UPDATED: 1100hrs 09/28
A Tropical Storm warning has now been issued for South Florida and the Florida Keys.
# 4945
Although an active Atlantic Hurricane season, the US has thankfully been spared most of the impact from the storms so far in 2010.
That may change over the next 30 days or so, as the western and central Caribbean become bigger players during October and November.
October Tropical Climatology.
Right now, the NHC is watching an area south and west of Cuba with an excellent chance to form into a Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA AND GRAND CAYMAN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS LOCATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE ...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Early models (which can change) suggest this system will move north or north-north-eastward across Cuba and into South Florida over the next couple of days.
While unlikely to be a major threat, heavy rains and severe weather are certainly a possibility for southern Florida, and portions of the eastern seaboard over the coming days.
Besides, you don’t have to worry . . . you are already prepared . . . aren’t you?
Track this budding storm (and any other tropical threats) on the NHC website at:
Also, if you are on Twitter, follow @FEMA and @CraigAtFEMA for timely updates and preparedness advice.
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