# 3375
President Harry Truman once remarked that what he really wanted was a one-armed economist.
One who couldn’t say, “But, on the other hand . . .”
While practitioners of the dismal science rarely agree on anything, I doubt you will find many that see a pandemic as being a positive for a world’s economy already in recession.
Oxford Economics has released a forecast indicating that the swine flu, should it remain relatively mild, would still have a significant impact on the global economy.
Under reasonable assumptions about infection and death
rates (30% and 0.4% respectively), the duration of the
pandemic (six months from October 2009) and responses
by households and businesses to the pandemic, we
estimate that world GDP would be cut by around US$2.5
trillion in the six months of the pandemic, or 3.5% of 2009
GDP.
(PDF file. Click image to Download)
Meanwhile, at Personneltoday.com they are running an article that claims that the UK could see a significant impact from the pandemic.
Swine flu pandemic would cost over £2bn a day
22 June 2009 11:38
The swine flu pandemic could see over one third of the workforce out of action and cost employers £2.1bn a day - 10% more than previously expected.
A spokesman for the Department of Health said the government predicted the workforce could be reduced by up to 20% by the pandemic, but this could rise to 35% if all schools were forced to close.
When the virus first reached the UK, the government predicted the impact on the workforce would only be a 25% reduction.
A spokesman said: "The workforce could be reduced by 15-20% at the pandemic's peak. In the unlikely event that every school closed, this could rise to 35 per cent."
At the outbreak of the virus, The Federation of Small Businesses told Personnel Today if a quarter of the workforce was off work it would cost employers £1.5bn a day - and if over one-third of employees were unable to go to work this cost would rise to £2.1bn.
The spokesman added illness rates across the whole population could reach 50%.
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