# 3606
This morning we get a pretty good overview from the Washington Post on many of the concerns held by officials regarding the impending return of the novel H1N1 virus.
This is a long article, with a number of excellent quotes from the likes of John Brennan, Arnold Monto, Dr. William Schaffner and Marc Lipsitch.
Very much worth your time to follow the links and read in its entirety.
Bracing for return of swine flu pandemic
Second wave predicted to hit hard, and soon, in Northern Hemisphere
Monday, August 10, 2009
By Rob Stein, The Washington Post
The United States and other northern countries are bracing for a second wave of swine flu infections that could sicken millions of people and contribute to the hospitalization and deaths of thousands, including many children and young adults.
While flu viruses are notoriously capricious, making any firm predictions impossible, a second wave could hit the Northern Hemisphere within weeks and lead to major disruptions in schools, workplaces and hospitals, according to U.S. and international health officials.
"The virus is still around and ready to explode," said Dr. William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University School of Medicine influenza expert who advises federal health officials. "We're potentially looking at a very big mess."
There is no doubt that federal officials view the return of the novel H1N1 virus with no small amount of concern. The potential for harm is real: to individuals, to society, and to our economy.
But no one can really know how serious this threat is going to be until it arrives.
Given the ambiguity in the forecast, finding and promoting the right level of concern over this pandemic is a difficult job for reporters, bloggers, and for public health officials.
It’s something I struggle with every day. I don’t want to minimize the threat, but I certainly don’t want to over-hype it either.
And this is the same dilemma faced by public health officials.
If they over-state the case for concern, and this pandemic turns out to be mild, they will be accused of crying wolf. If they fail to warn the public, however, and this pandemic hits hard this fall they will be viewed as having failed the American public.
It is not an enviable position to be in. There are more ways to be wrong about this than there are to be right.
The truth is, all pandemics are local and the impacts vary.
What you or I experience this fall and winter may be completely different than what your neighbor, or the family across town, or friends in another state go through.
Most of us, history tells us, will come out of this pandemic intact. Our families and our friends, if sickened, will recover.
Even in 1918, 98% of the world survived.
But for some small percentage of people, this pandemic will undoubtedly have a high impact. This virus will attack, and kill, their loved ones.
For them, no matter how few people are ultimately killed by this virus, this will have been a severe pandemic.
Ironically, the better job that public health does in managing this pandemic, the more criticism they will receive when it is over for exaggerating the threat. If the vaccine works, if deaths are minimized, they will be roundly criticized for having scared us to death over `nothing’.
Proving that no good deed goes unpunished.
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