# 4739
This is the time of year when those of us who live in Florida, or anywhere along the Atlantic or Gulf coast, keep a wary eye on tropical lows.
About a hundred tropical waves come off the African coast each season and begin their westward march across the Atlantic. Most don’t amount to much, bringing a some wind and rain and little more.
A few develop a low level circulation, and become tropical depressions or tropical storms. Fewer still intensify into hurricanes.
But this time of year, a low pressure system can ramp up into a named storm in a matter of hours. So it is always worth keeping a weather eye out.
Given the predictions earlier in the year, it has been a relatively quiet tropical storm season so far. But it is still early. Often, we don’t see named storms until August.
Right now, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is watching an area of low pressure just north of Puerto Rico that has the potential to intensify.
Models (which are often unreliable before a well-defined low level circulation forms) suggest this disturbance will head towards south Florida.
Although right now largely in alignment, models are constantly shifting, and at this early stage, must be taken with a large grain of salt.
Even less certain are intensity forecasts. Right now, the NHC gives this area a 40% chance of development into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.
Residents in South Florida obviously need to be keeping an eye on this system. It may well fizzle, but one should never bank on that.
If you aren’t already prepared for Hurricane season, today is a good day to get cracking. Some essential hurricane resources to get you started include:
http://www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/index.shtm
http://www.ready.gov/america/beinformed/hurricanes.html
You may also wish to revisit my blog entitled Hurricane Resources On The Net for links to storm resources online.
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