Using supercomputers at the Los Alamos labs in New Mexico, scientists have been modeling how a pandemic would spread across the United States. According to a report released yesterday, a global outbreak of highly contagious bird flu could infect 54 percent of the country’s population and peak in 64 days without an effective vaccine or attempts to reduce its spread.
A less contagious strain could infect 33 percent of the population and peak after 117 days. So much for the theory that a pandemic wave would last only 6 weeks.
Furthermore, they state that attempts to stop a pandemic, through school closings, travel restrictions, quarantines, and social isolation would not work. At best, it would slow down the rate of infection, perhaps giving the government more time to develop and distribute a vaccine.
Another proposal by these scientists is that the vaccine we currently have, which is unlikely to be effective, should be given to school children in the hopes that it would confer some limited immunity, and thus reduce the rate of spread of the disease.
The mere thought that scientists are considering innoculating school children with a vaccine they doubt will work should give us some indication how worried they are about this disease.
By imposing quarantines, social isolation, curtailing travel, and closing public venues, the estimated length of a pandemic wave would be extended beyond the calculations presented above.
One has to ask. Is this really a good thing?
Perhaps, if there was a genuine possibility of an effective vaccine that could be widely distributed within six months of an outbreak (an assumption these scientists are making, by the way). But there is little hope in this regard, despite the happy talk that abounds in the media about vaccine research.
Today, the world has the manufacturing capability to produce 300 million standard flu shots. Most of this vaccine would be produced in places like France and Switzerland. We have only 4 manufacturers left in the United States, down from more than 2 dozen 30 years ago. Most of the available flu vaccine would go to European Union countries, not the United States.
And of course, recent studies have shown that the current vaccine requires a dose 12 time higher than a standard flu shot. Which means, unless we find a way to increase the effectiveness, we are looking at only 25 Million effective flu shots.
Unless some miracle breakthrough occurs, a vaccine for the general public is probably 1 to 2 years away. And that is considered optimistic in some circles.
Based on these projections, a pandemic wave could last 3 or 4 or even 5 months. Maybe longer. Particularly if we tried to slow the spread of the disease.
If that is truly the game plan, someone better tell the Red Cross to begin recommending more than a 10 day stockpile of food and water in every home.
Of course, this could be tied to a plan to reduce national obesity. In which case, I guess it works.
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