# 3115
A good article this morning from the Washington Post, warning its readers that it is too soon to know just how this influenza outbreak will play out.
A hat tip to Jeremy on Flutrackers for posting this link.
Flu's True Severity Is Still Unknown
Don't Leap to Conclusions, WHO Warns
By Joel Achenbach and David Brown
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, May 2, 2009So is this new swine flu outbreak the next great plague, or just a global spasm of paranoia?
Are we seeing a pandemic or a panic?
By all means, follow the link to read the entire article.
There are several quotes, which are just too good not to highlight, however.
Jeffery Taubenberger, the National Institutes of Health researcher who reconstructed the 1918 influenza virus, said he is growing the new swine flu virus in his lab.
"We're very early on in figuring out what makes this virus tick. I am loath to make predictions about what an influenza virus that mutates so rapidly will do," he said. But he believes it will spread across the planet: "My prediction is that this strain will continue to spread, and it is very likely to become a pandemic virus, if it's not already a pandemic now. That does not mean that this has to be a very severe pandemic like 1918."
Michael T. Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota, said the situation is analogous to forecasting a hurricane when meteorologists know only that there is a high-low pressure gradient in the Atlantic. "Everyone in one week wants an answer as to what it will do. Anyone who gives you an answer right now, do not listen to them about anything else because you cannot trust them," Osterholm said.
Taubenberger and Osterholm are about as authoritative on the subject of influenza as you can get.
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