Implausible Deniability
In today’s New York Times, an article appeared with this not exactly startling headline and intro.
Human Flu Transfers May Exceed Reports
By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
In the wake of a cluster of avian flu cases that killed seven members of a rural Indonesian family, it appears likely that there have been many more human-to-human infections than the authorities have previously acknowledged.
Readers of this blog will assume this is old news, but this detailed article, the author takes pains to list a large number of suspected Human to Human (H2H) clusters of H5N1. Much of this information was gather by Dr. Henry L. Niman, a perpetual thorn in the side of WHO, and controversial virologist. His theories on viral recombination, while not widely accepted by mainstream scientists, have captured the attention of a growing group of internet flubies.
Dr. Niman’s theories will either be proved or disproved in time. I am not a virologist, and am not qualified to even begin to understand the subject. There are many in the field who believe he could be on to something. But today, Dr. Niman deserves kudos for holding a light up and illuminating a truth that most of us have suspected, and that has been hidden by the World Health Organization.
From the article . . .
Until recently, World Health Organization representatives have said there were only two or three such cases. On May 24 Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, director of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, estimated that there had been "at least three." Then, last Tuesday, Maria Cheng, a W.H.O. spokeswoman, said there were "probably about half a dozen." She added, "I don't think anybody's got a solid number."
And Dr. Angus Nicoll, chief of flu activities at the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, acknowledged that "we are probably underestimating the extent of person-to-person transmission."
. . . . .
Dr. Henry L. Niman, a biochemist in Pittsburgh who has become a hero to many Internet flu watchers and a gadfly to public health authorities, has argued for weeks that there have been 20 to 30 human-to-human infections.
And in some detail, Dr. Niman goes on to prove his case, or at least bring raise serious doubts about the mantra of `no H2H transmission’ that the WHO has spouted for three years. The response from the WHO, and the UN has been swift. They now concede that there may have been many H2H transmissions but that they have been `inefficient’ and therefore, not of great concern. The WHO pandemic level, they say, will remain at 3.
This article comes only a week after the WHO announced they would be revising their pandemic level criteria. When faced with overwhelming evidence that, based on the current criteria, the level should be raised, they have decided to change the criteria.
I have no argument with the WHO as to whether efficient transmission is occurring, for right at this moment, it appears it is not. However, for the past two years the WHO has been sitting on information suggesting that H2H is more common than they have let us to believe. And that is bad public policy.
The WHO is not, as one might believe, simply a global health watchdog agency. It is a highly political organization that answers to 190 member nations in the UN. There are many political and economic reasons why these nations would not like true transparency, and it is likely they have tied the hands of WHO to a large extent.
If a pandemic comes, we will need all the truth and transparancy we can get from those who are charged with tracking, preventing, or managing the crisis.
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