UPDATED 10:00 hrs EDT
The NHC has issued a Hurricane WATCH in effect for the Gulf coast of Texas from Baffin Bay south to the Rio Grande. Mexico has issued a hurricane watch extending south from the Rio Grande.
The forecast track has been moved slightly further north with this latest advisory.
# 4680
Tropical Storm Alex, has cleared the Yucatan and is back out over open (and very warm) water. His projected path at this hour is less than certain, with some fairly wide divergence among the computer models.
For now, as of 5am EDT, this is the forecast track.
Pay attention to the entire `cone’, as landfall could occur late this week in either Mexico or south/central Texas.
A few minutes ago Craig Fugate (@CraigatFema), director of FEMA, tweeted:
Alex could become a Hurricane today or Tuesday Residents along the South Texas Coast should monitor the storm's progress. www.hurricanes.gov
Good advice, as Alex stayed remarkably intact as it passed over Yucatan, and regained tropical storm status very quickly once it emerged. Conditions are favorable for intensification, and Alex could potentially become a major hurricane over the next couple of days.
The computer models are inconsistent right now, and so the confidence in this projected track is less than 100%.
A few snippets from this morning’s 5am EDT (4am CDT) NHC discussion include:
...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACKS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS.
FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER THAT...THE GFS...GFS-PARALLEL... CMC...HWRF...AND GFDL MODEL KEEP ALEX ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE LOWER OR CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. IN CONTRAST ...THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE ALEX WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
GIVEN THAT ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY LARGE HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS ... GREATER WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...
Hurricane warnings will go up about 48 hours before the storm is expected, but this isn’t too soon for Gulf Coast residents from Mexico to Texas to be reviewing their hurricane plans and getting ready.
Some essential hurricane resources to get you started include:
http://www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/index.shtm
http://www.ready.gov/america/beinformed/hurricanes.html
You may wish to revisit my blog entitled Hurricane Resources On The Net for links to storm resources online.
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