# 1037
I watch Thailand closely because my twin brother lives there, happily ensconced on the beach about two hours south of Bangkok. He's a cruise ship entertainer, and since most of his work is in the Pacific, Thailand makes a great home base for him.
For those interested in an American ex-pat's experiences in Thailand, his website is here.
The Nation, Bangkok's Independent newspaper, is carrying this article about the economic costs of a pandemic, should one strike Thailand. The numbers provided, however, don't make a lot of sense to me.
First the article, then a discussion.
Flu pandemic 'will be costly'
An influenza pandemic could cost Thailand Bt2,417 per head and 65,000 lives, a World Health Organisation study has found.
Published on August 2, 2007
Dr Prasert Thongchareon, a senior WHO medical adviser, said the study model for scenarios from 2008 to 2010 estimated that Thailand's economy could lose between Bt4.7 billion and Bt46 billion in 2008, increasing to between Bt4.8 billion and Bt47.2 billion in 2010.
The average loss would be Bt992 to Bt2,417 per head per year. He said the estimate was based on medicare, drug charges and absence from work.
"We estimate the best case would be 150,000 patients and the worst case around 600,000 for influenza. If do not prepare right now, we can expect the worst," Prasert said.
The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19 claimed 50 million lives.
In 1950, an Asian influenza outbreak killed more than one million people; 11 years later, a Hong Kong outbreak killed another million.
Even though a flu pandemic occurs only two or three times per century, the WHO adviser has also expressed concern about avian influenza causing a human pandemic.
Tawee Chotpitayasunundh, senior medical officer at the Medical Science Department, said the government had approved a budget of Bt9 billion for a pandemic contingency plan and had allocated Bt1.4 billion to build a vaccine plant in Saraburi. The WHO has provided US$2 million (Bt67 million) for the plant.
The plant is expected to be producing flu vaccine in five years. It will produce two million doses of vaccine per year and this amount is considered enough for the Thai population.
"If we import vaccines from Western drug companies, we have to wait more than six months. In the event of a pandemic, no one will sell drugs to us. It might be too late for patients during a pandemic," Tawee said.
Pongphon Sarnsamak
The Nation
The population of Thailand is roughly 64 million people, with about 10 million living in Bangkok alone.
The opening paragraph alludes to the possibility of 65,000 deaths in Thailand from a pandemic. That's roughly 1 out of every 1000 people. The Spanish Flu of 1918 claimed roughly 1 out of 150 lives in the United States, so however that number was arrived at, it anticipates a pandemic considerably milder than 1918.
Later in the article it mentions a range of 150,000 to 600,000 contracting the virus.
Their worst case scenario is a 1% attack rate?
Something is definitely wrong with this article.
Using the conservative figures that the United States Federal government is utilizing for pandemic planning, a 30% attack rate, and a 2.5% fatality rate would produce 20 million influenza victims, and roughly 500,000 deaths in Thailand.
The economic losses, ranging from 4.7 billion Baht to 47 billion Baht ($1 = 30 Baht) also seems low, with an economic cost in US dollars of between 156 million, and 1.56 Billion anticipated.
Of course, one always hopes these minimalistic estimates turn out to be correct. That the next pandemic really is a mild one.
As I say, I'm puzzled by the numbers. Maybe they don't expect anyone to look too closely, to simply accept whatever is printed. Perhaps there was a translation error, or a decimal point got put in the wrong place.
Or maybe they really believe the next pandemic will be a replay of 1957.
A heck of a gamble, if they are wrong.
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