# 699
Along with the story earlier today about the estimated 2-to-7 million deaths from a pandemic (best case), we have another story on the possible financial impact of a `modest' pandemic. This from Bloomberg.
Bird Flu May Lead to $200 Billion in Losses Worldwide (Update1)
By Luzi Ann Javier
April 24 (Bloomberg) -- The global economy may suffer as much as $200 billion in losses with a ``modest'' bird flu and influenza pandemic that lasts more than a year, the World Health Organization said.
``The risk of a pandemic is great and continuing to persist due to the H5N1 virus,'' Jean-Marc Olive, a World Health Organization representative to the Philippines, said in an avian influenza forum in Manila today. ``The evolution of the threat cannot be predicted.''
The world has experienced influenza pandemics almost every 30 to 40 years since 1850, and the next one may lead to 2 million to 7 million deaths and 1 billion cases worldwide, shaving Asia's gross domestic product by 3 percent and the world economy by 0.5 percent, Olive said.
The World Health Organization and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations are working with countries affected by bird flu to prevent a repeat of the Spanish flu that killed as many as 50 million people worldwide in 1918 and 1919. Researchers say Spanish flu is a lot like the H5N1 virus.
The countries recently affected by the H5N1 virus incurred combined economic losses of $8 billion to $12 billion with the culling, Olive said without citing the countries.
The Philippines may incur losses equivalent to 2 percent of the economy because ``there are a lot of people who depend on agriculture for their livelihood,'' Olive said.
Poultry accounted for 12.5 percent of the 887.6 billion peso ($18.6 billion) agriculture output in the Philippines in 2006. Agriculture employs a third of the 33.5 million workers in the country.
``There is a window of opportunity to prepare for rapid response and containment, and for a worse-case scenario,'' Olive said, adding that the culling of the entire poultry population in Hong Kong in 1997 after H5N1 virus spread ``probably averted a pandemic.''
It would appear that this $200 billion dollar hit on the global economy is based on the optimistic 2-to-7 million deaths scenario.
Last year, the World Bank had another take on the costs of a pandemic, also reported by Bloomberg.
Severe Flu Pandemic May Cost World Up to $2 Trillion
By Jason Gale and Kristen Hallam
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- A flu outbreak killing 70 million people worldwide may cause global economic losses of as much as $2 trillion, a World Bank official said.
A slump in tourism, transportation and retail sales, as well as workplace absenteeism and lower productivity, may cause the world economy to shrink by 3.1 percent, said Milan Brahmbhatt, a lead adviser in the East Asia region, citing a study by the Washington-based World Bank. The study predicted a surge in corporate bankruptcies in companies with a high level of debt to equity, such as airlines.
``It goes almost without saying that these broad scenarios are not meant to be forecasts,'' Brahmbhatt told the First International Conference on Avian Influenza in Humans, which started today in Paris.
``They are only exercises to help think through the various channels of impact and possible orders of magnitude.''
Hmmm.
7 million deaths or 70 million? $200 Billion or $2 Trillion?
There is only a 10-fold difference in the estimates.
Of course, if the numbers are anywhere near where some experts have predicted, in the range of 100 million to 200 million deaths, you could be talking real money.
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