# 2768
When I began this blog in January of 2006, I expected to write 2, maybe 3 blogs a week. I underestimated the amount of news to cover badly.
In my first year, I actually ended up posting 337 blogs - or an average of just over 6 a week. In year's 2 and 3, I averaged about 1200 blogs per year; almost 24 blogs a week!
A lot of these entries are about `breaking news'. Like this morning's blog about the 5th Vietnamese province reporting a bird flu outbreak.
Important today, perhaps. But in the long run . . . not so much.
In contrast, however, each month I seem to report a couple of really important stories - usually about some scientific discovery, or study - that makes a big splash for a day or two, then gets lost in the clutter of new reports.
In an attempt to remedy this situation, from time to time I plan to recap important stories that -in my admittedly arbitrary opinion -deserve more than one day in the sun.
Last November, CIDRAP (Center For Infectious Disease Research & Policy) at the University of Minnesota released an important policy paper, authored by Nicholas S. Kelley, MSPH and Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH : The CIDRAP COAL REPORT.
Given the grave consequences our nation would face should portions of our electrical grid be disrupted during a pandemic, the CIDRAP COAL REPORT certainly deserves a second look.
Actually, the full title is:
Pandemic Influenza, Electricity, and The Coal Supply Chain
Addressing Crucial Preparedness Gaps In The United States.
This 66 page report (with extensive references) is thoughtful, well written, and certainly worthy of your attention.
The report is available HERE for free, but registration is required.
While the primary focus of this report is on the vulnerability of our electrical grid during a pandemic, the authors are quick to point out that the same problems could be felt across the entire spectrum of our JIT (Just-In-Time) Supply Chain.
But when it comes to the impact of shortages, nothing trumps our societal dependence upon electricity.
Half of the electricity generated in the United States comes from coal, and the mining and delivery of coal to generating plants is a highly complex process dependent upon a relatively small number of skilled workers.
Remove 40% of these employees from their jobs due to a pandemic, even for a few weeks, and serious shortfalls in electrical generation are likely.
Add in similar levels of absenteeism at oil refineries, aboard supertankers, and even in repair crews for power companies, and the ability of our nation to keep the power grid stable during a pandemic crisis falls into even greater doubt.
Disruptions in electrical generation due to coal shortages would be unlikely to manifest themselves until at least 60 days into a supply-chain crisis, although other pandemic-related interruptions could occur earlier.
Given the possibility of multiple pandemic waves over the time span of a year or longer, more than one coal delivery crisis could develop.
The authors make four recommendations they believe should be implemented to help reduce the impact of a pandemic upon the electrical grid.
- First, power-plants should increase coal stockpiles so that electrical generation can continue during longer periods of supply chain interruptions.
- Second, coal miners and support workers should be placed in the highest priority group for antiviral drugs and pandemic vaccines.
- Third, the nation should plan for disruptions in the coal supply chain.
- Fourth, the country should "anticipate and develop strategies for responding to disruptions in electrical service."
Here is opening to the CIDRAP article, by Robert Roos, on this paper's release. There is much to be gleaned from this report, and I heartily recommend that everyone take the time to read it in its entirety.
Report says pandemic will threaten coal, power supplies
Robert Roos
News Editor
Nov 20, 2008 (CIDRAP News) – A new report from the University of Minnesota warns that an influenza pandemic could disrupt the coal industry, thereby endangering the nation's significantly coal-dependent electric power system and everything that depends on it.
"Despite regional differences in coal usage, a pandemic is likely to break links in the coal supply chain, thus disrupting electrical generation. This has the potential to severely endanger the bulk electrical power system in most of the United States," says the report from the university's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), publisher of CIDRAP News.
The report says that current federal preparedness plans do not address the possibility of power supply problems resulting from reduced coal shipments during a pandemic. A key planning gap, it says, is that federal plans put coal industry workers among those last in line for pandemic vaccines and antiviral drugs.
The authors, CIDRAP research assistant Nicholas Kelley, MSPH, and CIDRAP Director Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH, recommend that power plants stockpile coal to last much longer than the average 30-day supply they have now and that the nation prepare now for disruptions in the coal-supply chain and electrical service. They also urge that coal industry workers be put in the highest priority group for pandemic vaccines and antivirals.
CIDRAP coal report (free registration required): "Pandemic Influenza, Electricity, and the Coal Supply: Addressing Crucial Preparedness Gaps in the United States"
The link to the CIDRAP COAL REPORT will remain in my recommended reading list, on my sidebar. I consider this report important enough that my readers shouldn't be surprised if I highlight it again sometime in the future.
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