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MIT: Forecasting Flu Pandemics

 

 

# 5119

 

The old adage (attributed to George E. P. Box, Professor Emeritus of Statistics at the University of Wisconsin) is that:

 

“All models are wrong, but some models are useful.”

 

We use models to try to mathematically simulate real-life events.  Mathematical and computer models are used to analyze everything from city traffic flow, to your supermarket’s inventory control, to weather forecasting.

 

Models that attempt to simulate scenarios which are based on rare events – those without much historical data – are naturally more difficult to develop.

 

Epidemics and pandemics are fairly rare life-threatening events that require a massive, sometimes global response.

 

Knowing when and where to put resources, and what steps need to be taken in advance to prepare for an outbreak, are things that better models could conceivably tell us.

 

Today, an interesting article from MIT’s Technology Review, which looks at the future of pandemic modeling and prediction.

 

Included are quotes from a number of researchers, including Klaus Stohr, director of influenza vaccine franchises at Novartis - Martin Meltzer, a health economist with the CDC – and Cecile Viboud, an epidemiologist at the National Institutes of Health.

 

Although we are still a long way off from being able to predict when the next pandemic will arrive, or even which virus will be the cause, this is fascinating article and well worth reading in its entirety.

 

 

Forecasting Flu Pandemics Hinges on Insights into the Virus

Scientists have made strides in predicting how influenza outbreaks will spread, but now the pressure is on for a breakthrough way to model how deadly new strains form.

  • Monday, December 6, 2010
  • By Lauren Gravitz

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