# 3383
Economic forecasting is a curious sport, one that I confess I don’t understand particularly well.
From what I can gather, though, players (economists) are afforded an unlimited number of swings at the `ball’ in the hopes that one day they will `connect’ and `hit one out of the park’.
`Swings and a miss’ are politely ignored. Keeping score of anything other than home runs is apparently gauche.
With that in mind we get another forecast from the World Bank on the economic impact of the Swine Flu Pandemic, reported by Jason Gale of Bloomberg.
Their consensus? The economic impact might be as severe as the 1968 Hong Kong Flu.
Or it might be worse. Or not as bad.
It depends.
And you can take that to the bank.
Pandemic Might Be as Severe as 1968 Hong Kong Flu (Update1)
By Jason Gale
June 23 (Bloomberg) -- The pandemic sparked by swine flu may be as severe as the Hong Kong flu of 1968-69 that cost an estimated 0.7 percent of global gross domestic product, according to the World Bank.
The new H1N1 flu strain might reduce second-quarter GDP by as much as 2.2 percent in Mexico if disruptions to businesses, including those in the restaurant, hotel and transportation industries, persist in the Mexico City region, the Washington- based lender said.
Transmission of the bug is likely to accelerate as the flu season begins in the Southern Hemisphere and again when it returns in the Northern Hemisphere, the bank said in a report released yesterday. As many as 1.5 million people die in a normal flu season worldwide, and even a mild new flu might add another 1.4 million deaths, the report said.
The report is entitled PROSPECTS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY and you’ll find the pandemic specific projections beginning on page 26.
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