# 2438
Increasingly we are hearing more talk about using the limited stock of pre-pandemic vaccines being held by various governments to inoculate high-risk first responders . . . before a pandemic starts.
The idea is that since it takes 6 weeks (and two vaccinations) to confer immunity - that health care workers could be `primed' with an initial shot now - and receive a `booster' shot once a pandemic begins.
They would, it is hoped, develop immunity in a matter of days, not weeks.
Since some of these vaccine stocks are approaching the end of their shelf life, it also makes sense to `use them or lose them'.
While the WHO (World Health Organization) has stopped short of recommending that countries stockpile (or deploy) a pre-pandemic vaccine obviously not all nations agree.
- Japan, which currently has about 20 million doses of a soon-to-expire pre-pandemic vaccine, is contemplating inoculating millions of their healthcare and critical infrastructure employees early next year.
- Switzerland has reportedly purchased 8 million doses of pre-pandemic vaccine, enough to inoculate their entire citizenry should they choose.
- Denmark, it was widely reported in January of 2007, ordered in enough pre-pandemic vaccine for half of their population.
- New Zealand has announced they had enough pre-pandemic vaccine on hand for 100,000 essential workers.
- The United States reportedly has enough pre-pandemic vaccines, based on several earlier clades of the H5N1 virus, to inoculate about 20 million essential workers.
- The UK reportedly has just over 3 million doses of pre-pandemic vaccine. Enough to `prime' their healthcare work force.
Over the past 24 hours there has been a bit of a media blitz on this story in the UK.
Experts recommend bird flu vaccination programme
Management in Practice 10:55
The Daily Mail - Health 10:48
Vaccinate against bird flu to prevent pandemic, say experts
The Irish News - News 08:42
The Scottish Herald 02:01
Sharp-eyed readers will note that we are seeing a new, and much higher, estimate of the number of people who could die in a pandemic in today's articles.
350 million.
While not the highest estimate that I've seen (Dmitri Lvov's estimate of 1 Billion holds that prize), it is five times higher than the recent World Bank estimate of 70 million.
The point here is, no one knows. One estimate is probably as good as the next right now.
We won't know until the next pandemic is over, how bad it really was.
It could start off mild, like in 1918, and grow more severe with the second and third wave. Or it could start off very severe, and lose virulence over time.
The 350 million deaths number, while high, isn't outrageously so.
In a severe pandemic, one a bit worse than 1918, it could well happen. But even 70 million deaths would be a human tragedy beyond anything we've seen in our lifetimes.
This report from Channel 4 News.
Jabs drive call against bird flu
Last Modified: 03 Nov 2008
Source: PA NewsPeople should be vaccinated against bird flu now to avoid the disastrous effects of a sudden global pandemic, experts have warned.
The World Health Organisation and national governments should give "urgent consideration" to priming potential victims with a preparatory jab, say influenza scientists.
Such a campaign would involve an initial vaccination to build up the immune system followed by a booster shot as soon as the first signs of a pandemic emerge.
People primed in advance would then be fully protected in a week instead of six weeks.
Writing in the journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, a team of international researchers says there may be no warning before deadly H5N1 bird flu explodes in the human population.
Scientists fear a pandemic could occur if the virus strain mutates and acquires the ability to transfer directly between people.
So far every victim of the virus is thought to have been in contact with infected birds.
Current vaccination strategies require two jabs spaced six weeks apart. But the experts, who include Professor Karl Nicholson, from the University of Leicester, warn that after six weeks it may be too late to prevent widespread loss of life.
Estimates of the effects of a bird flu pandemic have suggested that up to 350 million people around the world might die.
They concluded: "The maximum benefit from using a pre-pandemic vaccine may be gained from priming populations before there is evidence of a novel virus emerging and spreading, when systematic supply, distribution and vaccination strategies can be put in place."
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