# 3168
While the press is declaring the `swine flu crisis’ overblown and pillorying the WHO for raising the pandemic alert level, we continue to see evidence of rapid and sustained transmission of this new virus.
The CDC insists that it is too soon to say we’ve `dodged a bullet’ (and I believe them), and all eyes are on what happens over the next few months south of the equator.
Novel virus strains that appear in the spring have a nasty habit of returning in the fall (see Effect Measure on Swine flu: features of past pandemics).
Today we get an analysis from one of the heavy hitters in the the world of epidemiology and mathematical modeling of the spread of diseases: Professor Neil M. Ferguson, Professor of Mathematical Biology at Imperial College in London.
This report from the AP.
Rapid Spread of Swine Flu Justifies Warnings
Report says more swine flu cases than reported, rapid spread justified warnings
WASHINGTON May 11, 2009 (AP)
A new study concludes the swine flu's potential to spread justified the World Health Organization's decision to raise the global pandemic alert.
While WHO is reporting about 4,700 confirmed cases in 30 countries, the new analysis estimates there have been between 6,000 and 32,000 cases in Mexico alone.
Lead author Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, London, says the early analysis suggests the outbreak is going to be comparable to that of 20th century pandemics. Ferguson said it's difficult to quantify the human health impact at this stage.
I’ve not seen the study yet, only this news release.
Another take on this story, this time from Bloomberg.
Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says
By John Lauerman
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- The swine flu strain spreading around the world is about as severe as the influenza virus that caused a pandemic in 1957, scientists said today.
About four out of 1,000 people who were infected with the H1N1 strain in Mexico by late April died, according to a study in the journal Science that was led by Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College London. The 1957 “Asian flu” killed about 2 million people worldwide, scientists have said.
-- Editor: Angela Zimm
I’m going to be away from my desk for a few hours, but will try to find more on this story when I return.
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