you expect your business or your family to survive.
The big multi-national corporations recognize that, and are planning for it.
So should you.
Something to think about while there is still time for you to do something about it.
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