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The Crossroads Of The Atlantic Storm Season

 

 

# 4590

 

 

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Today is the first day of 2010’s National Hurricane Preparedness Week, with the emphasis on hurricane basics and history of these often devastating storms.

 

Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is cyclical, and as a boy growing up in Florida I caught the tail end of the last upswing in tropical activity.

 

We’ve a very neat tool from the NOAA Coastal Services Center that allows you to input your zip code, storm types, year ranges, and distances to produce storm tracks that have affected your area.

 

http://csc-s-maps-q.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

 

Here are the storm tracks of the hurricanes that crossed Florida during my youth, in the years between 1954-1972.

 

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As you can imagine, these made quite an impression on me growing up.

 

Then we went into a 20+ year period where relatively few storms threatened Florida.  Here are the storms that came close between 1973 and 1994.

 

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Quite a difference.   

 

And during this period of quiescence, millions of people moved to Florida, many of whom have built on vulnerable barrier islands and along the coast. 

 

Most have no idea what a `real’ hurricane would be like.

 

But now we’ve returned to a heightened level of Atlantic and Gulf hurricane activity, and here are the storms that hit Florida between 1995 and 2008.

 

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No one knows what 2010 will bring, as there can be a lot of variability between years even in an up-cycle.  But forecasters warn us to expect an active season.

 

SST’s (Sea Surface Temperatures) are elevated across much of the Atlantic and the Gulf, and a weakening El Nino in the Pacific both point to increased storm activity. Where those storms go is harder to predict.

 

Of course, it isn’t just Florida or the Gulf States at risk.  


There have been cycles within cycles, years where storms have tended to track north along the eastern seaboard instead of south and into the Gulf of Mexico.  

 


New York City, and much of New England, is considered `overdue’ for a major hurricane. 

 

Here is a final look at hurricanes that came within 100 miles of Boston, MA over the past 80 years.

 

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Ample evidence that Hurricanes aren’t just a Florida problem. 

 

I hope everyone will take the time this week to check their hurricane supplies, go over their emergency plans, and decide now what they will do if a storm threatens. 

 

Once a storm appears to be targeting your area, you may only have a few hours to prepare or evacuate.

Some essential hurricane resources to get you started include:

 

http://www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/index.shtm

http://www.ready.gov/america/beinformed/hurricanes.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/intro.shtml

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