Upping the Ante

Granted, if you’ve been reading my blog for any time at all, you know that I recommend storing far more in the way of food, water, and medicine than the Federal government for pandemic preparedness. While more is always better, I view 3 months as minimum.

Since January, the governments www.pandemicflu.org site has been urging all Americans to stockpile, but few are listening. They do not give a minimum amount to store, but indicate that deliveries and services could be out for weeks or months. FEMA, which as just about always spoken of 72 hours on hand, now says 2 weeks, following the Katrina debacle. The Red Cross has often cited 10 days.

In an advisory on the State Department’s website, they mentioned 40 days of supplies. And I’ve seen the same number quoted by a county health department here in Florida.

But obviously, even 40 days of food won’t be enough if a pandemic wave lasts for 120 days.

Well folks, this week state health departments around the country have begun talking about the need for a much larger individual stockpile. And it’s about time.

Yesterday in this release from the Arkansas Health department:

Little Rock (AP) - Arkansas public health officials say it's a good idea to stockpile two months of food, water and medicines in case of an outbreak of pandemic flu or any other emergency that could lead to shortages.

And today, from Vermont:

State and local police, emergency medical services, firefighters, selectmen, trustees, state officials, and health care and hospital officials gathered for the first time in one room to learn what they needed to know in the event of a pandemic. . . . "We need to prepare and have some goods in our homes ... be prepared for six or 12 weeks."

Similar messages have been issued by Colorado, and I expect more to follow.

The old idea of 72 hours or even 2 weeks is quickly being replaced by more reasonable advice.

The math is simple. If a pandemic comes, you will not want to have to go out in public for 3 months or longer if you can avoid it. Supply lines may be down, and supermarket shelves may be empty anyway.

Once efficient H2H transmission of the virus breaks out, we may have but a few short weeks to prepare. Imagine trying to obtain 3 months worth of food and meds along side millions of others who failed to prepare in advance. The shortages will begin almost immediately, long before the virus reaches our shores.

Stocking up for 3 months or longer is not an easy task. And you may be faced with power outages, fuel shortages, and an inability to get prescriptions refilled. It requires planning, and a realistic idea of what you really need.

If you haven’t started, you still have time. How much time, is anybody’s guess. But once the word gets out that a pandemic has begun, it will likely be too late to prepare.

With no vaccine on the horizon, damn little anti-viral meds available, and a high fatality rate, your best protection during a pandemic is to avoid the flu.

While a pandemic may not come this year, or even next year, scientists and public health officials are more worried than they have been in decades. We’ve never been able to watch the birth of a pandemic before, and certainly don’t know all of the signs. But what we do know makes everything we’ve seen to date, ominous.

The warning signs are there. We ignore them at our own peril.

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